yoda

This was the early morning disco from LWX about today FWIW NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest analysis depicts a weak stationary front straddled northwest to southeast across the area. A stronger front and low pressure is located over the Great Lakes, with the low heading east and the front progressing southeast. Aloft, a weak shortwave is passing to the east with a second stronger shortwave over the Great Lakes. This is all embedded within a dominant northwest flow as a longwave trough remains to our northeast, and a ridge sits over the central Plains. Showers early this morning associated with the departing shortwave should dissipate shortly. The clouds and increased moisture over the region have kept temps in the higher 60s to lower 70s. This relatively high starting point will give us a boost, but clouds moving in from the MCS to our northwest will start overspreading the area this morning. This MCS likely will greatly affect our severe weather threat today as the strong shortwave and cold front moves into the region. If the MCS impact is minimal, with cloud cover relatively thin and brief and minimal if any showers, then our odds of a significant severe weather outbreak will be quite high thanks to ample CAPE combined with the high shear moving overhead. However, if the MCS holds together more and we have extended cloud cover and more showers/weakening storms, the high CAPE component will be harder to come by, which could potentially significantly damper the severe weather potential. Will need to watch progress of the system closely. Right now, areas least likely to be affected by the morning MCS appear to be the Baltimore area and points north and east, where an enhanced risk of severe weather is now in place from the SPC. This risk tapers to slight and then marginal further south and west, where the MCS influence is likely to be more substantial. Highs likely reach the mid-upper 80s, perhaps with spotty 90s, with higher temps of course more likely to fuel stronger storms later today. Best timing for storms looks to be very late afternoon and evening across the metro, assuming the MCS doesn`t disrupt CAPE too much.

Meanwhile in Albemarle County last night

Zones include severe wording with damaging winds and large hail

Some PDS TOR soundings on 00z NAM across the region FWIW

So about the 00z NAM soundings across the region from 21z to 03z... 00z NAM sounding for 00z tonight at KIAD = Yes, I know the usual caveats... but you don't see those everyday around here

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a risk for a tornado, will be possible from the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. ...Northeast through Middle Atlantic area... Upper pattern in this region will be characterized by a broad trough today. MCV/shortwave trough embedded within the synoptic trough will move from the lower Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic. At the surface a warm front will move northward through the Middle Atlantic, while a cold front advances southeast, reaching PA and the central Appalachians by evening. Thunderstorms should be in progress at the start of the period in association with the MCV over the southern portion of the Great Lakes. Other storms may be ongoing in the warm-advection regime north of the warm front over a portion of the Middle Atlantic. Widespread multi-layer clouds may precede the warm front. However, the warm sector should become moderately unstable during the afternoon with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE supported by the advection of richer low-level moisture and pockets of diabatic heating. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front in association with ascent attending the southeast-moving MCV as well as along the southeast-advancing cold front. This area will reside within belt of stronger mid-upper flow associated with the synoptic trough supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Therefore, some supercells may evolve along with line segments with bowing structures as activity develops southeast during the afternoon into the evening. Primary threat appears to be damaging wind and possibly some hail, though low-level hodographs will be sufficient for a few tornadoes, especially if sufficient instability can develop in vicinity of the warm front.

Enhanced risk for N VA/DC/MD today... 5/15/30

5:05 pm: There are twelve total positive cases, manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). Those are four players (including Turner) and eight staff members. Eleven of the twelve have been vaccinated, according to Martinez. Fortunately, no one involved feels seriously ill, which the skipper attributed to the high vaccination rate among those infected. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/phillies-nationals-game-postponed-due-to-covid-issues.html

However...

FWIW, confirmed SVR in St. Mary's County little while ago as spotters reported quarter sized hail in California

I never know with him. Sometimes its easy to spot his trolls... other times I really think he believes this stuff that she tweets out

Mesoscale Discussion 1378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Areas affected...portions of east-central and northeast MN...northern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 282209Z - 290015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Rapid development of supercell thunderstorms is anticipated in the next few hours, with a risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and potentially a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch will likely be issued prior to 00z. DISCUSSION...A warm front extended south/southeast across central/southern MN at 22z, and this front will continue to move east through this evening as a weak surface low moves east across central MN. Latest visible imagery reveals moderate/towering cumulus over central MN north of the Twin Cities area, embedded within a larger area of clouds over central/northern MN and northern WI. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop in the next few hours near the warm front and move southeast during the evening. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of 45-55 kts in the vicinity of the front will support intense supercells initially, and locally-enhanced 0-3 km SRH will be favorable for low-level rotation and potential for tornado development. Steep mid-level lapse rates will also support a risk for very large hail, and damaging winds are also expected. Current thinking is that the tornado threat will warrant a Tornado Watch for the first few hours after initiation given the near-storm environment, with eventual transition into a fast-moving MCS with widespread damaging wind potential later this evening/overnight. A Tornado Watch will likely be coordinated with affected NWS Weather Forecast Offices prior to 00z. ..Bunting/Goss.. 07/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

Really? You are going to use her as a source/link?

Pretty nice soundings on the 18z NAM for the region at 21z and 00z tomorrow

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon through tonight along a corridor from northeastern Minnesota across Wisconsin into southwest Lower Michigan. A few severe storms are also expected this afternoon over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Discussion... The only change this outlook update is to upgrade severe-wind probabilities from the southern half of Lake Michigan southeastward into northwest OH. Recent runs of the HRRR indicate an intense rear inflow jet late tonight as a bow moves southeastward across Lake Michigan into the Michiana vicinity. Confidence in a widespread severe-gust threat has increased and is depicted in the minor nudges upwards in probabilities. ..Smith.. 07/28/2021

Well written afternoon disco by LWX for tomorrow... but haven't seen some of that wording in a long time .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow`s forecast is a challenging one locally. A very strong MCS is expected to develop over the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes this evening into tonight. This MCS should eventually weaken overnight as it moves into a lower CAPE environment over the Ohio Valley. A remnant outflow boundary/convective debris will spread over at least northern portions of the area tomorrow morning, with a connectively enhanced speed max in the 700-500 hPa layer following immediately in its wake. There is a wide spread of possible solutions in model guidance with respect to subsequent development of storms across our area tomorrow. Some solutions try to refire storms along the leading edge of the remnant outflow as it sweeps eastward across the area. Other solutions keep this activity suppressed. Other solutions fire additional storms in the wake of the convective debris. Some solutions do not. The environment in the wake of the leftover convective debris as the convectively enhanced speed max moves overhead is concerning. Models such as the NAM and Euro spread a belt of 40-50 knot flow in the 700-500 hPa layer over the northern half of our CWA by around peak heating. If we were to destabilize and storms were to form in that type of environment, the potential is there for a significant severe weather event, with very high winds, large hail, and tornadoes all possible. However, there`s considerable disagreement amongst the various models as to if and where storms will form in the wake of what`s left of today`s Upper Midwest system. Strong MCSs are often not handled well by both the CAMs and global guidance, and any system that forms today will have a strong influence on our weather for tomorrow. As a result, confidence in the evolution of storms tomorrow remains low. Confidence should gradually increase over time as today`s system gets going and becomes better handled by model guidance. We`ll continue to refine our forecast for what is a low confidence, but also potentially high impact severe weather event tomorrow.

Most of VA was included in the SLGT risk and 5% tor

Mmmmm tasty disco Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a risk for a tornado, will be possible from the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic/Mid Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across the southern Great Lakes in association with an MCV. This mid-level feature embedded within northwesterly flow, is expected to result from a severe squall line over the western Great Lakes prior to the start of the period. In the low levels, a surface low initially over the central Great Lakes will develop eastward into New England late Thursday night. An attendant cold front will push southeast across a large part of the OH Valley with the trailing portion of the boundary extending into the central High Plains. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of convection from IN into PA through the early afternoon. A myriad of possible scenarios are evident in the latest convection-allowing model guidance in terms of the details of storm redevelopment during the afternoon. With those concerns stated, a moist airmass will extend from the Corn Belt eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states with 60s and lower 70s F dewpoints. Strong heating on the periphery of earlier cloud debris will result in a moderate to very unstable airmass (1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). A belt of strong westerly 700-mb flow is forecast to overspread the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states during the afternoon. Several linear clusters or a combination of linear clusters and supercells are possible from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states. Damaging gusts and tornadoes are possible with the more intense thunderstorms. Lower storm coverage and weaker deep-layer shear farther west over IL/MO will likely limit storm organization and the overall risk for severe thunderstorms.

SLGT risk moved south on 1730 update... includes all of LWX CWA. 5/5/15

SLGT risk to the southwest of NYC... MRGL for CT/RI and SE MA in 1730 update

Hmmm... updated morning discussion sounds intriguing for this afternoon and evening Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1035 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front stalled in the region today will be the focus of a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A much stronger front later Thursday and Thursday night will result in more widespread showers and storms. High pressure will return Friday and linger into the weekend, with cooler and drier air taking hold. Another system may approach early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid-morning update: Current visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the area, allowing strong daytime heating to occur. 12z IAD sounding shows steeper than climo mid-level lapse rates (6.5 C/km) and lots of dry air in the mid- upper levels. With strong daytime heating occurring, low- level lapse rates are expected to become very steep as well (exceeding 9.5 C/km). The sounding shows 1164 J/kg of DCAPE prior to daytime heating, and that value should only increase. The combination of steep low-level lapse rates, better than climo mid-level lapse rates, high DCAPE, and decent flow in the mid- levels suggests that damaging winds could be a threat with any storms this afternoon. Can`t rule out an instance or two of large hail with any stronger storms either, given the better than climo mid- level lapse rates, ample dry air in the mid- levels, and decent shear through a deep layer. In the absence of stronger forcing for ascent both aloft and at the surface, the smaller details with respect to placement and timing of storms remain a bit up in the air. We`ll continue to monitor trends through the remainder of the day.

Some pretty nice soundings showing up on 12z NAM for 21z THUR and 00z FRI across the region Like KMRB and KHGR at 21z THUR

Interesting...

Thursday... hmm... nice SPC map. I know it's i66 north for now... but can see it coming south some... some beefy wording in the morning day 2 disco too