yoda

That fumble right after the interception sealed it... and giving up the 1st down on 3rd and 16... i mean, they had their chances.

And Fitz is injured... yay

Your outlook should be interesting then

Ah yes, the usual start to the season

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight and very recently become better organized with a loose band of convection around the northeastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the system has found 44-kt flight-level winds and SFMR winds that support a 35-kt initial intensity. Based on the recent increase in organization and the 35-kt initial intensity, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Nicholas, the fourteenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm is located within an environment of moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, over warm waters, and in a moist and unstable atmosphere. These conditions should allow gradual strengthening over the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and calls for gradual strengthening until the system reaches the coast of Texas. The official wind speed forecast is near the higher end of the guidance in best agreement with the SHIPS statistical guidance, the HFIP corrected consensus, and the HWRF. In this case, the intensity forecast is highly dependent on eventual track of the system. A track to the east of the NHC forecast could result in a lower wind shear environment and slightly more time over water for the system to strengthen. Conversely a track to the west of the forecast track would result in the system interacting with land much sooner. Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 330/11 kt. A north-northwestward motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is sliding east near the coast of the Carolinas, should continue to steer Nicholas in that direction for the next 24 to 48 hours. After that time, steering currents weaken and the cyclone is expected to move slowly north-northeastward between a couple of mid-level ridges located to the east and west of Nicholas. The track guidance generally agrees with this overall scenario but there is some cross-track spread with the UKMET along the left side of the guidance envelope taking the storm into northeastern Mexico, while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON are along the right side. The NHC track is near the various consensus models and both the EC and GFS ensemble means. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning on Monday. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm on Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the middle and upper Texas coasts late Monday night and Tuesday. 2. There is the possibility of life-threatening storm surge along the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts today through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.5N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 21.9N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 24.1N 96.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 26.4N 96.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 28.2N 96.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 29.4N 95.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/1200Z 30.3N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/1200Z 31.0N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 94.8W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Barra el Mezquital northward to the U.S./Mexico border. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from north of Port Aransas to High Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.

TS Nicholas

Now let's see what type of WFT we have this year

00z Euro at the end of its run... hmmm... but looks like a recurve coming with that s/w in the Northern Plains? Yes 10 days away and all too... it does look like there is decent ridging above though

For our area... 00z GGEM looks mildly interesting late next week into the weekend... 00z GFS quite more so 00z Euro says meh

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over Newfoundland, Canada. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Upper-level winds over the western Gulf of Mexico are expected to become more conducive for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. A tropical wave is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 3. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa early next week. Some development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Berg

Interesting re the bolded in the 11pm disco Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 The infrared satellite presentation of Larry this evening is giving the false impression of a well-organized hurricane, with a ring of colder cloud tops (-65 to -70 C) and a warm spot within. However, we are fortunate to have in-situ data provided by an Air Force Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter mission investigating Larry this evening. Their observations show that Larry's center is actually southwest of the warm spot seen on satellite. In fact, the plane was unable to identify an eye with Larry, and the highest flight-level and SFMR winds were found nearly 80 nautical miles away from the center. Moreover, there remains a large discrepancy between the peak 700-mb flight level winds (108-kt) versus the much lower SFMR peak values (67-kt). This suggests that the 90 percent reduction factor that is typically applied to 700-mb flight level winds in the eyewall may not be appropriate for this hurricane given its very large radius of maximum winds more associated with weaker outer convection. Given these factors, the latest NHC initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. This intensity is also a good compromise between the SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak estimates. The hurricane's heading is still off to the northwest with the latest motion at 330/14 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed much for the last few days, with Larry moving around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic. The hurricane should make its closest approach to the east of Bermuda tomorrow as it gradually turns north-northwest and north. After that, the hurricane will begin to dramatically accelerate to the northeast as Larry is picked up by a deep-layer trough moving offshore of the eastern United States. The latest forecast track is quite similar to the previous one, and takes Larry across the southeast portion of Newfoundland in 48-60 hours. The official forecast remains close to the tightly clustered track guidance consensus. The current structure of Larry appears to be somewhat tilted with height, with the low-level center identified by recon located to the southwest of the apparent center on IR satellite. While the shear as diagnosed by SHIPS appears to be lower, it appears dry air has significantly disrupted Larry's inner core structure, to the point that it likely will be unable to take advantage of the more favorable conditions. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, owing to the lower initial intensity, but begins to show more pronounced weakening after 24 hours when the hurricane will accelerate poleward of the northern wall of the Gulf Stream. However, Larry is still forecast to be a hurricane as it passes near or over Newfoundland, though likely beginning to undergo extratropical transition. The models continue to maintain Larry as a large formidable cyclone after extratropical transition is complete while it moves into the far north Atlantic east of Greenland. This cyclone will eventually merge with another extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there on Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 29.7N 60.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 34.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 39.3N 60.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 45.2N 55.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 51.6N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z 57.4N 41.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z 63.8N 35.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...LARRY'S OUTER BANDS APPROACHING BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 60.8W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Watch for southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts northward to Pouch Cove. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts and from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista

So...

Good luck with that... I don't even see any 40s for lows east of the BR until probably October... so no real need for it for like another month lol

Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Through the day, the area of disturbed weather in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has gradually become better organized on geostationary satellite and Doppler radar imagery. Earlier, a 1515 UTC ASCAT-C pass found a number of southwesterly wind retrievals in the 30-kt range on the southeast side of the formative circulation. The ASCAT-C Ambiguities at that time also hinted that a very small closed circulation was trying to develop along the edge of these stronger winds. Since that time, a well-defined circulation become evident on KEVX Doppler-radar with inbound velocities occasionally nearing 40-45 kt to the southeast of the radar center. These Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably confident this circulation is now surface based. Just in the last hour or so, NOAA buoy 42039 reported a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 35 kt just southeast of the center, confirming the system now has tropical storm force winds. Thus, advisories are being initiated on tropical storm Mindy with maximum sustained wind of 35 kt. The most recent estimated motion following the center on radar is to the northeast at 050/18 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that this quick motion should continue with a gentle shift to the east-northeast in the next 24-36 hours as the system is under the influence of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the eastern United States. On the current heading, the center of Mindy should move inland over the Florida Panhandle in the next 6-12 hours and then already be offshore of the southeastern United States by 24 hours. A gradual slowdown is expected thereafter as the cyclone is left behind by this mid-latitude trough and also becomes vertically shallow. Little intensification is expected prior to landfall, with land interaction resulting in Mindy weakening back to a depression by 24 hours. Conditions do not appear favorable for restrengthening off the southeastern United States as shear is forecast to increase above 30 knots in 24 hours. This shear will likely strip away from remaining convection, and both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR brightness temperatures suggest Mindy should become a remnant low in the day 2-3 period. This remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough shortly thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 29.0N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 30.3N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 31.3N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0600Z 32.3N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 32.9N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 33.4N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 33.3N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

So... a TC for like.... 6 hours?

Sounds like evening fun... afternoon LWX AFD .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Stacked low is located well to the north in Canada while a cold front trails through upstate NY and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An MCV is moving through southeast VA this afternoon, and will likely represent the first "round" of thunderstorms which will brush by the Northern Neck and Southern Maryland. Guidance has been quite variable with where and when the next storms will develop, although so far it appears the stable layers in the 12Z IAD sounding are holding strong. The terrain and/or a weak pressure trough could serve as an initiation point later this afternoon. Additional convection could form or strengthen as the actual cold front presses eastward this evening. For this afternoon, moderate instability and DCAPE are in place near and east of the Blue Ridge, though shear is still lacking. Thus expect activity to be somewhat pulsey and disorganized. Increasing shear will overspread the region this evening, so storms may be able to organize into a line or clusters. Damaging winds will be the main threat, although some hail is possible. There may be a brief window for a tornado or two this evening as a low level jet spreads into the region. This jet and slow frontal motion may also result in some training of storms which could lead to some localized flooding. While the biggest severe weather threat will likely be this evening, showers and some thunderstorms will likely continue along the frontal zone through the night as it progresses eastward, some anafrontal in nature. Some locally heavy rain could continue during this time

Would think there will be a MCD coming soon for the area

1300z OTLK from SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm winds are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS this period, featuring: 1. A strong anticyclone moving slowly east-southeastward over the Great Basin and Four Corners region, anchored by a 598-600-dm 500-mb high, and 2. A well defined trough extending south-southwestward from a cyclone now over northeastern ON. As the cyclone moves northeastward to the QC Hudson Bay coastline, a series of shortwaves and vorticity maxima will traverse the amplifying trough over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from southwestern ON across southwestern IN, southeastern MO, southern OK, northwest TX, and southeastern NM. A dissipating, quasistationary to warm frontal zone was drawn from the northern Chesapeake Bay region southwestward across middle/eastern TN to south-central TX. By 00Z, the cold front should extend from VT/eastern NY southwestward across south-central PA, middle/eastern TN, northern MS, and central/west- central TX. By the end of the period, the front should reach central/southern New England, southeastern VA, western SC, south-central AL, and portions of south-central/southwest TX. ...Northeastern CONUS to Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the midday through afternoon near the cold front, from northern NY across western PA, WV and eastern KY. Additional activity should form in the warm sector over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. The most intense, well-organized convection in both regimes (which may merge over the Susquehanna/Delaware Valley region by late afternoon) should be in a corridor of greatest shear and return-flow buoyancy from eastern NY and VT southwestward toward the DC vicinity, with damaging to severe gusts being common. A few tornadoes will be possible as well, along with isolated large hail. At least isolated severe-wind potential may persist eastward over central/southern New England and the southeast NY/Long Island region this evening. Farther south into the Carolinas, activity will be less-organized, but still capable of isolated severe hail/wind. Isolated damaging gusts also may occur with the frontal convection in higher terrain of the central/southern Appalachians, amidst weaker but still marginally supportive instability. Strong southwesterly flow and broad height falls will spread over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today along/ahead of the front and east of the slowly progressive upper trough, with largely front- parallel winds contributing to a dominant quasi-linear convective structure. However, sufficient deep shear (35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes as far south as MD/northern VA) and low-level SRH (150- 250 J/kg effective values) will support early-stage discrete supercells, as well as line-embedded supercells, bows and mesovortices. Pronounced weaknesses in the 2-4-km hodographs remain evident, which further indicate potential for messy storm structures. A returning plume of mid/upper 60s F surface dew points is expected east of the Blue Ridge, and into southeastern NY/southern New England. This will act in tandem with diurnal heating to offset modest lapse rates aloft and yield MLCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range, generally increasing southward. MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are possible over southeastern VA and the Carolinas, but amidst weaker midlevel winds and deep shear supporting multicells and marginal/transient supercells.

*sees only a few clouds and blue sky* Well, guess that cancels the severe threat

LWX AFD from this morning... sounds like a fun afternoon and evening NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest surface analysis depicts a strong area of low pressure over central Ontario with its attendant cold front draped across the Great Lakes region down into Indiana/Ohio. The stationary front that had been sitting along the MD/PA border has lifted northward as a warm front this morning as high pressure moved offshore. Water vapor satellite imagery depicts the large- scale upper trough, whose axis runs from Ontario into Wisconsin. Radar/IR satellite depict some ongoing convective activity out ahead of the aforementioned cold front across the Ohio Valley, which is starting to taper off. With high pressure having shifted offshore and a warm front well to our north, strong warm air advection is beginning to take shape across the region. The first half of the day will be rather uneventful, with only a little early morning fog in the valleys in our far western zones perhaps. Cloud cover will gradually increase throughout the morning as warm advection increases. This afternoon is where things start to get a little more interesting. High temperatures are expected to rise into the mid-upper 80s this afternoon, with dewpoints rising into the mid-upper 60s and perhaps even some near 70. This will result in a fairly wide swath of moderate CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the approaching cold front (primarily east of the Blue Ridge). Additionally, hi-res guidance hints at a corridor of even higher CAPE amounts (closer to 2500 J/kg). A subtle shortwave ahead of the main trough will move overhead this afternoon. This combined with 10-15 kts of surface SSW flow colliding with the bay breeze, should result in thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of the main line of storms, which will come through during the evening. This afternoon round could pose a threat for an isolated tornado or two as deep layer shear begins to increase. The primary convective mode with storms this afternoon will be supercellular. Tornado threat with this round would stem from backed low level flow near the bay breeze. Steep low- level lapse rates will yield the threat for damaging winds as well. Additionally, while not the largest threat, hail is still a threat with the fist round of storms. Think it will be mostly on the smaller side given weak mid-level lapse rates, but can`t rule out some larger hail should we get a stronger supercell to form. The second round of convection will come through during the evening hours. This will be more of a linear structure associated with the cold front. Primary threat with this round will be damaging straight-line winds. An isolated tornado also isn`t out of the question with round 2 either in any properly oriented evening linear activity as a low level jet increases ahead of the front. However, low-level winds may be more southwesterly by that point (limiting SRH). Time of day and less than ideal low level thermodynamics could be limiting factors. In addition to the severe threat, as the front becomes more parallel to the upper flow, forward propagation of linear features will tend to slow down as well. This could limit robust, forward- moving downdrafts. This fact may also lead to some locally heavy rain totals, especially in eastern part of the CWA, as clusters could train over areas for a time. Hydrologically sensitive areas due to recent rainfall will be most susceptible to any flooding, as precipitable water values will not be excessively high.

5/5/15 today from N VA into DC and much of MD