yoda

Hmmm... from this mornings AFD LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Longwave troughing will remain in place across eastern North America through the long term period. Through the course of the week, the core of this trough is expected to slowly drift southward as individual shortwave disturbances rotate through the larger scale trough. This will lead to a gradual cooling trend through the week, with below normal temperatures expected for the middle to latter portions of the week. An initial shortwave will pass to our north on Tuesday into Tuesday night, potentially sparking the development of some showers across the area. Another more prominent shortwave may pass through on either Thursday or Friday. This may lead to slightly greater chances for precipitation. However, spread within both deterministic and ensemble guidance is considerable, with solutions ranging from dry conditions to a major storm with heavy precipitation. With the cooler air moving in, the potential is there for some of the precipitation (if it were to occur) to fall in the form of wintry precipitation across the higher elevations along and west of the Blue Ridge. We`ll continue to monitor trends with the late week system as we move closer to the event.

Finally

Snow is snow lol

Thanks Ji

Pretty sure there was something for I think the Jan 2016 storm that had 70" at KIAD... a model run or something... I have to go find it. Might have been off of the hilarous DGEX when it was run

Who's ready for some wind today? URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 DCZ001-MDZ001-003>006-011-013-014-016>018-501>506-VAZ025>031- 052>054-501-503>508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-261500- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0010.211026T1600Z-211027T0400Z/ District of Columbia-Garrett-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Extreme Western Allegany- Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Washington, Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Grantsville, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Frostburg, Cumberland, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Moorefield, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of The District of Columbia, central, north central, northern, southern and western Maryland, central, northern, northwest and western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From noon today to midnight EDT tonight. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and possibly a tornado risk are expected from the southern and central Appalachians into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas... The remnants of last evening's severe storms across the Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley grew upscale and persist early this morning in a diminished intensity from Ohio south-southwestward into eastern portions of Kentucky and middle/eastern Tennessee, parallel to but ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. The parent shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Midwest/Ohio Valley toward the central/northern Appalachians through tonight, with height falls and the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet overspreading the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia. The aforementioned bands of convection and related cloud cover will tend to hinder pre-frontal destabilization across the Upper Ohio Valley and windward side of the Appalachians, but a few strong/severe low-topped storms could occur pending weak but sufficient destabilization this afternoon in those areas. A more certain/probable severe-weather risk is expected this afternoon east of the Appalachians spine, perhaps initially near/just east of the Blue Ridge across Virginia and nearby Maryland/North Carolina. This is where cloud breaks ahead of the upstream cold front and lingering overnight convection should allow for modest destabilization, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible from the North Carolina/Virginia Blue Ridge and Piedmont vicinities toward the Delmarva by late afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will support some well-organized storms including linear bands aside from the possibility of some initial/embedded supercells, particularly across the Piedmont of Virginia and northern North Carolina. Although low-level shear will not be overly strong and details of convective mode are a bit uncertain, the potential for a tornado or two could somewhat increase late this afternoon/early evening. This would particularly be across southern Virginia/northern North Carolina pending weak lee-side low/trough development and a related increase in low-level shear/SRH. Damaging winds will otherwise be the most probable hazard across the region this afternoon and evening, with a few instances of marginally severe hail also a possibility.

5% hail added on 1300z OTLK... 2%tor from DC to the south and west

And this too URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Reno NV 325 AM PDT Mon Oct 25 2021 CAZ073-260600- /O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-211026T0600Z/ Mono County- 325 AM PDT Mon Oct 25 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ABOVE 8500 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 8500 feet. Snow accumulations of 3-5 inches in Mammoth Lakes, 3-5 inches along Highway 395 at Devils Gate, Conway, and Deadman Summits. Multiple feet of heavy wet snow for high elevations including around Tioga and Sonora passes and for Mammoth Mountain. * WHERE...Mono County. * WHEN...From 5 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday. Snowfall rates could approach 4 inches per hour in the higher elevation mountains. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree damage. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will gust 50 to 60 mph across the Eastern Sierra with ridges gusting well over 100 mph. This will result in hazardous travel coupled with the snowfall and heavy rains.

I know it's the mountains above 8K, but damn URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Hanford CA 215 AM PDT Mon Oct 25 2021 CAZ323-326>331-251800- /O.CON.KHNX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-211026T0600Z/ Yosemite NP outside of the valley-Upper San Joaquin River- Kaiser to Rodgers Ridge-Kings Canyon NP-Grant Grove Area- Sequoia NP-South End of the Upper Sierra- 215 AM PDT Mon Oct 25 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ABOVE 8000 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow above 8000 feet. Additional snow accumulation up to 48 inches. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph. * WHERE...Portions of the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite National Park to Sequoia National Forest. * WHEN...Until 11 PM PDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree damage. Campers and hikers should be especially prepared for winter like conditions. Weight of snow can cause tree limbs to break and fall, so use caution when picking a campsite.

Let's move that SLP about 50 more miles east please

LWX with a great writeup this morning about today's threat NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The key players on the synoptic map early this morning are a warm front arcing west-to-east across southern Pennsylvania. Off to the west, GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows a potent cyclone spinning over central Illinois. The attendant cold front moving through central Indiana and western Kentucky features relatively cold cloud tops and plenty of lightning activity. This system is set to embark on the Mid-Atlantic region later this evening and into the night. Expect locally heavy downpours, gusty to possibly damaging caliber winds, an isolated tornado, and a marked cool down into the following day. Relatively benign weather is being observed at 07Z with a few high clouds streaming overhead. Otherwise, quiet conditions are anticipated through the early afternoon. Mild southerly flow is supporting above average temperatures with mid 50s to low 60s being rather widespread. Throughout the day, continued warm advection and rising heights will allow highs to soar into the mid/upper 70s. With 850-mb temperatures progged to reach 15C, a couple of low 80s readings are not out of the question. However, all of this warmth will disappear as a strong cold front looms upstream across the Ohio Valley. The scenario which unfolds is somewhat complicated which lends itself to some uncertainty. First, in addition to the system ejecting out of the Midwest, a second system lifting out of the southeastern U.S. will also play a role in the pattern. Energetics from the southern stream impulse are forecast to move toward southern Maryland during the late afternoon while cyclogenesis unfolds off the Carolina coast. The shortwave may spawn some showers east of I-95 in advance of the main cold front. Forecast soundings ahead of the expected frontal convection are somewhat erratic, possibly owing to the pre- frontal activity. Vertical profiles show more of a veer-to- back-to-veering wind field which is not terribly conducive to supercellular structures. However, deep-layer shear of 40 to 50 knots is substantial enough to keep a severe thunderstorm risk in place. This is despite the limited instability of 250 to 500 J/kg, locally higher in spots. Based on the recent high-resolution model suite, a north/south oriented line of showers and thunderstorms should form along the cold front. These will race eastward from the Shenandoah Valley toward the I-95 corridor in the 22Z-02Z window before reaching the Eastern Shore by after midnight. The main threat will be damaging winds as higher momentum air gets mixed down to the surface. Cannot rule out an isolated tornado, but such an occurrence would be brief. Heading into the night, some residual showers should linger as the shortwave passes overhead. Aside from the Alleghenies which will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, mild conditions continue as the colder air will yet to arrive.

Mentioned again... but no outlook yet due to uncertainty

Hmmm... 00z Euro suggests to me a severe threat on Friday.. Maybe even late Thursday and Saturday?

Didn't check it until just now... but SPC also mentioned us again in the Day 4-8 outlook for Thursday into Friday

Monday severe threat... SLGT risk up on Day 3

30% hatched wind... 30% hail... and 10% hatched tornado on new Day 2 from SPC

Wizards are 2-0... could be a good season

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Next week looks like it will feature an active stretch of weather, with two systems impacting the area over the course of the week. Guidance is coming into relatively good agreement that a shortwave will be situated just off to our west at the start of the period on Monday morning. This trough and its associated surface low will track toward the east through the day, ultimately impacting our forecast area Monday afternoon into Monday night. A period of rain appears likely across the area, and a few thunderstorms can`t be completely ruled out as well, but low-level moisture and related instability appear to be lacking somewhat with this system. If instability were to be greater than currently modeled, there could be a conditional threat for some stronger storms given the impressive wind field, but that currently looks like an unlikely outcome. That system will progress off to our north and east on Tuesday, and brisk northwesterly winds will filter into the area in its wake. Upslope showers may accompany the northwesterly winds along the Allegheny Front, but elsewhere there should be a drying trend over the course of the day. Winds may gust to upwards of 30 mph. Wednesday looks like a quiet day as a narrow upper level ridge builds overhead between the two systems of interest. The second system of interest will move into the area on Thursday. While there`s still a decent amount of spread with respect to the finer scale details, the general evolution on the synoptic scale is for a potent mid-upper level trough to approach from the west as it simultaneously takes on a negative tilt. Low pressure at the surface is expected to track into the Great Lakes, with potentially a second area of low pressure developing along the coast. While it is too early to get into the finer details, this appears to be a very dynamic system that could potentially lead to some high impact weather. We`ll continue to monitor trends with this system over the coming days.

LWX in their AFD already saying 2nd system could be a high impact event

@Eskimo Joe would approve of the 2nd system the 12z Euro shows for late Thursday into Saturday

12z Euro looks ugly for next week... severe threat next Friday lol

No one liked the 00z GFS in fantasy land?