yoda

BOX already issued HLS https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS81-KBOX.shtml

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the south shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet eastward to Montauk, the north shore of Long Island from Kings Point eastward to Montauk, and from Kings Point eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Long Island from Fire Island Inlet eastward and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward. A Hurricane Watch has also been issued from New Haven, Connecticut, eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet, west of Port Jefferson Harbor, and west of New Haven. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk * North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk * Kings Point New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk * North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk * New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York * West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York * West of New Haven Connecticut

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 452 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 800 AM EDT. * At 452 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Frederick... Thurmont... Walkersville... Braddock Heights... Clover Hill... Wolfsville... Myersville... Woodsboro... Lewistown... Bloomfield... Utica... Middletown In Frederick Md... Pleasant Walk... Bolivar... This includes the following Flood Prone Roads: Lenhart Road near Fishing Creek... Wilhide Road near Hunting Creek... Blacks Mill Road at Hessong Bridge Road... Retreat Road near Glade Creek... Stottlemeyer Road near Middle Creek... Brethren Church Road near Catoctin Creek... Shank Road near Catoctin Creek... Station Road near Catoctin Creek...

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Henri's low-level center has been peaking out from under the north side of the deep convective mass, resulting from continued 20-25 kt of northerly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 55 kt based on T3.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Henri still has a motion toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt, but it is about ready to make the sharp right turn that we've been expecting. A shortwave trough currently over the central Appalachians is forecast to close off by Saturday, with Henri accelerating northward on the east side of this feature through the weekend. Some global models show Henri merging with the mid-/upper-level low as the cyclone approaches southern New England, which induces a slight bend of Henri's forecast track to the left. Nearly all track models now show Henri's center reaching the coast of southern New England, and the new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward in the direction of HCCA and the other consensus aids. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada. The strong shear affecting Henri is forecast to begin weakening later today, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it could drop to less than 10 kt in about 36 hours. In addition, Henri will be traversing very warm waters for the next 48 hours before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated for the next 2 days, with Henri likely to become a hurricane by Saturday. After 48 hours, Henri's expected slower motion over the colder water south of New England should induce quick weakening, but it may not be quick enough to keep Henri from reaching the coast as a hurricane. Faster weakening is anticipated after Henri's center moves over land, and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that deep convection could dissipate by day 4, making Henri a post-tropical low at that time. Global models suggest that Henri may dissipate by day 5, but for the time being a day 5 point is being kept for continuity. Based on the new forecast, tropical-storm-force wind radii will be approaching the coast of southern New England in about 48 hours. Given the still-present uncertainties in Henri's future track and intensity and the hazards that the storm may cause, storm surge and hurricane watches are now being issued for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Hurricane and storm surge watches are now in effect for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 30.2N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT TO MONTAUK * KINGS POINT NEW YORK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK * WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR NEW YORK * WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT

Then why does the 11pm disco say otherwise? " Transition to a post-tropical storm is expected to begin shortly thereafter which should be sometime in the 96-h to 120-h points as deep convection ceases over the storm over cold SSTs As noted previously, the wind field of Henri is expected to expand, especially as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough located to its west. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. "

Hurricane Watches coming shortly I bet on the 5am adv

Do not want

Maybe the ghost of James is willing this up to you guys? Sorry if that causes an issue with my post... but you know he would relish this

Already raining

I'm hoping for some nighttime storms... always nice to have thunder, lightning, and heavy rain as you are falling asleep

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 211 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 DCZ001-MDZ013-503-504-VAZ036>040-050>056-501-502-505>508-200215- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0011.210820T0600Z-210820T1600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock- Orange-Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Bethesda, Bowie, Arlington, Manassas, Damascus, Falls Church, Purcellville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Chantilly, Orange, Culpeper, Centreville, Wintergreen, Sterling, College Park, Fredericksburg, Falmouth, Herndon, Ashburn, Greenbelt, Germantown, Leesburg, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Lake Ridge, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Laurel, Reston, Montclair, Turnbull, Madison, Alexandria, Clinton, Woodbridge, Stanardsville, Washington, Annandale, Warrenton, Big Meadows, Gaithersburg, Gordonsville, and Franconia 211 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of DC, central Maryland and Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In central Maryland, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Montgomery and Prince Georges. In Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Orange, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Western Loudoun. * From 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday morning. * Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected. Although isolated thunderstorms capable of heavy rain are possible this evening near and southwest of the DC metro area, the bulk of the threat is expected to be overnight into Friday morning. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches per hour. * Heavy rainfall may result in rapid rises on streams, creeks, and in urban and poor drainage areas. This will especially be the case where repetitive or persistent thunderstorm activity occurs.

Yay! You win the prize of a FFW!

Making landfall at 80mph... and might be one of those rare (I think? Someone correctvme if I'm wrong) TCs to become a new storm in the Pacific basin Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 After a brief convective hiatus between 0400-0700 UTC, deep convection in the inner-core region has increased and become better organized during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Grace more than 4 hours ago reported a central pressure of 986 mb -- down 2 mb from previous passes -- and a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 74 kt on its last leg northbound around 0500 UTC. The 74-kt flight-level wind equates to about a 67-kt surface wind speed. These data supported maintaining a 70-kt intensity at 0600 UTC. The upper-level outflow remains symmetrical and has been expanding somewhat over the past few hours. The initial motion is 280/15 kt based on the earlier recon fixes and passive microwave satellite data. Grace should continue to move generally westward for the next 48 hours, crossing the coast of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula within the next couple of hours, followed by a track across the Yucatan and emergence over the Bay of Campeche by 24 hours, with a subsequent landfall along the eastern coast of mainland Mexico shortly after the 48-hour forecast period. This track scenario is consistent with the latest 0000 UTC global and regional models, which show the strong deep-layer ridge to the north of Grace maintaining its expansive presence across the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and northern Mexico. After the second landfall, Grace is expected to turn west-southwestward and dissipate over the mountains of central Mexico by 72 hours. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies along the northern edge of the tightly packed consensus track models. Given the recent improvement in Grace's inner-core convective structure noted in high-resolution infrared satellite imagery, some slight strengthening to 75 kt could still occur just prior to landfall this morning. Weakening will commence once Grace moves inland over Yucatan, with re-strengthening expected after the cyclone emerges over the Bay of Campeche where the vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt. Grace is expected to be a hurricane when the second landfall occurs along the coast of mainland Mexico, with the cyclone possibly reaching a peak intensity of 75 kt shortly after the 48-hour period. After final landfall in mainland Mexico, Grace should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by 72 hours, if not sooner. The remnants of Grace are expected to emerge over the eastern North Pacific and possibly re-develop there, but the uncertainty of whether this will be the original center or a new center precludes forecast points over the Pacific at this time. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for portions of the Hurricane Watch area of mainland Mexico later this morning or afternoon. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for part of this area. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 20.0N 87.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 20/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 20.1N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/1800Z 19.7N 100.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

That's what the kamala website is for lol The 1300z OTLK is up on there now

SLGT risk extended southward on 1300z OTLK towards RIC 5% tor moved south as well

Mesoscale Discussion 1550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Areas affected...Parts of the eastern West Virginia Panhandle...northern Virginia...central Maryland and adjacent south central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181246Z - 181445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The development of occasional isolated supercell structures with the potential to produce tornadoes (generally short-lived) may increase through 11 am-1 pm EDT, mainly west through northwest of the District of Columbia into the higher terrain around Martinsburg, WV and Hagerstown, MD. It is not yet certain a watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...The remnant surface low of Fred has migrated northward into areas south/southeast of Parkersburg, WV during the past few hours. As this has occurred, very moist boundary layer has advected northwestward across the Mid Atlantic region. This includes dew points as high as the mid 70s F into the higher terrain centered around the Martinsburg, WV vicinity, where low-level convergence is becoming focused, and an area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to overspread through 15-17Z. Beneath a narrow belt of 30+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, this also appears likely to coincide with where clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will become maximized, with the terrain contributing to the maintenance of backed/southeasterly near surface flow. As breaks in the overcast allow for insolation to contribute to boundary-layer destabilization, it appears that the environment may become increasingly conducive to supercell structures with the potential to produce relatively short-lived tornadoes. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/18/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

MD out... 40 percent chance of watch. For BR into i81 corridor

5am disco from NHC does make note of it and states that New England coast should keep an eye on it

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 There's been little change in Henri's satellite appearance this morning. The surface center is still located just to the northwest of a gradually expanding central dense overcast, and there still appears to be an eye-like feature in the Bermuda Doppler radar presentation. However, there are no indications in the GOES-16 BD-curve enhanced infrared images of a developing warm spot. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain steady, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Although the surrounding thermodynamic environment is ripe for further significant development, moderate northwesterly shear continues to impinge on the cyclone causing difficulty in inner-core convective development. Consequently, little change in strength is expected during the next couple days, and in fact the statistical SHIPS model indicates an increase in a more northerly shear component on Thursday. By Saturday afternoon, however, the shear should decrease as the cyclone slides beneath an upper ridge axis off of the southeast U.S. coast. Henri is expected to further intensity through the remaining period as the upper-wind flow becomes much more diffluent. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the SHIPS model and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach aid after the 60-hour period. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/7 kt. A high amplitude mid- to upper-level anticyclone situated north-northeast of Henri should steer the cyclone toward the west during the next 36 hours, or so. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward in response to a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving over the northeastern U.S. As a result of the change in the synoptic steering pattern, Henri should turn toward the northwest, north, and then northeast through the remaining portion of the forecast. With so much uncertainty or spread in the global and regional models beyond day 3, the best approach at this point is to base the NHC forecast on the better performing multi-model consensus guidance, which has once again shifted a bit to the left of the previous track forecast. I think it's worth noting that the GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on subsequent advisories. Due to the increased uncertainty in the track forecast, interests along the New England coast should monitor the progress of Henri. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 30.1N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 29.9N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 29.8N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 30.4N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 31.4N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 33.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 37.6N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 40.5N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible today across portions of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms associated with strong winds and hail may also occur across parts of the Intermountain West, and over portions of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic... The remnants of Tropical Depression Fred are forecast to move north across the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, with the center of circulation located over West Virginia by the start of the period. Deep tropical moisture will advect northward with low to mid 70s surface dewpoints expected by early afternoon. Some cloud breaks and modest surface heating should be more than enough to support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg through the day. High-resolution and regional guidance are in good agreement that surface wind fields in the northeastern quadrant of the remnant low will remain strong through much of the day. A 40 kt mid-level speed max should also enhance low- and mid-level shear across much of PA, MD, and northern VA, where model soundings show 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. The combination of sufficient buoyancy and strong low-level shear should support multiple supercells with the potential for a few tornadoes and isolated strong wind gusts through the afternoon/early evening.