yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Okay, who was playing around with the KCHO ASOS earlier?
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Landfall near or just SE of KTLH
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Hmmm... weakens 15 to 20mb from 168 to 174
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Headed to the Big Bend of FL at 168
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Actually looks like it's going to make landfall just north of Tampa at 228
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Indeed... luckily skirts by as it heads north... but very close
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Looks like Big Bend of FL
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Entering E GOM at 180
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Smacking extreme western Cuba at 168 at 985mb per TT
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I believe @OSUmetstud is in NF? Or nearby...
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Yup... and 850mb has 45 to 50kt winds too at 270 lol... so some wind as well
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06z GFS FWIW quick recurve out to sea this run
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00z CMC is... weird. Follows 00z GFS in that it moves due north after reaching SE Bahamas... then at Day 7, takes a NW jog toward NC... then Day 8 says nope and starts to head NE but is near HSE at 204... then an abrupt right turn out to sea as a s/w comes barrelling into the Great Lakes
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00z GFS OP this run gets Fiona into the SE Bahamas then moves due north... takes a leisurely pace north Days 7-10... could be a Bermuda threat
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11pm track has Fiona making landfall and moving through the DR and Haiti.... that would certainly cause some issues
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18z GFS OP next weekend would be a bit breezy lol
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Last advisory on Earl issued at 5pm... so now we wait... for awhile
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12z NAM keeps the majority of the rain (i.e. >.5") west of the i95 corridor with the heaviest along the BR and parts of the i81 corridor 12z 3km NAM is more scattershot with its heavier rain totals... one in PW county, along the BR, out near Winchester, and in NE MD
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Those types of storms, thankfully, are rare though
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Yes... but that usually means a mess of a system or just tropical storm stuff
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LWX morning AFD makes mention of it: There are beginning to be some hints towards the end of the long term period that a low pressure system spins up off the Atlantic coast along the stalled frontal boundary offshore over the Gulf Stream. For now, keeping that out of the forecast, as there are more pieces of guidance that keep this feature offshore or don`t develop it at all. This is just something to watch at this point in time.
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Nothing of interest really anywhere on the 00z GFS and 00z EURO runs tonight... besides maybe some crappy TS system late in the GFS run (i.e. Day 12+) that shows up in the E GOM and heads into the W ATL out to sea
