yoda

SLGT risk on new Day 1 from N VA north into C PA

Torrential downpours right now

06z NAM NEST sim radar from around 19z WED to around 02z THUR looks nice

Sounds like a break is coming

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft had difficulty locating the center of Grace early this morning. The last few visible satellite images along with 0200Z ASCAT wind data indicated that a lee-side surface low had formed south of the western tip of Haiti. That feature has gradually been pulling northward closer to the deep convection that has developed near the well-defined mid-level circulation center. The initial position is the midpoint between the recon position in the latest vortex message and the mid-level circulation noted in passive microwave imagery. The aircraft also found some patches of 925-mb flight-level winds of 48-51 kt, which equates to surface winds of 36-38 kt. Reliable SFMR surface winds obtained by the aircraft were also in the 36-38-kt range. Based on these data, Grace was upgraded back to a 35-kt tropical storm at 0600 UTC. Regardless of Grace's exact intensity right now, the immediate threat is still torrential rainfall across western Hispaniola today and over Jamaica this afternoon and tonight, which will likely cause severe flooding in some locations. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/14 kt. A strong mid-level ridge is forecast to build westward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days, which should keep Grace on a westward or west-northwestward track through the 120-h forecast period. Only a very sight southward shift in the previous forecast track was made, which was due primarily to the new estimated southerly initial position, and the new NHC forecast track lies along the northern edge of model guidance envelope. Once Grace passes Jamaica in 12-18 hours, the cyclone will be passing over water temperatures near 30 deg C and into a more divergent upper-level wind flow pattern. These two favorable conditions should allow for Grace to slowly intensify and possibly be near hurricane strength by the time the cyclone reaches the Yucatan peninsula in about 48 hours. Thereafter, Grace will weaken as it pass over Yucatan, and then re-strengthen some over the Bay of Campeche before reaching mainland Mexico in about 96 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola and over Jamaica on today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba today, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba this evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 18.2N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 18.6N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 19.1N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 19.7N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 20.4N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/0600Z 21.4N 92.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 21/0600Z 22.0N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 22.3N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...GRACE CONTINUING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT HEADS TOWARD JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINS CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 75.4W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward to Punta Allen.

Morning LWX disco re Fred [Quote] .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of Fred are forecast to track up the western slope of the Appalachians Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain spreading mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The axis of heaviest rainfall will be determined by the exact track of Fred and speed as it lifts northward, but with the tropical airmass in place with ample moisture, several inches of rain will be possible with a threat for flooding. Current thinking is the western half of our CWA will favor a greater risk of flooding given the latest forecast track of Fred and the assistance of terrain along the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge Mountains. As with many tropical systems, there will be sufficient wind shear in the atmosphere as it tracks to our west. The threat for any thunderstorms that develop to the east of the track will be capable of turning severe, and perhaps spawn tornadoes. Again, the exact track and evolution of the system will be key is narrowing down this threat over the next 24 hours. The Storm Prediction Center highlights much of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe storms Wednesday into Wednesday night, with damaging winds and tornadoes highlighted as the main threats. The remnants of Fred will continue to progress northward toward the Mason Dixon Line and Pennsylvania into Wednesday night, with a continued heavy rainfall and flooding threat across the area. Model guidance progresses Fred to our north by Thursday morning, allowing for decreasing rain chances to emerge in its wake. We`ll remain on the eastern flank of the broad upper trough, so as instability builds Thursday afternoon/evening, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the mountains. [/Quote]

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 Earlier this evening Henri was undergoing a sheared bursting pattern, with intermittent deep convection trying to develop near the center, but northwesterly shear would quickly diminish the convective coverage. However, over the past several hours the convection has become more persistent, and covers at least the southeastern portion of the low-level center. As such, the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now both 3.0 (45 kt), and therefore 45 kt will be the initial advisory intensity. Henri is forecast to remain over warm waters and in an environment of light to moderate northerly shear for the next 24 h, so some strengthening is expected during that time. After 24 h, global models indicate that the shear magnitude will double, which should prevent any further strengthening and possibly weaken the cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted a little higher than the previous due to both the increase in initial intensity, and slight increase in the model intensity guidance. This forecast closely follows the LGEM solution and is just a little lower than the IVCN consensus. The tropical storm continues to move slowly southwest, or 240/04 kt to the southeast of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to shift to the east over the next several days, which would result in the tropical storm making a gradual clockwise turn throughout much of the forecast period. Tonight, Henri is forecast to turn westward with a increase in forward motion and pass well south of Bermuda. In a few days, the cyclone should turn to the northwest then north, followed by a turn to the northeast around the western periphery of the ridge. There continues to be some spread in how far west Henri will go before it begins to turn to the north, and the latest guidance has made a slight shift to the left. The official NHC forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, then is a little left of it thereafter, yet still remains to the right of the bulk of the consensus guidance beyond 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.6N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 30.4N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 30.8N 69.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 31.6N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 34.0N 69.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HENRI STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 63.7W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Day 2 MRGL risk for all... 2% tor and 5% wind

Late Wednesday into Thursday could be interesting depending on track of Fred

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1242 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Northern Arlington County in northern Virginia... Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... * Until 345 AM EDT. * At 1242 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Arlington... Centreville... Bethesda... Annandale... College Park... Fairfax... Langley Park... Vienna... Forestville... Falls Church... Bladensburg... Mantua... Pimmit Hills... Mclean... Rosslyn... Howard University... Fort Totten... Gallaudet University... RFK Stadium... Burke

Yup just came across my phone... my brother in West Springfield says its pouring buckets for awhile... here in Fairfax just started where I am

How was the TD?

Lol Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 The interaction with the landmass of Cuba has significantly disrupted the circulation of Fred. In fact, radar data from Cuba, satellite images, earlier ASCAT data, and surface observations suggest that the system is likely an open trough with the strongest winds and deep convection occurring to the south of central Cuba. Fred is being maintained as a tropical depression for now, but data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters later this morning will likely confirm if it is a depression or not. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. Bands of heavy rain are now spreading across the Florida Keys. The initial motion of 295/11 kt is highly uncertain since its not clear if Fred has a center. Even though the storm has moved farther west than previously expected, the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed much. Fred is expected to turn northwestward by tonight and northward by Sunday night as the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The new track forecast has been nudged to the west again to be in better agreement with the latest model consensus aids. Based on the new track forecast, Fred is expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys later today and make landfall along the western Florida Panhandle or Alabama coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Although Fred is very disorganized at the moment, the global models show the circulation becoming better defined tonight or on Sunday as the cyclone moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in slightly lower wind shear conditions. The storm is expected to strengthen some during the next couple of days, but significant intensification seems unlikely as southerly shear is anticipated to increase before the system reaches the Gulf coast on Monday. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite images show an asymmetric cyclone with most of the associated convection and stronger winds on its east side while Fred moves across the Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, steady weakening is expected, and Fred is likely to dissipate by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding, across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lower Florida Keys later today, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 23.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 24.0N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 25.4N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 27.0N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 28.4N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 29.8N 87.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 30.9N 87.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 34.4N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Not much strengthening with Grace either going on per 5am disco Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 The cyclone has become a little better organized overnight, with an area of concentrated convection persisting over the center for the past several hours. The system remains compact, with the convective canopy about 100 n mi in diameter, while earlier ASCAT data revealed winds greater than 25 kt extended only about 30 n mi from its center, with peak winds of 27 kt. Despite the weaker maximum winds sampled earlier this evening, the increase in organization of such a small system has likely produced a notable increase in the surface winds near the center. In addition the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON suggest that the intensity is now somewhere between 30 and 45 kt. Based on a conservative blend of these values, it is estimated that the Tropical Depression Seven has strengthened into 35-kt Tropical Storm Grace. Grace continues to move quickly westward, with an initial motion of 280/19 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should continue to steer it westward for the next few days. Beyond that time, the forecast models begin to diverge in their track solutions, as they vary in the strength of the ridge. Overall, the models have trended toward a stronger, more persistent ridge to the north of the cyclone for the latter half of the forecast period, and as such the model solutions are generally showing a track that lies a bit south of the previous runs for those time periods. The official NHC forecast track is little changed through 72 h and lies near the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Beyond 72 h, the forecast track has been shifted slightly to the south, but still lies to north of the consensus model tracks. The earlier bout of wind shear that had entrained surrounding dry air into Grace appears to have abated, at least in the short term. And, global models indicate that the shear will remain low for about the next 24-36 h while the cyclone moves over increasing SSTs. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that strengthening should occur over the next day or so. Thereafter, the intensity forecast becomes somewhat complicated as the system is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough while possibly crossing the Greater Antilles at the same time. Slight weakening is indicated in the NHC intensity forecast as the system crosses the northern portion of the Dominican Republic early next week. Thereafter, moderate to strong northerly shear is forecast to impact Grace as the system moves into the flow on the western side of an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic. This shear should prevent any further strengthening through the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast is a little lower than a blend of the NOAA HCCA and IVCN consensus, as there is likely a high bias from the HWRF in these solutions. The latter portion of the NHC intensity forecast is of lower-than-normal confidence due to the potential for a longer amount of time over the rugged terrain of the Greater Antilles than indicated, and also due to the fragile nature of the small cyclone and the possible effects of the stronger shear later in the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible over the British Virgin Islands on Sunday. The risk of strong winds will then spread westward to the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.8N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.2N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.9N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.7N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.3N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 18.9N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z 19.8N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 21.9N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0600Z 24.5N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Hello tiny Grace BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GRACE... ...EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 55.6W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 55.6 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the west with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Weakening is expected early next week as the system interacts with the Greater Antilles. Grace is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

@MillvilleWx That looks great... probably spent a couple thousand for that delicious food lol

Question is, as was stated in the 5pm disco, is track. Path for now is same that Fred took, which may cause TD 7 to not intensify as much

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 547 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0543 PM HAIL 1 SSE OAKTON 38.88N 77.29W 08/13/2021 M1.75 INCH FAIRFAX VA TRAINED SPOTTER

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 546 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-153-510-600-610-683-685-132200- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0410.000000T0000Z-210813T2200Z/ District of Columbia DC-Montgomery MD-Prince Georges MD- City of Fairfax VA-Arlington VA-City of Falls Church VA-Fairfax VA- City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA- City of Alexandria VA- 546 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN PRINCE GEORGES...ARLINGTON...FAIRFAX...AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...THE CITY OF FAIRFAX...THE CITY OF FALLS CHURCH... THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK...THE CITY OF MANASSAS AND THE CITY OF ALEXANDRIA... At 545 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from College Park to near Centreville, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts, particularly near Oakton, Fairfax, Reston and Vienna. Golf ball size hail and trees and power lines blown down have been reported with this storm. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Arlington, Alexandria, Centreville, Dale City, Bethesda, Reston, Bowie, Annandale, Springfield, College Park, Fort Washington, Greenbelt, Fairfax, Langley Park, Beltsville, Fort Hunt, Vienna, Groveton, Forestville and Falls Church.

DCAPE between 1300 and 1500 too...