yoda

Apologies if posted earlier

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Mesoscale Discussion 2008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...Portions of northern Kentucky. Concerning...Tornado Watch 554... Valid 110553Z - 110700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 554 continues. SUMMARY...A strong tornado threat continues across portions of northern Kentucky. DISCUSSION...Storm interference from new cells merging has finally disrupted the persistent very strong low-level mesocyclone with the long-lived supercell now entering Breckenridge County, Kentucky. However, while this has weakened the intensity of the updraft and low-level rotation, a strong tornado with around 50 to 55 knot Vrot and a TDS is still present. Mid 60s dewpoints have advected ahead of this storm and therefore, adequate instability remains for strong tornado development given the 350 to 400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per the KLVX VWP. Therefore, while circulations may be weaker and more transient, a strong tornado threat persists.

Tornado Warning National Weather Service Paducah KY Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 1140 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Calloway County in western Kentucky... * Until 1215 AM CST. * At 1140 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 8 miles west of Paris Landing State Park, moving east at 55 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * Locations impacted include... New Concord.

Is Beau still down there? Or did he move?

Mesoscale Discussion 2006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...northern Tennessee and southern Kentucky. Concerning...Tornado Watch 554... Valid 110536Z - 110630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 554 continues. SUMMARY...A significant tornado threat is materializing across northern Tennessee and southern Kentucky. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has produced occasional tornadoes as it moved across eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee, but storm interference and a messy storm mode so far has precluded a more long-lived, strong tornado threat. However, a cell, now in Henry County, Tennessee, has emerged ahead of this line and has a favorable airmass ahead of it. MLCAPE around 1000 to 1200 J/kg and 0-1 km SRH around 300 m2/s2 per OHX VWP suggest strong tornadoes will be possible. As long as this storm inflow remains unimpeded, it will likely pose a threat for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 12/11/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

After seeing the forecast for tomorrow and seeing what happened at STL8... I'm already alerting management of potential severe weather and strong winds. Amazon this is, since I'm working at DDC3

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Louisville KY 1121 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 KYC183-110545- /O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-211211T0545Z/ Ohio KY- 1121 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CST FOR CENTRAL OHIO COUNTY... At 1121 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Hartford, moving east at 60 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Hartford, Beaver Dam, Fordsville, Mchenry, Dukehurst, Taffy, Olaton, Ralph, Shreve and Horton.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Louisville KY 1120 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 KYC027-085-091-110600- /O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-211211T0600Z/ Hancock KY-Grayson KY-Breckinridge KY- 1120 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK...NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON AND BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES... At 1119 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Hartford, moving east at 60 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Hardinsburg, Irvington, Mcquady, Dyer, Constantine, Garfield, Se Ree, Westview, Buras and Big Spring.

Still have "this is an emergency situation" on the TN tornado that's PDS warned The Weakley and Henry County one

Already rumors flying of many dead at the warehouse... and a "mass casualty event" has been declared.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Memphis TN 1059 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Weakley County in western Tennessee... Northern Henry County in western Tennessee... * Until 1145 PM CST. * At 1058 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Sharon, 10 mile south of Martin, moving east at 60 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. At 1050 PM, multiple houses were destroyed in Kenton. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Dresden around 1105 PM CST. Gleason around 1110 PM CST. Palmersville around 1115 PM CST. Cottage Grove around 1120 PM CST. Paris around 1125 PM CST. Paris Landing State Park around 1140 PM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Matheny Grove, Sandhill, Ore Springs, Sidonia, Hyndsver, Jones Mill, Foundry Hill, Kimery, Crossland and Como. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation. &&

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Paducah KY Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 1103 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 KYC107-177-110515- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-211211T0515Z/ Muhlenberg KY-Hopkins KY- 1103 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR BREMEN, KY... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL MUHLENBERG AND EASTERN HOPKINS COUNTIES... At 1103 PM CST, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located 7 miles northwest of Central City, moving northeast at 50 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for BREMEN, KY. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Muhlenberg and eastern Hopkins Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. &&

We wish we could have this here... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Sacramento CA 138 PM PST Thu Dec 9 2021 ...Winter Storm to Bring Heavy Snow to the Mountains... .A strong winter storm will bring heavy snow to the mountains of northern California. Snow will first arrive to northwestern Shasta county late Saturday, spreading southeast into the southern Cascades and northern Sierra Saturday night or Sunday morning. Snow levels will gradually lower over time through late Monday and Tuesday. Expect major accumulations at pass level with several feet or more of snow. Anticipate significant travel delays with extremely difficult to impossible travel over the mountains. Strong winds will further reduce visibilities during this event with white-out conditions. CAZ014-068-069-101400- /O.NEW.KSTO.WS.A.0010.211212T0600Z-211215T0600Z/ Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County- Western Plumas County/Lassen Park- West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada- Including the city of Burney 138 PM PST Thu Dec 9 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow with very difficult to impossible travel conditions. Damage to trees and power lines is possible. Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 feet. Higher amounts of 6 to 9 feet possible above 6000 ft. * WHERE...Western Plumas County/Lassen Park and West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada including Interstate 80 over Donner Pass, Highway 50 over Echo Summit and Highway 88 over Carson Pass. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Tuesday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are possible with strong winds.

Yay wind! URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 330 AM EST Fri Dec 10 2021 MDZ001-003-004-501-502-VAZ503-WVZ051-052-501>505-101630- /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.A.0004.211211T2100Z-211212T0300Z/ Garrett-Washington-Frederick MD-Extreme Western Allegany- Central and Eastern Allegany-Western Highland-Morgan-Berkeley- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton- Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Grantsville, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Frostburg, Cumberland, Hightown, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, and Riverton 330 AM EST Fri Dec 10 2021 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds. &&

MRGL risk on new Day 2 from SPC for Saturday... 5% wind and 2% tor

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Dec 09 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging winds appear probable from mainly Friday evening into Friday night across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley. Some of these nocturnal tornadoes may be strong. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough initially over the western states Friday morning will advance eastward across the Plains through the day, eventually reaching the MS Valley by late Friday night into early Saturday morning. A broad area of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will be present ahead of the upper trough over much of the lower/mid MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low over southeastern CO Friday morning will develop eastward across the southern/central Plains through the day, before turning northeastward while deepening across parts of the Midwest to Great Lakes Friday evening/night. Substantial low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s, will likely already be established at the start of the period Friday morning across central/east TX into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. As both the large-scale upper trough and related surface low move eastward, this moist low-level airmass is expected to spread quickly northward in tandem with a warm front into parts of the mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast by Friday evening. A cold front attendant to the surface low will sweep eastward from the southern/central Plains to the vicinity of the TX Coast and MS River by the end of the period early Saturday morning. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast... A low-level inversion should tend to limit robust thunderstorm development through much of the morning and afternoon on Friday. But, with continued low-level moistening and diurnal heating, between 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will probably develop across the warm sector by early Friday evening. This instability will be more than sufficient to support severe, surface-based thunderstorms. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough will eventually erode the cap, and convective initiation appears increasingly likely around 00-03Z Friday evening. Even so, there is still some signal in guidance that surface-based thunderstorms may develop slightly earlier along a pre-frontal confluence band across the lower MS Valley and perhaps into the Mid-South as a subtle embedded shortwave trough overspreads this region through the day. Regardless of the timing of convective initiation, thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity by late Friday evening through early Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front as strong forcing/mid-level height falls preceding the upper trough overspread the warm sector. Deep-layer shear will become quite strong by Friday evening owing to the broad area of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds. 50-60+ kt of effective bulk shear will easily support updraft organization, including supercells. There remains uncertainty regarding dominant convective mode and overall evolution Friday night. Thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front along one or more pre-frontal confluence bands late Friday evening. If this occurs, then a broken band of supercells may develop, with additional thunderstorms forming later along the cold front farther west. Eventually, this convection should congeal into broken line segments and small clusters ahead of the front, while a squall line develops along the cold front itself. The southwesterly winds around 850 mb are still forecast to rapidly increase to 50-60+ kt Friday night across most of the warm sector. Even though winds may not veer much with height through the boundary layer, there will be ample speed shear. Strong 0-1-km SRH will likely support low-level rotation and the potential for tornadoes in any supercell than can develop, and with circulations embedded within the QLCS. Isolated large hail may also occur with any initially discrete storms. In addition, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds appear likely given the strength of the low/mid-level flow, as it will not take much for convective downdrafts to bring the enhanced flow aloft to the surface. Confidence has increased in a more favorable corridor for organized severe thunderstorms Friday night into early Saturday morning from roughly the vicinity of the MS River in eastern AR and northern MS northward into parts of the lower OH Valley. Across this region, the best overlap of sufficient instability, strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and a potentially favorable supercell mode may overlap for several hours (generally around 03-09Z). Have therefore increased severe wind and tornado probabilities across this region and have introduced and Enhanced Risk. Various forecast soundings from the 00Z NAM across this region show around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and effective SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2. This suggests some potential for nocturnal strong tornadoes. The northern extent of the severe risk across the Midwest and OH Valley remains uncertain. Some northward expansion of severe wind and tornado probabilities was made across this region based on latest guidance showing upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints possibly advancing a little farther north. The Slight Risk was also expanded eastward and southward across parts of the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley to account for a line of convection along or ahead of the cold front likely continuing to pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Gleason.. 12/09/2021

I mean dusting to an inch will be nice... considering it will be near 70 on Friday

I'm taking the 6z GFS and holding it tight

I'll take the 3-4" 6z GFS shows for me lol... hr 60 would be fun