yoda

Large Day 5 area outlooked from S NE into C TX

An ENH risk appears with 30% sig severe hatching for C MO into N AR for Sunday per SPC... SW IL in 30%

Tuesday surprise? Day 4-8 SPC OTLK mentions potential

The MassMutual commercial with Ovie and his wife and Backstrom is silly

That HP needs to be stronger

Ofc 18z GFS shows fantasy hurricane way out

Looks like it's lifted reading the newest warning... but that was a nasty surprise in the middle of the night. Plus the warning stated that there was a TDS with debris in the air shown on radar

MRGL risk for Day 3 (Saturday)

But world class goal there to tie the game at 1

Lol US men's soccer team

Violently agree... but we both know they will never see the light of day

Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Areas affected...Portions of eastern WY...the extreme western NE Panhandle...the far western Dakotas...and southeastern into east-central MT Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 130958Z - 131600Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall, with rates around 1-1.5 inches per hour, should occur this morning. Near-blizzard conditions are also possible with strong/gusty winds. DISCUSSION...A mature mid/upper-level cyclone evident on water vapor satellite imagery will continue to eject northeastward across the central/northern High Plains this morning. A deformation band on the back side of the cyclone is beginning to fill in as low/mid-level frontogenetic forcing increases. Current expectations are that a mostly north-south oriented band of moderate to heavy snow will develop over parts of eastern WY/MT into the western Dakotas over the next few hours this morning, and gradually shift northward with time. Even though low-level temperatures are marginal (generally 28-33 degrees F), strong cooling aloft associated with the upper low should support snow as the main precipitation type. Lift through the saturated dendritic-growth layer and consensus of latest high-resolution guidance both suggest snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hours will likely be common, with locally greater rates possible. Finally, near-blizzard conditions with reduced visibilities should also occur across this region, as a strong pressure gradient and gusty winds will exist on the back side of a surface low that will develop northward from NE into central SD this morning. Indeed, blizzard conditions have recently been reported at KDGW in eastern WY. ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

Good morning OKC indeed

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 523 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 530 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...At least isolated intense supercells are expected to develop this evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle/western North Texas near a northward-shifting warm front and a dryline. The environment will be very supportive of intense supercells capable of large hail and a tornado risk, potentially including a couple of strong tornadoes given seasonally rare low-level moisture and strengthening low-level shear/helicity. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Guymon OK to 50 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

80/50 tor probs 60/60 hail probs 60/40 wind probs

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 522 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Colorado Western Kansas Far Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Several supercells are expected to develop near the Colorado/Kansas border, before then moving east-northeast this evening. All severe hazards are likely, some of which may be significant. Greatest tornado potential appears to be across southwest Kansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west of Liberal KS to 40 miles north of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Mesoscale Discussion 1839 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Areas affected...portions of the central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 122008Z - 122145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Strong ascent ahead of an advancing upper low will support rapid destabilization and storm development late this afternoon and into this evening. Supercells with all hazards including tornadoes are possible. A tornado watch is likely late this afternoon. DISCUSSION...As of 1955 UTC, a well-defined upper low was located on WV imagery near the Four Corners region moving east. To the south of the low, an 80-100 kt mid-level speed max was observed rounding the base and ejecting into southern CO. To the north and east of the low, strong ascent (90-120 DM 12 hr H5 height falls) is supporting widespread precipitation across the central and northern Rockies. In response to the powerful dynamics aloft, already strong low-level pressure gradients are forecast to strengthen rapidly allowing a relatively warm/moist surface airmass to advect ahead of the dryline/surface trough supporting destabilization late this afternoon. Mid and lower 50s F surface dewpoints at the nose of deeper surface moisture, have already been observed across southwestern KS as far north as TQK. Continued warm/moist advection beneath the cold-core of the upper low will support rapid destabilization (MLCAPE values of 500-1250 J/kg) by 23-01z given steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Late afternoon/early evening model soundings also show very strong and veering wind profiles developing beneath the mid-level jet, with largely boundary-normal effective shear values of 60-70 kt supportive of discrete supercells. Low-level shear is also likely to be strong beneath a 50-60 kt low-level jet. Model soundings show large looping hodographs (ESRH 300-400 M2/s2) favorable for strong low-level mesocyclone development. Given the overall parameter space and potential for strong supercells, a risk for tornadoes (some significant), large hail, and damaging winds appears likely to develop by 22-00z. Latest observational trends suggest hi-res guidance remains too cool and dry across much of the High Plains where rapid warming/moistening is occurring. This lends high confidence in eventual destabilization of the airmass as the upper low approaches late this afternoon. Deep convection should gradually evolve out of the initial updrafts ongoing in the elevated cumulus field across eastern CO. Weaker buoyancy and storm motions more parallel to the northern sections of the dryline suggest initial storm mode may remain linear, though a gradual transition to more isolated convection is expected with southern extent. Fast-moving long-track supercells capable of all hazards should evolve rapidly and intensify as they move through the narrow, but unstable and strongly sheared warm sector after dark. Given the potential for significant severe weather, a tornado watch will likely be needed late this afternoon. ..Lyons/Grams.. 10/12/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

Mesoscale Discussion 1840 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 122014Z - 122245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A few supercells may develop through evening, from the eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Tornadoes, perhaps strong, and very large hail will be possible. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a front extending from northern TX into southwest OK which is becoming more diffuse with heating. This boundary separates a cooler/capped air mass over much of OK from a destabilizing air mass over northwest TX and into the TX Panhandle. Meanwhile, a dryline stretches from north to south across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. Visible satellite shows stable billow clouds north of the boundary, but these are gradually eroding from south to north as temperatures warm into the lower 80s F. A growing CU field is also evident over northwest TX, where MLCAPE is in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Backed surface winds on the cool side of the boundary are contributing to 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per FDR VWP. Although convergence is currently weak, it is expected to increase around 00Z and into the evening as the dryline eventually pushes east with the upper trough. A few more hours of air mass modification will occur, including moistening. In addition, the low-level jet will continue to increase to over 50 kt, further enhancing shear. Assuming a cell or two can form, they should quickly acquire rotation, with tornadoes and hail likely. Any lone cells that can maintain access to the warm side of the boundary will have the potential for a strong tornado. ..Jewell/Grams.. 10/12/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

Saturday maybe? High shear low instability event possible

ay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to begin late this afternoon, peak this evening, and continue into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Several tornadoes, some of which may be strong, along with destructive hail and wind are possible. ...Discussion... Forecast thinking from the previous outlook is on track regarding the overall scenario, and confidence has increased for several long-track supercells capable of a couple strong and perhaps an intense tornado this evening/tonight. As a result, this outlook update is introducing a 15-percent tornado probability and an associated Moderate Risk for portions of the northeast TX Panhandle and far northwest OK, and areas to the north-northwest into southwest KS. Storm-simulated model guidance continues to show quasi-discrete convective mode with storms that develop initially near the dryline and move east into richer low-level moisture and high SRH this evening. Forecast soundings strongly favor discrete supercells and long-track, fast-moving supercells appear likely to traverse across the Moderate Risk. Linear forcing and slightly drier/less unstable air will probably favor upscale growth into a band of storms in northwest KS and northeast CO, limiting the tornado risk. Have adjusted the southeastern bound of the 10-percent tornado area to be farther northwest and mainly be confined to western and northwestern OK. ..Smith.. 10/12/2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and far northeast Texas Panhandle Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 121929Z - 122000Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to Category 4/Moderate risk will be introduced in the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect a greater risk for strong tornadoes. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution/convection allowing model guidance consensus has been generally trending upward in the intensity and longevity of deep, moist convection over portions of the southern High Plains. Potential exists for multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells to develop ahead of a Pacific front late this afternoon/evening. These storms are expected to progress eastward into an ambient environment characterized by very strong low-level shear, resulting in large, curved hodographs and effective SRH values exceeding 400 m2/s2, especially across portions of southwest KS/northwest OK/far northeast TX Panhandle. Here, potential exists for at least a few intense, cyclical tornadic supercells to develop, and a long-tracked tornado or two cannot be ruled out. As such, portions of the central Plains will be upgraded to Category 4/Moderate risk in the upcoming 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/12/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

MD out stating MOD risk coming for tornadoes on 20z OTLK https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1838.html

Backstrom to start the season on LTIR... so out for all of October

Large ENH for Day 3 as well from S NE into NW Oklahoma

About time lol