yoda

Tornado Watch likely in next hour or two for S WI/ N IL https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0791.html Mesoscale Discussion 0791 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151914Z - 152115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are expected within the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Cumulus continue to deepen both along a dryline and an area of confluence within the Mississippi Valley. Whether storms develop within the confluence or when the dryline reaches the Mississippi River remains a question. 40-50 kts of effective shear across these surface convergence zones will favor supercells as storms develop. Large to very large hail will be a concern as well as severe wind gusts. The 18Z DVN sounding sampled very steep mid-level lapse rates and a long hodograph. Tornado potential will also be present. Surface temperature/dewpoint spreads are near 20 F, but low-level shear and a supercellular mode will favor low-level rotation. The time frame of greater tornado potential will likely be 22-00Z when the low-level jet increases in southern Wisconsin. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 41418999 41579025 41819042 42309082 42909119 43299134 43549126 44009048 44358993 44438931 43978880 43168862 42128827 41798867 41418999 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

Mention of "some thunderstorms may be severe" in the updated zones for Friday night

Watch coming soon - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0788.html Mesoscale Discussion 0788 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia and much of Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151823Z - 152000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase over the next few hours. Multicells and supercells will be the primary storm mode, with severe wind and hail the main threats. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus along the WV/VA border, driven primarily by boundary layer destabilization, along with orographic lift associated with the Appalachians. Surface temperatures have already warmed into the mid to upper 70s F to the immediate lee of the Appalachians, where upper 60s F dewpoints, beneath the eastward extent of an EML plume, supports 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. The 17Z RNK observed sounding shows 8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and the freezing level around 600 mb, beneath where most of the CAPE resides, along with modestly elongated hodographs. Such conditions support supercells capable of severe gusts and large hail, including a few instances of 2+ inch in diameter stones. Given a gradually increasing severe threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX... LAT...LON 36608017 36768076 37298113 37938092 38388044 38797971 38967837 38617777 37937732 37257730 36797770 36637848 36608017 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ... ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks.

SLGT risk up for the entire LWX CWA for tomorrow on 1730z SPC OTLK. ENH knocking on the door of our western zones

Sounds like Tor Watch coming soon for parts of MN/WI per latest MCD https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0786.html

Oh Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ... ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Large-scale height rises are expected across the region, but diurnal heating and orographic effects will aid in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain this afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will favor a southeastward storm motion within an environment of moderate/locally strong instability. 35-45 kts of northwesterly deep shear is anticipated, supporting supercell structures and clusters, posing a risk for large hail and damaging winds. The overall hodograph structure and resulting storm motion appears favorable for some very large hail over 2" in diameter as well. ..Mosier.. 05/15/2025

Oh okay then - I know this is more just to the S and W of most of us... But still don't see hatched hail around here very often... @high risk @George BM @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

12z NAM Nest soundings suggest nastiness tomorrow evening into nighttime

Which ones?

I know we've mentioned the trigger issue, but damn, that 18z NAM sounding for DC metro at 00z Saturday

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/45146544/rb-derrick-henry-agrees-two-year-30m-extension-ravens Congratulations Ravens fans

What do you think of the MCS complex and increasing MLLR/hodographs early Saturday morning the 12z NAM comes up with?

Someone broke the 12z NAM Nest soundings at the end of its run 5000-6000+ SBCAPE because DPs are in the upper 70s

12z NAM continues with the significant hail in the SARS... probably overdone with SBCAPE - suggesting 4000 J/KG... but 21z Friday near DCA is 88/73 Then it really lights up again around 09z SAT... ML Lapse rates are near 8 C/KM and hodos quickly become curved and elongated

Some unheard of values for our region showing up on some of the 00z NAM soundings re SHIP... seeing 2.5 to 3.5 values. Supercell composite lights up quickly Friday afternoon and evening... and lots of significant hail showing up in the SARS, especially some 2" to 4" ones June 9 1990 00z IAD 3.50" is one of them @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 935 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE STANARDSVILLE, RUCKERSVILLE, AND DAWSONVILLE AREAS INCLUDING THE HIGHWAY 29 AND 33 CORRIDORS... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Greene County in central Virginia... * Until 1245 AM EDT. * At 935 PM EDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain in The Stanardsville, Ruckersville, and Dawsonville areas including the Highway 29 and 33 corridors. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for The Stanardsville, Ruckersville, and Dawsonville areas including the Highway 29 and 33 corridors. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management reported. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Stanardsville... Ruckersville... Lydia... Amicus... Mcmullen... Haneytown... Quinque... Saint George... Fletcher... Burtonville... Shady Grove... Newtown... Dawsonville... Mission Home... This includes the following Flood Prone Roads... Mutton Hollow Road near Spotswood Trail, Carpenters Mill Road at Route 607, Advance Mills Road and and Route 617, Westview Road and Deep Step Drive, Seminole Trail at White Run near Route 645, Route 621 along South River near Madison Road, 3300 Block of Spotswood Trail, Garth Road near Swift Run, Dyke Road near Blue Run near Spotswood Trail, South River Road near The South River, Dundee Road at The South River, Middle River Road near The Conway River, Octonia Road at South River Road and Celt Road near Amicus Road. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. && LAT...LON 3836 7843 3832 7838 3832 7836 3829 7836 3829 7835 3828 7835 3827 7829 3819 7837 3828 7866 3829 7865 3829 7864 3834 7855 3836 7854 3837 7853 3839 7852 3840 7850 3848 7845 3845 7844 3841 7844 3838 7842 FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1.5-2.5 INCHES IN 1 HOURS

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1007 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR MADISON COUNTY BETWEEN THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHWAY 29... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Madison County in northwestern Virginia... * Until 115 AM EDT. * At 1007 PM EDT, emergency management reported widespread flooding and water rescues in Madison County between the crest of the Blue Ridge and Highway 29. Between 4 and 7 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1 inch in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Madison County between the crest of the Blue Ridge and Highway 29. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management reported. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Madison... Big Meadows... Brightwood... Aylor... Banco... Haywood... Criglersville... Pratts... Syria... Graves Mill... Wolftown... Shelby... Aroda... Etlan... Hood... Rochelle... Oakpark... Leon... Twymans Mill... Fletcher... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. && LAT...LON 3837 7812 3833 7808 3831 7811 3830 7810 3827 7815 3827 7818 3826 7818 3823 7822 3823 7825 3828 7830 3828 7835 3832 7836 3837 7843 3845 7844 3848 7845 3853 7844 3856 7838 3859 7838 3863 7834 3840 7810 FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1 INCH IN 1 HOUR

Reverse psychology i see

Flood watch expanded northward and eastward Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 125 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025 MDZ501-502-510-VAZ028-031-050-051-053>056-501-502-505-506-526-527- WVZ050>053-503-504-130130- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0004.250513T1000Z-250514T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Eastern Garrett-Frederick VA-Clarke-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 125 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, including the following areas, Central and Eastern Allegany, Eastern Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany, Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Northern Fauquier, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Western Loudoun, and West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Jefferson, Morgan and Western Mineral. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - While showers will spread into the area today, a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected late tonight into Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely, with locally higher amounts possible along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains and Alleghenies. This rainfall may lead to scattered instances of flooding. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

12z CMC is a deluge... 3 to 5"... everybody over 2" except DE

12z GFS looks like 1.5" to 2.5" for many through 84

Morning AFD from LWX on the threat By Fri, another ULL will track eastward toward the Great Lakes. At the surface, a notable moisture return will occur from the Gulf of America into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Fri into Sat. This will be coupled with some of the warmest temperatures of the spring thus far (mid to upper 80s both days), resulting in modest instability. The combination of low-level moisture, steep low-level lapse rates, steep for the Mid-Atlantic mid-level lapse rates, and strong flow will yield the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Depending on timing of cold front, Saturday may be the more active day, or it may be to the south of the area. Will continue to monitor. Regardless, the end of the week could yield a couple days of severe weather. High pressure may briefly move in Sun, but uncertainties with frontal positioning and the next shortwave over the Ohio Valley exist.

Correct so far with your call re watches Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 310 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025 VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-507-508-121515- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0004.250513T0000Z-250514T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 310 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northwest, and western Virginia, including the following areas, in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rappahannock, Shenandoah and Warren. In western Virginia, Augusta and Rockingham. * WHEN...From this evening through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - While showers will spread into the area today, a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected tonight into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely, with locally higher amounts possible along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. This rainfall may lead to scattered instances of flooding. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

@Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe @high risk this sounds great for now lol (from the afternoon AFD from LWX) As we move toward the end of the week, a deep upper low and attendant strong surface low will slowly track eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. As this occurs, rich low-level moisture will be drawn north and east from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley and Mid- Atlantic. Simultaneously, a strong belt of mid-level flow (35-50 knots in the 700-500 hPa layer) will spread overtop that rich low- level moisture, advecting a remnant elevated mixed layer plume eastward as it does so. Rich low-level moisture, steeper than climatology mid-level lapse rates, and strong mid-level flow will result in an environment on Friday, and potentially even Saturday as well, characterized by both strong instability and strong deep layer shear. The EPS and GEPS ensemble means have 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE along with 35-50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. The GEFS show lesser instability and similar shear values, but have a well-know low bias when it comes to instability. This type of parameter space raises concerns for severe thunderstorms. While the parameter space being advertised at the moment by models is toward the higher end of what we typically see in this part of the country, we`re still at day 6 and 7, and there is plenty of time for things to change, especially when an upper level low is involved (which models notoriously struggle with in the long range). With an elevated mixed layer involved, there are also signs of stronger capping than we typically see, so that could complicate things as well. For now, the end of the week is a period to monitor for potential severe thunderstorms, with the expectation that the forecast can and will change this far out.