yoda

18z ICON is interesting lol... Saturday is pretty much a washout until evening... then a 2nd SLP develops (i think its a seperate SLP from Ian?) and brings more heavy rainfall back Sunday afternoon as the run ends

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages. The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the east side of the cyclone. Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional wobbles to the north-northeast. A track toward the north-northeast is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall. This solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast, and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering features leading to big speed and track differences down the line, not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5 track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant re-strengthening is not expected at long range. The outflow pattern of the hurricane is beginning to be impinged upon in the southwestern quadrant, a sign that upper-level southwesterly flow is starting to affect the outer circulation. While the shear should increase up through landfall, it is just too close-to-call whether it starts to weaken Ian or not, or whether the larger system is able to resist the shear. Additionally, an eyewall replacement cycle could be in its initial phases, although predicting these structural changes is extremely difficult. The new forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus. I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents should heed the advice of local emergency management officials. The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Warning for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a warning. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is increasingly likely along the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all preparations to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect most of the Florida Peninsula for the next several days, spreading to the rest of the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding is expected with widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 24.0N 83.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 83.2W ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the west coast of Florida to Chokoloskee. The government of Cuba has downgraded the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa. The Tropical Storm Watch from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, for the Upper Florida Keys, Florida Bay, and for southeastern Florida from south of Boca Raton has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Watch from Marineland to the Flagler/Volusia County Line has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning. The Storm Surge Watch from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River has been discontinued. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River * St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas * Suwannee River to the Anclote River * All of the Florida Keys * Flamingo to Altamaha Sound * Flamingo to Chokoloskee * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West * Florida Bay * Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River * South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

Still 952mb/120mph at 5pm

LWX AFD from this afternoon .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry and cooler than average once again on Friday as strong high pressure remains entrenched over the northeastern CONUS. Highs for most will remain in the 60s. Rain chances start to encroach on our region as early as Friday evening as the remnants of what is now Hurricane Ian approach from the south. For the weekend and even into Monday, a great deal of uncertainty remain regarding the track of Hurricane Ian. What does seem certain at this point is that our region should at least see some rainfall from Ian Saturday into Sunday. Whether that is a beneficial or hazardous amount has yet to be seen. We will continue to monitor the forecast for Ian and adjust the forecast as needed. For updates on Hurricane Ian, visit the National Hurricane Center website at hurricanes.gov.

1-3" across the LWX CWA per the 00z UKIE

00z GFS says rainy Monday for all but some rain Sunday south of the i66 corridor... 00z CMC rainy late Sat into Monday morning

Thats why I said FWIW

So did the 00z GFS... so...

FWIW, 00z CMC slows down, but remains offshore of the west coast of FL as it goes by, makes landfall in the Big Bend of FL

lol look at the 00z GFS at 126... decent CAD... 1034mb HP in Quebec...

Thats a long time Ian is hanging around Tampa with little movement on the 00z GFS... 30 hours

if you choose to accept the 00z ICON, that would be a rainy weekend with maybe a threat for a few isolated tornadoes

lol 00z ICON goes for a 2nd landfall at Savannah, GA at 102

day 5 NHC has Ian (as a TD) in S NC

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Ian continues to become better organized on satellite images with intense deep convection in its Central Dense Overcast and numerous surrounding banding features. The overall cloud pattern is quite symmetric with well-defined upper-level outflow. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure is falling, and the intensity is increased to 90 kt based on a recently reported 700 mb flight-level wind of 101 kt from the Air Force plane. This is also in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB. Aside from its relatively brief time passing over western Cuba, Ian will be moving over waters of very high oceanic heat content during the next couple of days. The various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show a significant probability of RI and this is reflected in the short-term official intensity forecast. However, the SHIPS guidance, which is based on global model predictions, indicates that a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a substantially drying of low- to mid-level air will begin in 24-36 hours. The NHC forecast, like the previous one, shows strengthening to Category 4 intensity in a day or so, followed by gradual weakening. However, Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus predictions. Ian continues its north-northwestward trek at about 340/11 kt. The hurricane is expected to move north-northwestward to northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. After around 36 hours, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, since there is considerable divergence of the track models in the 2-3 day time frame. The guidance also shows considerable slowing of the forward speed, due to a weakening of the steering currents, when Ian approaches the west coast of Florida. This slower forward motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The official track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning overnight and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday. This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. 5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South Florida Tuesday, spreading into central and northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding, including significant, prolonged river flooding, is likely across Central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

@Eskimo Joe would like

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Ian continues to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The last report from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around 1630 UTC found 700-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt. The inner core appears better organized, and the eyewall structure has greatly improved in radar imagery from the Cayman Islands. The 18 UTC satellite classifications from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, but the continued improvement in satellite structure warrants raising the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain very favorable for additional intensification during the next 24 h or so, as Ian moves over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico while the shear remains quite low. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Ian to become a major hurricane before it reaches western Cuba early Tuesday. It is then forecast to reach its peak intensity over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 36 h. After that, southwesterly shear in association with a deep-layer trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to significantly increase over the hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday, which will likely disrupt the vertical structure and import drier air into its circulation. Despite these less favorable conditions, Ian is still forecast to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. The NHC intensity forecast agrees well with the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. Ian has made an expected turn toward the north-northwest, and its initial motion is 330/11 kt. The hurricane will move north-northwestward to northward over the next day or so as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. A turn to the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Ian moves near the west coast of Florida. The slower forward motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The latest track guidance has come into better agreement on this scenario, although it is noted that small deviations to the shore-parallel track could have large implications on the impacts at particular locations along the west coast of Florida. The NHC track forecast has again been adjusted slightly eastward at 48-72 h, which follows the latest trends in the global model guidance and lies near but just west of the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest forecast and timing of expected impacts, Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued along the west coast of Florida. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. 4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 20.3N 83.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 27.5N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 28.1N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 30.1N 82.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart

BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 ...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... ...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Anclote River southward to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, including the St. Johns River. The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning from Englewood southward to Flamingo. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Bonita Beach to Englewood. The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound. The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman and the Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.