yoda

Stafford and Rappahannock County schools are closed today

Loud lightning strikes

Morning AFD should be a fun read in the next hour or so

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 234 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The northwestern City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 315 AM EDT. * At 234 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Centreville, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Centreville, Reston, Herndon, Fairfax, Vienna, Oakton, Sterling, Chantilly, Wolf Trap and Dunn Loring. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia.

South of Warrenton could use a TW right now

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes and scattered damaging winds appear probable across parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the remnants of Ida move through the region later today. Isolated strong/severe storms may also occur across portions of the northern/central Plains. ...Middle Atlantic... Remnants of Ida are currently spreading northeast across the southern Appalachians early this morning. Surface low associated with this feature is forecast to track into southern WV by the start of the day1 period, then advance into northern VA by early afternoon. In response, warm front should advance north across NJ, ultimately orienting itself near Long Island during the evening. This boundary will serve as the northern demarcation of meaningful tornado potential. Have opted to extend 10% tornado probabilities a bit farther north across NJ due to the warm sector that should spread across much of the Garden State. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a more open short-wave trough in association with the remnants of Ida. This feature will eject into WV by 18z, then east during the overnight hours as stronger 500mb flow translates into southern New England. Latest model guidance continues to suggest LLJ will strengthen across the Delmarva into NJ ahead of the low and strong vertical shear will prove sufficient for sustaining supercells. Additionally, while very moist air mass (PW values 2"+) will overspread this corridor, some boundary-layer heating is expected, especially across the Delmarva into southern NJ where surface temperatures could approach 80F. This should aid buoyancy and increase the likelihood for robust updrafts. Given the strength of the wind field, tornadoes appear possible with supercells until the surface low advances off the NJ coast later in the evening.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 142 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... * Until 230 AM EDT. * At 142 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bealeton, or 10 miles south of Warrenton, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Warrenton, Bealeton, New Baltimore, Opal, Midland, Airlie, Broken Hill, Auburn and Casanova. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for northern Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for northern Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia. && LAT...LON 3875 7766 3870 7763 3855 7781 3857 7786 3858 7787 3859 7787 3860 7786 3861 7787 3862 7786 3863 7787 3881 7779 TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 214DEG 22KT 3857 7784 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

ENH risk for new Day 1 SPC OTLK... N VA into DC along with C MD into the Delmarva... 10% tor and 15% wind

Big hail core showing up on the newly warned supercell on the NWS radar

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 109 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Orange County in central Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... * Until 200 AM EDT. * At 109 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles southeast of Culpeper, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Rhoadesville, Lois, Everona, Verdiersville, Burr Hill, Locust Grove, Flat Run, Lignum, Lake Of The Woods, Richardsville, Morrisville, Goldvein, Sumerduck and Raccoon Ford. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for northern and central Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for northern and central Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia.

Looks like it cycled (I think?)... hook echo is now further SE with new hail marker of 1.5"

40/20 on the tor probs ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2021 TORNADO WATCH 481 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DCC001-011200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0481.210901T0455Z-210901T1200Z/ DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-510-011200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0481.210901T0455Z-210901T1200Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY VAC013-059-061-107-153-179-510-600-610-630-683-685-011200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0481.210901T0455Z-210901T1200Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON FAIRFAX FAUQUIER LOUDOUN PRINCE WILLIAM STAFFORD VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Central and northern Maryland Northeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning from 1255 AM until 800 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A potentially tornadic supercell on the fringes of Ida's remnants will exit tornado watch 480 in the next 1-2 hours and is moving generally toward the DC metro. Other convection also may develop and become supercellular overnight, along a frontal zone draped across the watch area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles either side of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Washington DC to 30 miles northeast of Baltimore MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1253 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... North central Orange County in central Virginia... South central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Central Culpeper County in northern Virginia... * Until 145 AM EDT. * At 1253 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of Orange, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Culpeper, Bealeton, Remington, Raccoon Ford, Elkwood, Catalpa, Stevensburg, Brandy Station, Rapidan, Lois, Everona, Winston, Lignum, Mitchells, Rixeyville and Alanthus. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for northern and central Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for northern and central Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM EDT for northern Virginia.

Tornado Watch issued till 8am for most of N VA/DC/MD

SW of there by Orange... Culpepper would be next if warning were issued. But looks to slide just east of there

Hail threat increasing on Radarscope with that cell

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1225 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia... Central Orange County in central Virginia... Southwestern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... * Until 100 AM EDT. * At 1224 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Boswells Tavern, or 7 miles southwest of Orange, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Orange around 1240 AM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Nasons, Gordonsville, Madison Mills, Montford, Rapidan, Montpelier Station, Madison Run, Unionville and Locust Dale.

Tornado Watch possible for N VA/DC/MD -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1666.html Mesoscale Discussion 1666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Areas affected...northern VA into MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 010419Z - 010545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong cells capable of producing brief tornadoes may spread northeast across parts of northern Virginia and western Maryland. DISCUSSION...A few persistent cells across central VA continue to show periods of low-level rotation as they track along the gradient of stronger 0-3 km MLCAPE. Forecast guidance shows this area of relatively greater instability persisting over parts of northern VA and MD. Low-level shear currently is weak downstream from WW 480 across the MCD area. However, some improvement is forecast as stronger ascent spreads over the region and the stalled surface boundary lifts northward. This could support a few stronger cells with a continued tornado threat into the overnight hours, and a downstream tornado watch is possible. ..Leitman/Edwards.. 09/01/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LWX AFD from this afternoon SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... All eyes will turn to the remnants of Ida tomorrow, as a potentially significant weather event unfolds across our area. While there still is a small amount of spread, 12z guidance has started to come into better agreement with respect to the track of Ida and the resultant rainfall distribution across the area. The character of the event can be split up into two separate regimes across our forecast area. The first regime will be to the west of the Blue Ridge, where steady precipitation will persist nearly continuously from tonight through tomorrow afternoon. Dynamically speaking, this is where the remnants of Ida will interact with the mid-latitude trough off to our north and west, undergoing extratropical transition as it tracks across our forecast area. As the remnant wind field and copious amounts of moisture associated with Ida encounter the baroclinic zone associated with the trough to our west, strong warm advection/frontogenesis will ensue aloft, leading to a long lived period of heavy rainfall within the right entrance region of the upper level jet situated to our north. This prolonged period of steady, heavy rain will primarily be located across the WV Panhandle and western MD, where widespread rainfall totals of 3-6" are expected, with localized totals exceeding 8" also possible. Some of these totals may also extend across far northern MD further to the east as the zone of interaction between Ida and the upper jet spreads eastward across PA. This will lead to a high end threat for flash flooding across these areas tomorrow, and then a threat for river flooding in the days following (see hydrology section for details). Locations to the east of the Blue Ridge will be further displaced from the upper trough and resultant jet dynamics. As a result, many locations there may start off the day dry. Not only will locations be dry, but a few breaks of filtered sunshine may develop by later in the morning into the early afternoon hours. This will lead destabilization, with MLCAPE values increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Also of note from a thermodynamic perspective is the steepening of low-level lapse rates near the surface in many of the CAMs, which when combined with 3CAPE values of 100-150 J/kg should promote low-level stretching of vertical vorticity in any stronger storms. Kinematically speaking, the wind field associated with the remnants of Ida is very impressive, with 40-50 knots of flow extending from 925 hPa all the way up through the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Hodographs have impressive clockwise curvature through up 6 km, making ample streamwise vorticity available to any right moving storms. CAMs show multiple arcs of storms developing to the east of the Blue Ridge tomorrow afternoon. Given the environment in place, any storm that forms tomorrow, whether discrete or embedded within a larger linear structure should be capable of exhibiting supercellular characteristics. Multiple tornadoes and instances of damaging straight line winds appear possible across the area in association with these storms. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a large portion of the area to the east of the Blue Ridge to an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms. While rainfall won`t be steady to the east of the Blue Ridge, individual thunderstorms will be capable of producing very high instantaneous rainfall rates, given the potential for very strong updrafts and the high precipitable water environment in place. As a result, flash flooding is also possible in these areas as well, but on a more localized basis compared to west of the Blue Ridge. Ida`s remnants will progress off to the east overnight Wednesday night, bringing precipitation to an end areawide by daybreak Thursday. High pressure will build in behind Ida during the day Thursday, bringing a return to quieter weather conditions.

DAY 1 SPC 1300Z OTLK ...Northern VA to the Delmarva this afternoon/evening... Surface heating will be strongest the first half of the day, prior to the arrival of the thicker high clouds from the remnants of Ida. At the surface, a weak front sagging southward from PA toward northern VA will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon into this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) is expected in the warm sector as surface temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints at or above 70 F. Though midlevel lapse rates will be poor in the moisture plume aloft emanating from Ida, low-level lapse rates will be relatively steep with daytime heating, and there will be an increase in the 700-500 mb flow into the 40-50 kt range this afternoon. These factors will support a threat for damaging winds with the stronger cells/clusters this afternoon into this evening.