yoda

SPC is monitoring Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front are forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley at the start of the period. This convection should have a negative impact on instability across the much of the moist sector during the day. In areas that are not impacted, weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from Georgia and the Carolinas into the central Appalachians. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely result in a severe threat. A potential for wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible. At this time, uncertainty is substantial as to exactly where the greatest severe potential will occur. As new runs come in, an upgrade to Slight may be needed. A mid-level low is forecast to move across the Northeast on Monday, as the associated trough moves into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of southern New England during the late morning and early afternoon before the front moves offshore.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 942 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 MDZ003-501-502-509-510-VAZ025>031-503-504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506- 152145- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0004.251017T0600Z-251017T1300Z/ Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 942 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 to 32 degrees are possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northwest and western Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coolest temperatures are likely in the valleys. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

That's a weird looking radar

Dallas loses to Carolina... Philly lost Thursday night... big big game for Commanders tomorrow night

Franklin fired https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46573030/penn-state-fires-head-coach-james-franklin-sources-say

@WxUSAF Franklin fired https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46573030/penn-state-fires-head-coach-james-franklin-sources-say

Allar done for the year https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/penn-state-becomes-first-fbs-team-in-last-30-years-to-lose-consecutive-games-as-at-least-a-20-point-favorite/ https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25259508-drew-allar-out-season-after-suffering-leg-injury-psus-loss-northwestern

Nice pictures. You might be out by my family's large farm out there if you are near Luray

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A coastal low pressure system will take shape off of the Southeast U.S. Coast tonight through midday Saturday, before moving north along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. An occasional shower or sprinkles could evolve Saturday into Saturday evening from southeast to northwest across the region. A light to moderate steadier rainfall could arrive in several bands overnight Saturday through Sunday night as the coastal low gets closer to the mid- Atlantic region and nearly stalls. Rain amounts could average 1 to 2 inches along and east of a line from Hagerstown to Warrenton to Fredericksburg. To the west of this line, one-half to three-quarters of an inch. The heaviest rainfall could reach the 3 to 3.5 inch amounts in places. The interaction between the departing area of high pressure off the New England Coast and the coastal low pressure system will result in stronger northeast winds to develop and persist through much of the weekend. An elongated trough of low pressure, accompanied by a few mid-level disturbances, will help to tighten the pressure gradient Saturday through Sunday to result in stronger northeasterly winds. Northeast winds will increase late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon with sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph gusting 25 to 30 mph. Winds could gust 35 to 40 mph over land within a several miles of the Chesapeake Bay shoreline. A big uncertainty remains in the track and intensity of coastal low, simultaneously, as it moves up the coast. Also, to make matters even less certain, is the interaction or phasing of the mid- level disturbances with the coastal low and the exact location of that occurrence. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Breezy and wet conditions likely continue into Monday, and perhaps even into the first half of Tuesday, as the coastal low meanders off the Delmarva Peninsula before eventually pulling further offshore on Tuesday. There seems to be a decent amount of agreement that precipitation should taper off by Tuesday afternoon as the low shift further to the east. However, it remain close enough that winds may still remain elevated for a couple days thereafter.

12z CMC very rainy too... retrograde back toward us on Monday

This is the new CMC precip maps... the old ones no longer work https://eccc-msc.github.io/msc-animet/?layers=GDPS.ETA_PN;0.75;0;1;0;1,GDPS.DIAG_NW_PT3H;0.75;0;1;0;1&extent=-11358064,1081878,-7522829,7804193&overlays=Boundaries&range=80,26,l,PT3H Pretty cool you can zoom way in too on the new precip maps as well

Piggybacking on this... the precip maps have changed for CMC https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html This doesn't exist anymore. Got an upgrade looks like... New link is there at the old one

Fwiw, 12z UKIE is a swing and a miss

I see a 30kt barb at DCA... looks like storm force winds on the Bay

12z GFS is quite rainy. Looks pretty windy as well on the Bay and Potomac

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 The system we have been monitoring (Invest 95L) over the tropical central Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized thunderstorm activity and a low-level center to be considered a tropical cyclone. This system is far from land, roughly 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. An ASCAT pass from around 12Z showed peak winds between 35 and 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Jerry. Convective bands are increasing around the center, and the strongest winds are on the storm's east side. Jerry is moving quickly westward at about 21 kt on the south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as Jerry nears the southwestern edge of the ridge. This should bring the core near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Around that time, the models show a deep-layer trough amplifying over the western Atlantic, which should erode the ridge. In response to the pattern change, Jerry is forecast to turn northward over the west-central Atlantic this weekend. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which have been performing quite well so far this year. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry as there is uncertainty on how close the core of the system will get to the islands later this week. The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the northern Leeward Islands. After the system passes by the islands, the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable upper-level wind pattern. For now, the official forecast shows no change in strength from days 3 to 5, but confidence is low for that portion of the intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf, and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that area later today or tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 11.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.5N 51.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.9N 54.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.5N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 19.8N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 44.6W ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

@andyhb

Nice win after a shaky 1st quarter

Frosty tonight out west URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1147 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 MDZ509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501-503-505-506-020000- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0008.251002T0600Z-251002T1300Z/ Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 1147 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Highland County. In West Virginia, Pendleton, Western Grant, and Western Mineral Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Just got off night shift... so a bit late as well DCA: +1.8 NYC: +1.4 BOS: +1.3 ORD: +2.5 ATL: +1.7 IAH: +1.8 DEN: +1.3 PHX: +1.9 SEA: +0.3

@mappy https://eos.org/articles/new-usgs-map-offers-an-interactive-look-at-the-rocks-beneath-our-feet I think you might like this