yoda

Looks like another little line developed and is moving in

What is that near Gainesville/Haymarket area on radar?

LWX morning disco re the threat also looks nice .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A deep mid/upper low will lift from the Great Lakes into Ontario Saturday. A lead shortwave will take on a negative tilt as it approaches and crosses the area during this time. Strong upper-level divergence beneath a coupled jet structure and strong PVA are expected to cross the area during peak heating. In the low levels, a strong cold front will be moving across the area. Strong and deep convergence will aid in lift, compensating for a lack of stronger CAPE given modest moisture return. Still, CAPE values of 300-800 J/kg are expected right along the front. Strong surface-3km AGL shear of 35-50 kts is expected along the front as well, along with some backed near-surface flow and SRH of 100-250 m2/s2. A dry slot in the morning will lead to ample surface heating near/east of I-81 and especially in the I-95 corridor (where dew points will also be a touch higher). A few discrete cells (possible supercellular activity) may form during the midday to early afternoon hours just ahead of the front posing a risk of gusty winds, hail, or a couple brief tornadoes. Then, as the strongly forced frontal system crosses, a squall line will likely develop. This line may contain strong to damaging wind gusts, with a continued conditional risk of spin- ups given the strong shear. The intensity of convection may further be aided by steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km in the 700-500 hPa layer along and ahead of the front. A low-level jet of 40+ kts at 850 hPa will advect in higher moisture content (i.e. PWs of 1-1.5") right along the front. Flow may be briefly boundary-parallel, resulting in some training and up to 2" of rain in a few localized areas. Should this rainfall occur over urban centers, some minor flooding issues could result. Otherwise, recent dry conditions should prevent more widespread flooding concerns.

Good call sir Intriguing disco too 2/5/15 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado will all be possible. A marginal severe threat could also develop in parts of Florida and in parts of Texas. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt upper trough will swing northeastward across the OH Valley and across the Appalachians during the day, with strong height falls into the Mid Atlantic by late afternoon or early evening. To the west, moderate west/northwest flow aloft will persist over the southern Plains with an upper ridge over the West. At the surface, low pressure will gradually deepen as it moves across western NY into parts of southwest Ontario, with cold front pushing rapidly east across the Carolinas, VA and PA during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, 50s F dewpoints will be common into PA and NJ, with 60+ dewpoints from southeast VA southward. Aiding moisture advection will be a 40+ kt low-level jet at 850 mb, which will also increase low-level shear. Elsewhere, moisture return will occur from Deep South TX up the Rio Grade Valley, reaching parts of central TX late as an east-west oriented cold front makes southward progress through the period. ...Carolina/Mid Atlantic... Heating and moisture advection will lead to a favorably unstable air mass for severe storms as the upper wave and surface trough push east during the afternoon. MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg over much of the warm sector, and primarily from eastern VA southward. Although instability will be weaker farther north into PA and NJ, this will be in the area experiencing strong cooling aloft with the upper vorticity max. Overall, hodographs will favor cellular activity with storms ahead of the cold front. A broken line or perhaps fully linear storm mode may occur with time as the cold front surges. Hail will be favored during the day, and modest SRH values of 100-150 m2/s2 and lack of a cap may support a few supercells. The severe risk is expected to wane as it approaches the coast due to stabilization.

Pretty decent squall line I guess on 18z NAM NEST rolling through Saturday evening around dinnertime... looks like 18z NAM has same idea

EF3 damage found so far in Cole, OK

Damn

Uh... what kind of watchbox is this supposed to be?

Norman Twitter is fascinating

Uh oh Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 945 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 OKC125-200315- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-230420T0315Z/ Pottawatomie OK- 945 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY... At 945 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Tecumseh, moving east at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Shawnee, Tecumseh, Earlsboro, and Bethel Acres. This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 191 and 194. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3524 9700 3532 9703 3536 9696 3540 9678 3524 9678 TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 255DEG 23KT 3529 9697 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

Those tornado warning boxes are covering like three counties... but there are 6 different ones

^ Sun and 65-75 will be perfect IMO for late April

Day 2 ENH up for Saturday

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/36180941/sources-josh-harris-non-exclusive-deal-buy-commanders

What exactly is a squeegee line lol LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A negatively tilted upper level trough will dig into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday as the associated low moves over the Great Lakes. A few models show the trough becoming cutoff as it moves eastward creating uncertainty in the forecast. Either way, the associated cold front will cross the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night bringing rain showers and thunderstorms. 12z guidance from both the ECMWF/GFS have the front arriving in the west of the Blue Ridge after 22z/6pm before pushing eastward late Sunday night into early Monday morning. As for severe weather, the threat is dependent on timing. The earlier the front the more CAPE to work with compared to the latter. For now, thinking a "squeegee line" of gusty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Sunday evening into Sunday night. CAPE values sit between 400-800 j/kg with 0-6km bulk effective shear values modeled at 45-60kts. Wind would be the primary threat from this line as it pulls through. Much needed rain will also accompany this boundary, but not enough to quell the current drought/fire weather concerns.

Finally https://www.wusa9.com/article/sports/nfl/washington-commanders/washington-commanders-sale-dan-snyder-josh-harris-magic-johnson-mitchell-rales/65-8b8b6966-46d2-4316-b0cb-fd9202857db4

Nope According to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, the Ravens backed up the Brinks truck for Beckham Jr., giving him $15 million in guaranteed money. The breakdown of the contract includes a $1.165 million base salary, a $13.835 million signing bonus, and an extra $3 million in reachable incentives. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/ravens-backed-brinks-truck-odell-225119749.html

Should get a couple tenths with this last little round of showers coming in I think

Pretty nice dual hail cores just south of LYH

Afternoon AFD from LWX for tomorrow's threat SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will cross the Appalachians Thursday morning, then slowly press east through the day. Summer-like heat and humidity will result in building instability ahead of the front. Convergence along the boundary and height falls aloft signal a potential for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, and moderately strong deep-layer shear will likely tend to organize any convection that develops. Although the shear is favorable for supercells, the shear vector and storm motions may tend to align parallel to the approaching front; this suggests a more linear storm mode. Should more discrete activity persist, there may be a more substantial hail and wind risk, perhaps even a conditional tornado threat near/east of I-95 where flow will be back due to a bay/river breeze. Otherwise, gusty to locally damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. There is uncertainty in the extent of instability - morning cloud cover could temper this - but overall the relatively higher chances for strong to severe thunderstorms appear to be between noon and 5pm south of I-70 and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The front will slowly push offshore through the end of the week. Dry air will gradually work into the region, but lingering moisture and mid/upper jet forcing may lead to lingering showers especially across central VA to southern MD.

Also interesting are the soundings for the area today... especially north and west of DC on the 12z NAM Nest and 12z NAM

Right at peak time for severe... 19z to 21z

Afternoon AFD from LWX sounds interesting SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A lead wave ahead of a frontal system over the Ohio River Valley will approach the area late Wednesday. Ridging will crest over the area before heights begin to fall by Wednesday night. Given the increasingly warm and unstable airmass, as well as some added lift from terrain and the approach system to the west, a few thunderstorms could develop mainly west of the Blue Ridge late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Sufficient shear will be present for storm organization, so a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. The frontal system is set to cross the region on Thursday. Cooling air moving in aloft above unseasonably warm and moist air near the surface will likely result in moderate instability. This coupled with moderately strong shear and forcing along the approaching front should result in widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become capable of producing severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given relatively weaker flow closer to the surface, but there is enough shear for supercells. Also, any boundary interactions (terrain/bay/river breeze circulations) could enhance this activity. Temperatures will be very warm with highs well into the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70 east of the mountains Wednesday into Thursday, 20 to 30 degrees above normal and more akin to summer than spring. Temperatures will take a tumble Thursday night behind the front.

Discussion was pretty decent as well Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for severe weather are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Deep South Texas Thursday. ...Synopsis... Within the main branch of split westerlies emanating from the Pacific, models indicate that a broad, occluded cyclone, initially centered near James Bay, will continue to weaken during this period. Renewed cyclogenesis may occur farther east, across northern Quebec through Newfoundland and Labrador, but it appears that this will remain modest in strength. The associated cold front trailing to the south is forecast to advance from the upper Ohio Valley and lee of the lower Great Lakes across much of the northern into middle Atlantic by late Thursday night, as the remnant mid-level troughing accelerates eastward and suppresses mid-level short wave ridging initially building across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. In lower latitudes, prominent mid-level ridging appears likely to be maintained, centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula, and a considerable influence across much of the Southeast. Beneath its northwestern periphery, the trailing flank of the cold front is expected to weaken while slowly advancing across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, seasonably moist return flow will persist along/above it, downstream of low amplitude mid-level troughing across the subtropical eastern Pacific into the northern Mexican Plateau. ...Mid Atlantic... Preceding the cold front, models continue indicate that low-level moisture return coupled with daytime heating will support modest destabilization east of the Allegheny Mountains by Thursday afternoon. Scattered storms probably will initiate along the higher terrain, with at least deep-layer shear conducive to supercells structures posing a risk for severe wind and hail. Tornado potential remains a bit more uncertain. Storms are likely to gradually spread off the higher terrain with the mid-level height falls, and they could eventually consolidate into an organizing line or cluster overspreading coastal areas with potential for damaging wind gusts. It does not appear out of the question that severe weather probabilties could be increased further in later outlooks for this period.