yoda

0600Z spc disco Southern Appalachians through northern Mid Atlantic coast... Modest pre-frontal low-level moistening and, perhaps more notably, relatively warm layers aloft are generally forecast to limit warm sector boundary-layer destabilization today through tonight. However, given at least weak conditional instability, mid-level forcing for ascent along/ahead of the eastward advancing cold front will probably be sufficient to maintain or support new developing lines of fairly vigorous convection, particularly across the Cumberland Plateau and Allegheny Mountains vicinity into the northern Mid Atlantic coast by this evening. Coinciding with one belt of 50-70+ kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer propagating to the west of the Allegheny Mountains, and another developing to the lee of the Blue Ridge into the northern Mid Atlantic coast by this evening, this convection will contribute to the downward transfer of this momentum toward the surface. It seems probable that this will contribute to at least scattered, if not more widespread, damaging wind gusts.

So... maybe Monday night? From the morning LWX AFD: SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sct-nmrs morning showers expected Sunday in association with a strong low-lvl jet, then turning mainly dry during the afternoon. Temps could possibly reach into the low 80s for the first time this year. Remaining breezy/windy Sunday and Sunday night with low temperatures more typical of early June. Some showers are possible over the mountains and across northern areas. Deepning low pressure center over OH valley will track across the area Monday night bringing widespread showers and risk of thunderstorms late Monday through midnight Monday night. Strong low-level winds may pose a risk of damaging winds across the higher elevations where SPC has indicated a slight risk of severe weather Monday.

You should tweet Ian and ask him about going out west towards the Plains if you are going that far west

@nj2va approves From the SNE forum (h/t @brooklynwx99)

So... you'd be in the SE chasing the tornadoes instead of the snow in the SNE, right?

https://www.nhl.com/news/washington-capitals-carl-hagelin-injury-status/c-331366914

Where is it going to be located? I go to the one on Hilltop Village Center Drive alot

You get 6 to 10 inches from the slider

More confluence up north

So... right where we want it

@nj2va would not be pleased lol

Of course then the Euro tries for low teens in the city and single digits out west next Monday night and has highs for many at or below freezing on Tuesday

I mean if you want to be technical lol... the sounding at DCA at 174 is a heavy wet snow one. It's below freezing all the way down to the last like 50m lol

Looks like just light rain late as storm pulls away... 4 to 6 isolated 8 for most

At least we get some heavy snow for a little bit at 174

Oh so going to a place where they actually get snow and real cold

Sorry, 00z EPS member #18 is the correct choice

Euro is a mess for the CAPE storm

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 116 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 MDZ003>006-008-011-014-505>508-WVZ051>053-181430- /O.UPG.KLWX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220218T1500Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220218T1500Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 116 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 50 mph, becoming west to northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph after 3 AM. * WHERE...Portions of north-central and northeast Maryland including the Baltimore Metropolitan area, and the eastern West Virginia Panhandle. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Oh it appears I forgot my card at home... you got it tonight, right? Promise I'll pay you back... sometime lol

First mention of tornado threat in the AFD this afternoon too Showers should continue to overspread the area late this evening into tonight. QPF looks to be fairly light and flooding concerns remain low at this time but nonzero. Will continue to monitor radar trends over the next several hours to account for any possible flooding concerns to arise for later tonight. There continues to be a signal for two quasi-distinct lines of stronger, embedded showers late tonight and into early Friday morning. The initial line, associated with the trough should be entering the area by around midnight from the west and continue to move further east. The second line (likely the cold front) will follow behind that line by an hour or two. There is a possibility for a rumble of thunder for most of the area late tonight and into early Friday morning. If the lines of embedded showers meet with the increased SRH values (400+ 0-1 km) then there may pose a threat for an isolated tornado. Although, the most likely culprit for a SVR/SMW issuance would be for wind damage possibility with these gusty winds present throughout the night. The chances of a quick spin up are non-zero at this time. Ingredients would have to line up timing wise but there could be some disagreement there tonight.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 VAZ036>040-050>052-501-502-171700- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0005.220218T0300Z-220218T1100Z/ Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier- Including the cities of Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Warrenton, and Turnbull 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Nelson, Albemarle, Greene, Madison, Rappahannock, Orange, Culpeper, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Northern Fauquier and Southern Fauquier Counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-505-506- WVZ051>053-171700- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0005.220218T0300Z-220218T1500Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. Winds will quickly turn northwest behind a cold front after 3 AM. * WHERE...The Baltimore and Washington Metropolitan areas, northern Virginia, northern and central Maryland, and the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Lets get ready to WIND!!! URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 VAZ507-508-171700- /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0002.220217T2100Z-220218T1100Z/ Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Big Meadows and Wintergreen 349 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...South to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Borrowed this from the SNE forum... h/t @brooklynwx99