yoda
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Been pouring the past hour here
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Looks like its raining down there
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/houston-recovery-mode-storm-kills-131840576.html
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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0283&yr=2024 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0283 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 135 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians/Blue Ridge Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 171735Z - 172335Z SUMMARY...Slow-moving shower activity with heavy rainfall rates will tend to increase in coverage this afternoon across areas of the central Appalachians including parts of the Blue Ridge. This coupled with moist antecedent conditions will promote a threat for some instances of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...A broad mid to upper-level trough over the OH Valley will continue to move gradually off to the northeast today toward the central Appalachians. Some generally weak DPVA/forcing associated with this will be interacting with modest diurnally-enhanced instability and a relatively moist airmass for broken areas of heavy showers. Radar imagery already shows some locally heavy shower activity impacting areas of southeast OH into southwest PA and down through central WV as the leading edge of relatively stronger forcing aloft arrives. Some expansion of this activity with a general increase in rainfall rates can be expected this afternoon as MUCAPE values increase to locally over 1000 J/kg and couple with smaller scale areas of more targeted moisture convergence in vicinity of a quasi-stationary front draped over the higher terrain. Relatively moist southeast flow will also provide a localized orographic component to the rainfall threat with southeast-facing slopes of the central Appalachians and portions of the Blue Ridge seeing pockets of more focused low-level forcing for slow-moving, but heavy shower activity. The rainfall rates should be efficiently high given the overall depth of moisture through the vertical column which was evidenced in 12Z RAOB data across the broader OH Valley this morning in connection to the aforementioned trough. The modest increase in instability will favor some shower activity capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger cells. Given the overall weak steering flow, and orographic nature of some of the convection, there may be a sufficient level of persistence to the showers to yield some excessive totals. This is being supported by the 12Z HREF guidance which suggests some of the heavier rates focusing over parts of southwest PA through the eastern WV/MD panhandles and northwest VA in vicinity of the Blue Ridge. Some spotty 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals will be possible by early this evening, and with moist antecedent conditions/lower FFG values in place, some instances of flash flooding will be possible. Orrison ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...
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Meanwhile in Houston
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Needed rain Heading into Saturday, a stronger shortwave moves into the southeast to pick up the stalled warm frontal boundary. Continued shower and thunderstorm activity is expected through day Saturday. Isolated flooding continues to be a concern with repeated rounds of slow moving showers. Around 1-2 inches of rain are expected through the duration of the weekend. Some areas could see closer to 2.5 inches, but confidence on exactly where is low as it depends on where the boundary will be Friday night into Saturday. For now, highest estimates are in portions of the Shenandoah Valley and Virginia Piedmont. Shower and thunderstorm coverage decreases through Saturday evening as the low moves off to the southeast, but rain likely continues into Sunday.
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LWX mentions Wednesday as next chance for some severe storms in the afternoon AFD Fairly potent system approaches the area by Wednesday, with a cold front advanced out ahead of the system. Guidance has been hinting at the opportunity for increased instability ahead of the frontal passage. Could see some thunderstorms develop, with some getting strong to severe. Still a lot of uncertainty with this system with respect to timing and intensity. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
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2 EF1s... pretty decent for around here
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It's been 28 years since Twister came to theaters? Wow
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Do northern stream s/w's bring about our better severe weather threats? There was an interesting tidbit at the end of this mornings AFD Upper level ridging tries to build back into the area Sunday into Monday bringing slightly drier conditions. Another front will follow with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Temperatures will continue to warm back above average during this time leading to the potential for greater instability for thunderstorm activity to feed off of. With a fairly active northern stream will continue to monitor for any severe weather or hydro threats within the extended period. Right now, there is no mention in the Day 4-8 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.
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looks to be intensifying slightly?
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Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1021 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0930 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Berryville 39.62N 78.23W 05/11/2024 Morgan WV 911 Call Center Several trees and wires blew down causing a couple of transformer fires in the 100 block of Rockwell Street. && Event Number LWX2403121
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Sure it's not a mirage?
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 942 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Washington County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Northeastern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 1015 PM EDT. * At 942 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles east of Hancock to 8 miles southeast of Berkeley Springs, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Hagerstown, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Municipal Stadium, Robinwood, Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, Ranson, Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Paramount-Long Meadow, Wilson-Conococheague, Williamsport, Mount Aetna, Mount Lena, San Mar, Harpers Ferry, Long Meadow, Kearneysville, and Saint James. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3967 7754 3953 7761 3932 7770 3931 7774 3925 7777 3949 7819 3972 7810 3972 7769 TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 294DEG 30KT 3970 7805 3953 7813 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
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SLGT risk still for areas east of the i81 corridor up to the Mason-Dixon line on the new day 1... 2/5/15
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Updated HWO from just before 2pm still hitting hard for tomorrow DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail are likely Thursday afternoon. There is the potential for considerable wind damage from 70 mph gusts and large hail. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday for strong to severe storms capable of producing wind gusts over 34 knots and large hail. Heavy rainfall Thursday could result in isolated instances of flooding.
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Right near KIAD
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06z NAM NEST is flagging PDS TOR soundings with the supercells it develops Thursday evening in N MD lol
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2/15/15 on new Day 2 for Thursday
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45% hatched wind and hail on new Day 1
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00z NAM NEST has some strong parameters between 18z Thursday and 01z Friday near DC metro down into C VA including EZF into S MD
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Well they are still hitting it hard in the HWO Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 657 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-081100- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 657 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Wednesday afternoon. There is the potential for considerable storm damage from 70 mph gusts and large hail, but confidence is low at this time. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail are likely Thursday afternoon. There is the potential for considerable wind damage from 70 mph gusts and large hail. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday and Thursday for strong to severe storms capable of producing wind gusts over 35 knots and hail. Heavy rainfall Wednesday through Thursday could result in isolated to scattered instances of flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
