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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the disturbance has not become better organized since the last advisory. What is passing for the center is an elongated trough extending from the northeastern Yucatan peninsula to near 25N 84W with several embedded vorticity maxima, and the center position for this advisory is a mean position along this trough. The aircraft did not find any tropical-storm-force winds during its mission. However, Doppler wind data from the Key West WSR-88D radar suggests 35-kt winds are occuring in the convective cluster near western Cuba about 150 n mi east of the center. Based on this, the system has not developed the structure of a tropical cyclone and remains a 35-kt potential tropical cyclone. It should be noted that the initial 34-kt wind radii are a little deceiving, as those winds are only occurring over a small area well east of the center. While the initial motion is still somewhat uncertain, it appears to be a little faster toward the northeast at 040/6 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy from the last advisory. The disturbance is now encountering the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the guidance is in good agreement that it should move at a faster forward speed toward the northeast during the next 48-72 h. Based on this, the forecast track continues to bring the system across the southern or central Florida Peninsula on Saturday. After 48-72 h, the system should move east- northeastward across the western Atlantic. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. It is still possible that there could be erratic motion due to center re-formation caused by convective bursts. Strong southwesterly vertical shear is forecast to continue until the system reaches the Florida Peninsula. However, it remains likely that convective bursts near the center will create enough organized convection and improved circulation for the system to become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. This could also cause slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little more strengthening is again forecast over the Atlantic, due primarily to interaction with a mid-latitude trough. This interaction will eventually lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete at about 96 h. The new intensity forecast again has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible across the northwestern Bahamas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in western Cuba this afternoon and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba this afternoon and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.0N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/0600Z 24.4N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 05/1800Z 30.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 32.0N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 33.1N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 34.0N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1800Z 35.5N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

I had fallen asleep around 830... got woke up by this deluge outside

The one by Warrenton probably could use a STW soon imo

Probably already have an overturned airmass... but those two storms out in N Fauquier County are decent

Power back on A ton of wind and hail reports today... SLGT definitely verified and the STWatch did easily as well

Power just went out

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 459 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 MDC003-009-033-022145- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-220602T2145Z/ Anne Arundel MD-Calvert MD-Prince Georges MD- 459 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ANNE ARUNDEL...NORTHWESTERN CALVERT AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTIES... At 458 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dunkirk, or near Chesapeake Beach, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Chesapeake Beach, Deale, Breezy Point, Dunkirk, Huntingtown, Owings, Baden, Aquasco, Friendship, Lower Marlboro, Tracys Landing, Sunderland and Mount Harmony. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Looks like one more line coming in for DC and south

Do tell

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 418 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Central Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Northern Arlington County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 418 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bethesda, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Bethesda, Bowie, College Park, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Forestville, Largo, Coral Hills, Bladensburg, Upper Marlboro, Mclean, University of Maryland, Fedex Field, Howard University, Gallaudet University, American Legion Bridge, Fort Totten, Rosslyn and RFK Stadium.

Me: in Amazon Management Chime Room alerting the station to the severe weather OPS manager: Thanks Matthew, much appreciated. I didn't even realize it was supposed to storm today

Actually quite impressive that the the storm was able to produce hail to ping pong ball size in Loudoun County with ML Lapse Rates so poor... wonder if it just took advantage of the instability and boundary?

FFW for Alexandria/Fairfax BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 355 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The West Central City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 355 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Alexandria... Annandale... Springfield... Groveton... Fort Belvoir... Burke... Lincolnia... Lorton... Franconia... Newington... I395 and I495 Interchange... West Springfield... Mount Vernon... Fairfax Station... North Springfield... Hayfield... Ravensworth...

And there it is

@Kmlwx BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 352 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Eastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 352 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Countryside, or near Poolesville, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters have reported quarter size and larger hail near Leesburg. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Rockville, Bethesda, Gaithersburg, Olney, Lowes Island, Aspen Hill, Potomac, North Bethesda, Montgomery Village, North Potomac, Redland, Great Falls, Colesville, Kemp Mill, Countryside, Chevy Chase, North Kensington, South Kensington and Forest Glen.

Trained spotters report quarter size hail near Leesburg Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 348 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 MDC031-VAC107-022015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-220602T2015Z/ Montgomery MD-Loudoun VA- 348 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND EAST CENTRAL LOUDOUN COUNTIES... At 348 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Lansdowne, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Quarter size hail has been reported near Leesburg. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Leesburg, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Poolesville, Ashburn, Countryside, Belmont, Barnesville, Beallsville and Dawsonville.

Landsdowne has to be getting smoked with those VILs

Montgomery/Loudoun cell now warned for winds to 70mph and hail to half dollars

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 334 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 VAC059-153-683-685-022000- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-220602T2000Z/ Fairfax VA-City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA- City of Manassas VA- 334 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN FAIRFAX...AND CENTRAL PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK AND THE NORTHEASTERN CITY OF MANASSAS... At 333 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Centreville, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotter reported quarter size hail in Manassas Park. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Centreville, Annandale, Springfield, Fort Belvoir, Lake Ridge, Burke, Lincolnia, Lorton, Franconia, Newington, I395 and I495 Interchange, Manassas, West Springfield, Sudley, Manassas Park, Fairfax Station, North Springfield, Ravensworth, Mason Neck and Occoquan.