yoda

@weatherwiz and others (figured this would get seen more in here rather then in the tropics thread)

This looks fun

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022 Convection associated with Danielle has continued to decrease this morning, with a corresponding decrease in satellite intensity estimates. Based on this decrease, it is estimated that Danielle has weakened to a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 60 kt. While it is not known why the storm has weakened, one possibility is that the slow motion has allowed the cyclone to upwell cold water underneath it. Danielle is essentially stationary with a 12-h motion of 270/1 kt. The cyclone is still caught south of a blocking high over the North Atlantic. This pattern is expected to hold firm for a couple of days, with the system forecast to drift westward and then drift northward. After 48-60 h, the block will weaken and allow the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies to steer Danielle generally northeastward at a faster forward speed. There are no significant changes to the forecast track for the first 48-60 h. After that, the forecast has been nudged eastward due to a shift in the guidance envelope. The intensity guidance is still calling for Danielle to strengthen for 72 h or so. Given the possibility of upwelling and the forecast continued slow motion, the guidance might be a bit optimistic on that. The new intensity forecast calls for little change in strength for 12 h or so, followed by slow strengthening on the premise that the storm will move over somewhat warmer water. After 72 h, the storm is likely to interact with an upper-level trough, which could help maintain the intensity even as Danielle moves toward much colder water in the North Atlantic. This trough will also start extratropical transition, although this will likely not be complete by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 38.0N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 38.1N 44.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 38.5N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 39.1N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 39.9N 43.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 40.7N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 43.0N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 46.5N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Lol BULLETIN Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022 ...DANIELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 43.8W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 43.8 West. Danielle is currently nearly stationary. A westward drift is expected today and Sunday, followed by a northward drift on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Some slight strengthening is expected tonight through Monday, and Danielle could regain hurricane strength on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022 The high-latitude tropical cyclone has had quite the increase in organization today. Recent microwave and visible satellite imagery shows decent banding features and convection wrapping around the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB both estimate Danielle to be a 45-kt system. However, since the storm has continued to improve in appearance, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Danielle is drifting eastward at 2 kt. A strong anticyclone over the system is creating light and variable steering flow and Danielle should continue to meander for the next few days. In about 4 days, the anticyclone is expected to weaken and move eastward and a mid-latitude trough should turn and accelerate Danielle to the northeast. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly westward from the previous prediction and is close to the model consensus aids. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear to be conducive for additional strengthening during the next few days. The tropical storm is over anomalously warm waters and global model guidance indicates the vertical wind shear should gradually decrease over the next few days. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based on the recent strengthening trend and now shows a peak intensity of 85 kt in 60 hours. Thereafter, when Danielle is forecast to turn northward, it is expected to gradually weaken over cooler water temperatures and increased vertical wind shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 38.1N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 38.1N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 38.0N 44.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 38.0N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 38.2N 45.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 38.7N 44.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 40.5N 43.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 42.5N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

I know... just we've been waiting for the MDR and rest of the ATL to do something and Danielle way up north shows up

Would be funny to watch Danielle become our first MH

I must say the 5 day map is kinda funny... almost looks like it says shhh

Yup, nothing at 5pm

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 401 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0335 PM TSTM WND DMG GREAT FALLS 39.01N 77.29W 08/30/2022 FAIRFAX VA 911 CALL CENTER A FEW TREES DOWN IN GREAT FALLS. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2204933

70mph gusts in updated SWS

MWS said 49 kts which is 56mph

Last chance severe for a while .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... On Tuesday, a cold front pressing eastward through the Ohio Valley will present an active weather day across the Mid- Atlantic. Downstream of this system, the air mass is likely to remain very warm and humid. Forecast high temperatures are expected to rise into the low 90s with heat indices to around the century mark. Unlike the previous couple of days which had subsidence aloft, increasing lift ahead of the trough will bring more widespread convection to the area. Increasing surface-based CAPEs of around 2,000-2,500 J/kg are noted in the guidance, but with marginal vertical shear profiles. Accordingly, storms may not be terribly organized aside from cells that attain more of a line structure. Any such line segments would promote a damaging wind threat. SPC`s Day 2 convective outlook places most of the area in a Marginal risk for severe weather. Initially storms should ignite along the lee trough during the early afternoon before spreading eastward toward the I-95 corridor. Additionally, some degree of flooding risk exists given PWATs around 1.50-1.75 inches and the potential for repeat convection. WPC highlights the entire area in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

This must be INVESTigated! I'll see myself out now

Hmmm... are you nearby the Navy Yard or Naval Academy? My sister is a contractor and graduated from the Naval Academy in 2011... she is moving up quickly in the safety levels -- she does a lot of the safety stuff for the new Virginia and Columbia class subs that are being built

GFS continues wanting to develop the Carribean disturbance which counters upper ridging with a TUTT thereby inhibiting favorable conditions for the Atlantic system. The ECMWF is completely opposite with no WCARIB development thereby allowing a nice upper level pattern to develop downstream for a hypothetical hurricane nearto or north of the Greater Antilles. And we usually would think the EURO is the better model so we go with that one lol... but this tropical season, who knows?

Um, I would take the GFS before the ICON in the tropics

Winner winner... um, rainy dinner?

00z EURO/00z EPS looked interesting tropical wise... after Day 10 ofc

00z EURO says lets go BIG

Besides a hurricane into N MX around Day 9 that crosses the N Yucatan Peninsula around Day 7... 00z GFS not really enthused with anything out in the Atlantic for its run tonight 00z GGEM has a middle Atlantic storm... but its in the process of recurve at Day 10 after slow meandering west movement from Day 5 on -- its' also a good distance east of the Antilles FWIW. 00z GGEM does not have any resemblance of the 00z GFS hurricane. Neither really show anything of interest coming off Africa either... but granted this will change next run of course lol ETA -- if you want something interesting tonight, the 00z ICON will strike your fancy lol. Takes the middle Atlantic low and develops it by Day 4/5. But instead of taking a CMC path of recurve, it is just north of the Greater Antilles at 180 moving W/WNW

Nope Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A broad and complex area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The interaction of this feature with an approaching tropical wave could support some gradual development of the system during the early and middle parts of next week while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Eastern Caribbean Sea: A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development of this system during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

I'm gathering that the 12z Euro would be a SE coast threat after 240

i stopped reading after lots of snow and very cold

Wonder if that s/w in MI would cause a recurve at the last minute at 384... yes I know it's fantasy land, but it's pretty much the only interesting thing on the models right now