yoda

Mesoscale Discussion 0908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Areas affected...far northeast MT...western ND Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 101956Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected between 20-21 UTC along the dryline over eastern MN near the ND border. Explosive growth into significant-severe producing supercells is forecast late this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling band of agitated cumulus along the dryline over far eastern MT near Sydney. Temperatures immediately east of the dryline have warmed into the lower 80s with a deepening boundary layer featuring low to mid 60s deg F dewpoints. The 18 UTC Glasgow, MT raob showed a very steep 700-500 mb lapse rate (8.6 deg C/km). Modifying the raob for 19 UTC surface conditions east of the dryline near the ND/MT border (i.e., Sydney, MT) yielded 3300 J/kg MLCAPE with very little convective inhibition remaining. As the cap erodes, expecting explosive updraft growth quickly evolving into a few discrete supercells. Giant hail (3+ inches in diameter) is possible with the stronger storms as the organize and move northeast into a less deeply mixed and more moisture rich environment near the warm front. Supercell tornadoes will be possible in vicinity of the warm front, in addition to the hail/severe gust hazard. Other isolated storms are forecast to eventually develop southward along the dryline into parts of southwest ND and northwest SD. Large to giant hail will be the primary hazard with these storms before additional thunderstorm development into a severe squall line evolves later this evening. ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

I hear nothing here in Fairfax

First FW of the day BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 303 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 MDC013-110115- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0026.210610T1903Z-210611T0115Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Carroll MD- 303 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Warning for... Northeastern Carroll County in north central Maryland... * Until 915 PM EDT Thursday. * At 303 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Some locations that may experience flooding include... Westminster... Manchester... Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area.

Well the one near Thurmont in Frederick County just got warned ETA -- and so did the one up in Baltimore County

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and tonight across much of the northern and central Plains, especially across eastern Montana, the Dakotas, and Nebraska. All severe hazards are possible, including very large hail, wind gusts above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes. ...Northern/central Plains including Dakotas/Nebraska/E Montana... An active severe-weather day is expected across the region late this afternoon and tonight and have upgraded parts of the western Dakotas to a categorical Moderate Risk, with much of this regional risk expected to persist well through the late-night hours. 12Z upper-air analysis/soundings essentially sampled near-record moisture content by early/mid-June standards across the High Plains in terms of mean mixing ratios/850mb dewpoints, including locations such as Dodge City/North Platte/Rapid City/Bismarck/Glasgow Montana, although mid-level/700 mb temperatures were notably warm (near-record values) at these locations as well. Thunderstorms should develop initially this afternoon into early evening near the surface low and adjoining frontal segments over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Supercells capable of all hazards (tornado, large to giant hail, severe wind gusts) are expected in the first few hours of the convective cycle. This should be followed by a transition to one or more organized convective complexes with a dominant destructive-wind hazard, with isolated severe hail and possibly some tornado threat. During and after that transition, very damaging gusts to hurricane force may be observed through the evening and possibly the early overnight hours. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will overlie a corridor of moist/theta-e advection and diurnal heating south of the warm front and east of the low/cold front. This will contribute to MLCAPE strengthening into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (locally higher), amidst intensifying deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes reaching 35-50 kt). Low-level shear should be maximized along the warm front and east of the surface low across eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Farther south across portions of South Dakota/Nebraska and perhaps northeast Colorado, high-based supercells should form late this afternoon/early evening near the dryline/lee trough, offering significant hail and severe gusts. However, this activity may evolve upscale more quickly to a QLCS configuration with a dominant wind threat. Deep, well-mixed sub-cloud layers will support maintenance of both severe hail and gusts to the surface during earlier, relatively discrete stages, but also, foster quick cold-pool aggregations and rapid expansion. Forced ascent of a foregoing boundary layer containing 60s to near 70 F surface dew points, with MLCAPE commonly remaining above 2000 J/kg even well after sunset, will help to drive the severe-wind threat southeastward over much of Nebraska tonight.

Wow... 1630 SPC went all in... 45 hatched wind and hail with 10% tor in NW ND/extreme NE MT Though that's the smallest 45% hail contour region I've seen in a while lol

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0321 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1219 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Areas affected...portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic region Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 101616Z - 102215Z SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across the northern Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be common, but locally higher rates can not be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery through 1545Z showed an expanding cumulus field within an otherwise mostly clear environment across the Delmarva Peninsula into MD and southeastern PA. A few showers and thunderstorms have also popped up on regional radar imagery over northern Delaware Bay and along the Catocin Mountains of northern MD into the Appalachian chain of southern PA. PWATs within the pre-convective environment are 1.7 to 2.0 inches and 850-200 mb mean-layer flow is very weak across the entire region at less than 10 kt, which will support slow storm motions. Little CIN on the 12Z soundings from WAL and IAD suggest storm coverage will continue to increase with daytime heating with the front and local terrain acting as sources for lift. In addition, locally stronger easterly flow just behind the cold front may help to support near-stationary convection along the terrain of northern VA into northwestern MD and southern PA. Given the lack of speed shear with height, storms should not be organized in nature or long-lasting, but they should be rather efficient with rainfall production given high wet bulb zero heights of roughly 13 kft. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are very likely with localized rainfall rates up to 3 in/hr possible. In fact, rainfall rates from the HRRR support 1-2 inches of rain in 15 to 30 minutes which seems reasonable given the moist environment. Portions of the Delmarva into southern MD and southeastern PA received heavy rainfall yesterday and will be more susceptible to localized flash flooding today. While flash flooding is not expected to be widespread across the entire region, scattered to numerous slow moving thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall with several areas at risk for flash flooding, including the urban I-95 corridor from south of D.C. into northern DE with 2-4 inches expected through 22Z. Otto ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0321&yr=2021

LWX putting more counties in the FFW

Don't know if this had been posted yet... but Bernstein is retiring from WUSA9 weather... his last day was yesterday

No sprinkler?

Looks like June 6, 2020 (the 0100z SPC OTLK technically) was last time MOD risk was issued in the Dakotas/Montana... June 18, 2018 looks like the one before that No MOD risk issued on the 1300 SPC OTLK... but disco mentions potential wind driven one could be issued later

Sunny morning sky outside... better lead to some good storms this afternoon

Is this before the change to rain or before the 850 0C isotherm goes blasting by?

Pretty sure this is a made up in his mind theory

You get a FFW! Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 253 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 DCZ001-MDZ001-003>006-011-013-014-016>018-501>506-VAZ027-028-030-031- 052>054-501-505-506-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-101500- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0002.210610T1600Z-210611T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Garrett-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Waldorf, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Purcellville, Bayard, Sterling, Columbia, Ashburn, Mount Jackson, Front Royal, Leesburg, Russelldale, Grantsville, Lexington Park, Frostburg, Lusby, Montclair, Alexandria, Paw Paw, Washington, Warrenton, Franconia, Ridgeville, Mount Storm, Charles Town, Winchester, Damascus, Petersburg, Chantilly, Ballenger Creek, Huntingtown, College Park, Chesapeake Beach, Greenbelt, McLean, St. Charles, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Mountain Lake Park, Eldersburg, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Strasburg, Elk Garden, Odenton, Woodstock, Bethesda, Prince Frederick, Centreville, Camp Springs, California, Germantown, Rockville, Hagerstown, North Beach, Fort Ashby, Falls Church, Severn, Ellicott City, Annandale, Cockeysville, Gaithersburg, Headsville, Shepherdstown, Cumberland, Herndon, Annapolis, Keyser, Martinsburg, Westminster, Antioch, Dunkirk, Moorefield, Reisterstown, New Market, Severna Park, Berryville, Frederick, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Manassas, Reston, Baltimore, New Creek, Woodbridge, Romney, Lisbon, and Oakland 253 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of DC...Maryland...Virginia and West Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central and Eastern Allegany, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Extreme Western Allegany, Frederick MD, Garrett, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southern Baltimore, St. Marys and Washington. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Northern Fauquier, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Shenandoah, Warren and Western Loudoun. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant and Western Mineral. * From Noon EDT today through this evening * A cold front will drop southward into the area today. This front will become the focus for slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Because of the slow motion and ample moisture in the atmosphere, storms may drop 2 to 4 inches of rain a short period of time, resulting in flash flooding. * Heavy rainfall in a short amount of time can result in rapid rises of water in streams, creeks, and urban areas.

Afternoon LWX AFD says Monday maybe...

I do like the name of our newest member to the forum

This guy?

DCA 102 IAD 100 BWI 102 RIC 104

When there is a thunderstorm ongoing with heavy pouring rain, he/she will show up

Mappy was testing his maps... guess he failed lol

Today's SPC morning outlook disco

surprise Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 531 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 NCC061-022145- /O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210602T2145Z/ Duplin NC- 531 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUPLIN COUNTY... At 528 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Rose Hill, or 7 miles northeast of Wallace, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. At 515 PM, damage was reported near Teachey. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Beulaville, Sarecta and Greenevers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Thought I read somewhere that technically the Fujita scale went from 0-12 like the Beaufort scale?

EF6 here we come