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Winter Storm Watches/warnings issued by LWX

06z RGEM snow 00z RGEM snow

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 357 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-022200- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T2200Z/ Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline- Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic- Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, and Atlantic City 357 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of at least 4 to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland and central and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Hazardous conditions including snow-covered roads will likely impact the Monday morning commute, potentially lingering into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed one inch per hour at times Monday morning. Users should closely monitor the forecast today, as additional changes, potentially significant, are possible.

06z RGEM shifts NW DCA went from 0.6" qpf on 00z run to 0.9" qpf on 06z run

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 MDZ021>024-VAZ075-076-517-519-521-522-021700- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T2100Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Westmoreland- Richmond-Western King William-Western King and Queen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield, Princess Anne, Snow Hill, Sandy Point, Westmoreland, Colonial Beach, Leedstown, Oak Grove, Potomac Beach, Potomac Mills, Naylors Beach, Downing, Emmerton, Ethel, Farnham, Haynesville, Kennard, Aylett, Beazley, Biscoe, Henley Fork, Indian Neck, Newtown, Owenton, Saint Stephens Church, Tappahannock, and Dunnsville 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and east central Virginia. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Hello there URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-509>511-513-515-021700- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T1800Z/ Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Nottoway- Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Farmville, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Crewe, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Bon Air, Midlothian, and Richmond 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

From AKQ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-509>511-513-515-021700- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T1800Z/ Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Nottoway- Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Farmville, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Crewe, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Bon Air, Midlothian, and Richmond 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Snow may be heavy at times has entered the zone forecast products

You wouldn't mind sharing that awesome recipe wouldn't you? The sweet bread that is

Wizards... lol. Remember when they were like 10-4? Yeah...

Weee lol... around an inch in DC and quickly increases the farther south and southeast you go. EZF is 3 to 4 inches

Like look at the snow map (yeah yeah I know)

12z CMC almost into the cities... but big shift NW compared to 00z run... like big movement NW

Slightly higher heights out in front at 30 on 12z CMC compared to 00z run

Euro is next... for both

Lol both 00z CMC and UKIE have a large arctic blast coming into the US next week

The snow map on the 00z GFS is lulz

Thats about 25% which get the 2" line near or into DC... not bad

18z GEFS is definitely better for those in EZF/RIC area and S MD

18z GEFS I'm going to guess will have a few snowy members, as in like 4". Haven't seen it, just surmising

Quite the tight snowfall gradient on the 18z RGEM... worse than 12z definitely... but goes from nothing for Ji to like 6 inches for me lol

FWIW, 12z EPS was quite tasty in the extended

That's because of the snowfall prior to that night

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Widespread thunderstorms are expected from the ArkLaTex to the Western Appalachians on New Year's Day. All severe-weather hazards are possible including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough will be centered near the Great Basin to start the period. This trough will maintain its positive tilt as it shifts eastward across the Plains and into the Midwest by 12Z Sunday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly from the southern High Plains across the Midwest and Ohio Valley Saturday to the Northeast by Sunday morning. A surface reflection of this mid-level shortwave trough is expected to travel along the front from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians... There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the northward extent of the destabilization and severe-weather threat based on the position of the position of the surface front and the strength of the surface low. The NAM is stronger with the surface low with a much farther north warm front bringing low 60s dewpoints north of the Ohio River into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Southwest Ohio. However, the operational GFS is much weaker and southeast with the surface low and only brings low 60s dewpoints into south-central Kentucky. The ECMWF solution is between these two locations with the frontal position, which also closely resembles the GEFS mean. Therefore, the northern extent of the marginal and slight risk threat areas match the ECMWF and GEFS mean. A line of storms is expected to move through this region during the afternoon and early evening hours. Forecast soundings show more than 50 knots of flow only a few hundred meters above the surface. Therefore, mixing this strong flow to the surface should not be that difficult, even in a weak buoyancy environment. Low 60s dewpoints should yield MLCAPE around 250 to 500 J/kg across southern Kentucky, which increases the confidence for severe winds as the squall line moves through. In addition, a QLCS tornado threat will exist given the strong low-level speed shear present ahead of this line of storms. However, the limited instability and veered surface flow will be limiting factors to a greater tornado threat along this portion of the line. ...Portions of the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley... A large area of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, is expected to be ongoing from western Kentucky to northern Texas Saturday morning. As the surface low moves from the Plains into the Ozarks Saturday morning, this convection is expected to become better organized, likely into a squall line, and start to advance eastward. Dewpoints are forecast in the mid to upper 60s ahead of these storms, which should yield MLCAPE around 500 to 1500 J/kg from north to south. This should be more than sufficient to maintain a strong squall line through the afternoon and into the overnight hours across eastern Arkansas, most of Tennessee, and northern Mississippi and Alabama. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will result in strong low-level speed shear across the entire warm sector. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional flow in the lowest 1 km due to the veered surface flow across most of the warm sector as a result of the elongated nature of the surface pressure pattern. This should temper the tornado threat somewhat, but with the strong speed shear and the expectation of a well balanced squall line, the environment will still be supportive for QLCS tornadoes. Most guidance hints at the potential for some warm sector supercell development across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee Saturday afternoon/evening. The ECMWF has been especially bullish with pre-frontal convection for the last several days, which continues through the latest 00Z run. Any strong supercells which can develop in the open warm sector will likely have the greatest threat for significant to potentially intense tornadoes. The most likely region for pre-frontal supercell development will be from eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and possibly southern Tennessee where greater instability is forecast. Veered low-level flow will keep low-level directional shear limited during the first half of the day. However, at least slightly greater low-level turning is shown by forecast soundings during the late afternoon into the evening hours as surface flow remains south-southwest, while the low-level jet starts to veer more westerly as the main wave shifts east. This may result in a slightly higher tornado threat into the overnight hours from far eastern Mississippi into northern/central Alabama and northwest Georgia. ..Bentley.. 12/31/2021 Nothing says Happy New Year than a large 10% hatched tor prob

Nothing says Happy New Year than a large 10% hatched tor prob