yoda

1046mb HP in W Quebec will do that... hope it's right Slightly better cold press on 12z compared to 06z... but it's in late land on the NAM lol

And it's not like a 50 mile shift east would be huge for all of us... it's 5 days out.

Violently agree

I see a long few days ahead for our mods

I'd take the 06z EPS in a heartbeat

Looks like the 06z Euro looks good through 90... I believe

I'd take the UKIE and Euro as well

When does the 06z EPS come out again?

No one on the East Coast likes this run... quick heavy snow to rain for all

lulz... 989 over DCA at 120

Primary is taking too long to transfer... DCA flirting with rain at 114

Mod-heavy snow in DCA at 111

Snow just SW of DCA at 108

Snow moving into CHO at 105

Note it is still snowing heavily across the region as the deformation band is moving through eastward at 120

06z ICON looks good to me... those temps though are a bit lol... teens and 20s

Morning AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Saturday will be the "calm before the storm" during the long term period across our region. A strong 1040+ mb artic high will be building to our north, setting the stage for much colder air. Highs will likely not make it above freezing for most on Saturday, but we should be dry during this period. Elsewhere on Saturday, a winter storm will be brewing over the central Plains and into the southeast. The first key feature will be a very strong Alberta Clipper system that dives out of Canada through the central Plains and into the southeast by Saturday night. The upper low looks to cut off over the southeast Saturday night. Meanwhile, probably the most important piece of the puzzle will be another upper low diving out of central Canada into the Great Lakes region Sunday through Monday morning. For our area, this sets the stage for a potentially high impact winter storm across the region. Surface low pressure will slide across the southeast before transferring energy off the east coast into Sunday night. As is so often the case with these storms, the track, as well as warm air aloft, are going to be key in who gets an all snow event versus who gets a wintry mix and who may even just get a plain cold rain. Guidance is starting to come into at least some agreement that areas west of the I-95 corridor could be in for a high impact winter storm, while the I-95 corridor and areas east still hold some uncertainty. Virtually all guidance at this point is at least agreeing on a strong low moving up the eastern seaboard, it is just a matter of how close it tracks to the coast. Again, as is often the case, 20 miles can make all the difference. Those details will have to be ironed out as we continue to move closer to the event. For now, just be prepared for a potentially high impact winter storm across the area, and check weather.gov/lwx/winter for more updates on the forecast as we get closer to the event. One minor change on this cycle is that the guidance seems to be speeding up in terms of when the low departs. By Monday morning most of the precipitation should be off to our northeast. High pressure then briefly returns through Tuesday, with highs expected to be near seasonal averages.

50 mile east shift on the Euro and EPS and we all rejoice... or we just take the UKIE lol

Looks like the 06z EPS took a nice step toward the GFS

We also don't have to necessarily hope cold air is around either. We should have that already.

Morning AFD from LWX (4am update) .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will move into the region Friday, with cooler air and a gustier wind as low pressure strengthens off the coast. Highs will drop 5-10 degrees below Thursday`s readings. From then, all attention is on the potential weekend snowstorm. A great deal of uncertainty with this system remains, given the long-wave trough over the region which could support intense cyclogenesis (as depicted by the 0Z GFS). However, the trajectory of the shortwave energy will make a huge amount of difference as it dives south across the Plains later this week and then rounds the base of the trough. If it ends up too shallow, it could move off the coast before strengthening significantly, as suggested by various model runs over the last few days. If it ends up diving too deep, it could potentially end up digging well to our south and remain there, as depicted by the 0Z ECMWF and GGEM. 0Z GFS is near a golden sweet spot, but this situation will likely evolve significantly over the next few days as guidance gets a better handle on the disturbances involved. In particular, the main shortwave energy remains over the north Pacific south of the Aelutians, a fairly data sparse area, which means guidance could change significantly in any direction as better observational information on the shortwave is included. The one thing we are relatively confident in is that it will be cold. With the trough in place and a fresh high pressure building in behind the front later this week, temps likely struggle to reach freezing over the weekend, particularly Saturday.

lol the 3hr snow maps are porn at 147-153 as the deform band goes by... they are just silly

oh hello there