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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Then the middle of next week has my interest too... also from LWX afternoon AFD but in the extended section @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe By Tuesday into Wednesday, ridging aloft will start to build in from the west. We`ll remain on the frontside of the ridge both days, placing us in northwesterly flow aloft. Heat and humidity will start to build in from the west, with highs approaching 90 by Tuesday, and then well into the 90s on Wednesday. The return of the heat and humidity will bring along with it chances for showers and thunderstorms as disturbances descend down the frontside of the ridge in northwesterly flow.
  2. yoda
    Re today for severe threat from LWX afternoon AFD update... i'm intrigued by the 2nd period of interest Regarding the severe weather potential today, there are two periods of interest. The first is from late this afternoon into this evening along a lee pressure trough. Hi-res guidance has trended toward a more robust environment this afternoon from I-81 east with sfc CAPE of 2000 J/kg+ and deep layer shear of 35-45 kts. This area is colocated with the pressure trough and terrain circulations. Should any storm form in this area/environment, it could quickly become severe posing a damaging wind and large hail threat. These storms would also likely be efficient rain producers due to the anomalously moist airmass, though storms should remain progressive to some extent. The second period of interest is late this evening into the early parts of tonight. A cold front will be positioned across the southern Great Lakes. Storms will develop along the Lake Erie lake breeze and progress southeast. Uncertainty arises with the areal extent of the storms in part due to the warm air aloft since these storms will not be on the actual cold front. Several scenarios exist, with bowing segments possibly extending into the local region. Areas near the bay may have more of a stable airmass by the time the storms arrive, but will continue to monitor.
  3. yoda
    Tornado Watch for all of PA/NY just issued right down to the M/D line... in effect until 11pm
  4. yoda
    Waiting for our MCD soon
  5. yoda
    Mid 80s at DCA/IAD at 2pm with DPs near 70... with southerly winds bringing in a decent breeze
  6. yoda
    The storm in CTP's CWA (S PA) that is severe warned does have the TORNADO POSSIBLE tag on it FWIW
  7. yoda
    Should move eastward a bit as we continue to have heating IMO
  8. yoda

    Winter 2022-23

    yoda replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    I know this is more SNE-centric... but they really do have great disco in here about upcoming winter... really good discussion about everything and a really good read
  9. yoda
    1630z disco ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... An active severe-weather day is expected across the region, with essentially all convective modes/hazards possible. Steady large-scale height falls, along with a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies, will occur via the approach of the upstream trough over Ontario. Upstream regional 12z soundings/upper-air data sampled 50+ kt mid-level winds early this morning over Lower Michigan into Illinois (and likely Indiana). A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is in place across the Northeast, where daytime highs well into the 80s F and dewpoints near 70F will yield MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg with little capping inversion. General thinking remains that thunderstorms will form this afternoon along an approaching cold front, initially from western/northern New York into northwest Pennsylvania into eastern/central Ohio, with additional development possible within the warm sector in vicinity of the mountains and/or lee trough. Low-level winds are not forecast to be particularly strong, but favorable deep-layer shear and degree of instability suggest that discrete supercells will be possible, capable of very large hail and possibly a few tornadoes. This activity will spread east/southeastward during the afternoon/evening especially across the Enhanced Risk area that includes much of New York and Pennsylvania. Upscale growth into short bowing segments can be expected as storms spread toward additional parts of the Mid-Atlantic this evening, although a more stable air mass will likely persist for coastal areas.
  10. yoda
    Yup re SLGT risk... moved south a tad along i95 coprridor and now includes all of W VA
  11. yoda
    I could see the SLGT risk being moved south another 50-100 miles or so on the 1630z OTLK... down the i81 corridor towards CHO... ENH risk maybe just a tad nudge south too
  12. yoda
    For all you youngins
  13. yoda
    12z NAM NEST goes nuts from DC metro to BWI metro from 00z to 06z
  14. yoda
    Saw this on twitter... so thought I'd share
  15. yoda
    Updated morning AFD from LWX .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cluster of storms continues to move across far northeast MD. Given recent radar imagery and trends upstream, main threat is for a brief period of soaking rain. The 12Z RAOB from IAD had a PW of just under 2.0" indicating an anomalously moist airmass. Issued a heat advisory for portions of the eastern panhandle of WV, western MD, and northern Shenandoah Valley. A similar setup as yesterday should result in criteria being met for several hours this afternoon (heat indices of 100-104 degrees). The anomalously high dew points as of mid-morning in the mid 70s have already resulted in heat index values in the mid 90s in this area. If outdoors today, stay hydrated and practice heat safety. See weather.gov/heat for more info. Regarding the severe weather potential today, there are two periods of interest. The first is from late this afternoon into this evening along a lee pressure trough. High res guidance has trended in a more robust environment this afternoon from US-15 east with sfc CAPE of 2000 J/kg+ and deep layer shear of 35-45 kts. Should any storm form in this area/environment, it could quickly become severe posing a damaging wind and large hail threat. These storms would also likely be efficient rain producers due to the anomalously moist airmass, though storms should remain progressive to some extent. The second period of interest is late this evening into the early parts of tonight. A cold front will be positioned across the southern Great Lakes. Storms will develop along the Lake Erie lake breeze and progress southeast. Uncertainty arises with the areal extent of the storms in part due to the warm air aloft since these storms will not be on the actual cold front. Will continue to monitor this potential as storms approach the region from Pennsylvania. Additionally, the timing of this approaching convective activity may be after peak heating.
  16. yoda
    Well that's not a super helpful 12z IAD sounding per SPC site... anybody have a better one? Says everything is M except for a few things
  17. yoda
    Clearing here with nice sun
  18. yoda
    13z SPC OTLK now includes all of N VA north of around EZF and includes BWI/DC metro in SLGT risk... 2/15/15 5% TOR now includes C and W MD and E WV into extreme NW VA
  19. yoda
    Those are some ridiculous soundings once again on the 18z NAM for 21z THUR to 03z FRI (but particularly 00z FRI aka Thursday night at 8pm)
  20. yoda
    Seems like our next chance for severe storms is tomorrow night per the afternoon LWX AFD
  21. yoda
    Ji hasn't canceled winter yet?
  22. yoda
    So... Wednesday maybe? Lol Or maybe Thursday?
  23. yoda
    Very disappointing after watching earlier this evening into the night
  24. yoda
    Day 2 10 percent hatched tor in most of C WI into UP of MI
  25. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The western Maryland Panhandle Extreme southeast Ohio Southwestern Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Tuesday morning from 1245 AM until 600 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-developed squall line with bowing characteristics will likely persist for a few more hours in a zone north of prior convection across West Virginia. Damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the main threat, though isolated large hail may also occur for the strongest embedded updrafts.
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