Blah... LWX AFD from this afternoon seems to suggest weekend could be terrible
The pattern for Saturday remains uncertain at this time as it will
be heavily dependent on a coastal low off the Carolina coast. Models
have differing solution with the GFS keeping a strong high pressure
/ upper ridge over the NE US which prevents the coastal low from
moving northward toward our region. On the other hand, the Euro is
weaker with the high and allows the low to bring areas of 1 to 2
inches of precipitation to parts of our region. General trends have
pushed precipitation to the late Saturday and into Sunday period
with areas around and below DC experiencing the heaviest
precipitation. The threat for flooding has increased especially if
the coastal low shifts closer to the coast with flooding most likely
to occur if the heaviest rain occurs over our metro areas. There is
the possibility that our region remains mostly dry this weekend
especially if the GFS solution comes true. Temperatures on Saturday
will be slightly cooler in the 70s with overnight lows in upper 50s
to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Come Sunday, guidance continues to diverge on how it handles an
upper level trough across the Eastern Seaboard. Guidance varies in
developing an upper level low and a coastal low along a surface
trough. The potential surface low is being monitored by the NHC for
potential tropical development off the SE US coast (see nhc.noaa.gov
for the latest). Regardless if this system officially becomes named
a tropical system, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Sunday
mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Impacts are highly dependent on the
track of the surface low, and considerable uncertainty remains.
Regardless, if the low moves nearby, it should be out of the area by
Sunday night with dry weather returning early next week as upper
level ridging builds across the region.