yoda

FWIW, both the 06z NAM/RGEM kick out the energy in the SW and don't hold any of it back at 84

I mean... this is nice already

00z ggem looks interesting for Thursday... just misses east for weekend but is very close ETA: Looks like it would be Thursday morning... but would be rain with 2mT in mid 30s but still... close to something

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 833 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ025>031-039- 040-051>055-057-501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-055-170945- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0003.220117T1300Z-220118T0100Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Madison, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, and Moorefield 833 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of The District of Columbia, central, north central, northeast, northern and southern Maryland, northern, northwest and western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 8 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will likely blow down scattered trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are possible. Loose outdoor objects may be blown away or damaged.

Stay safe out there URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 833 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-507-508-WVZ501>506-170945- /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0001.220117T1300Z-220118T0100Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Grantsville, Frostburg, Cumberland, Hightown, Monterey, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 833 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, central, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 8 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down numerous trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

Well that's interesting

Snow has covered side roads with ease here

Snowing already here

Work is chiming me about tonight's shift

So did the SNE forum

DCA down to 17 at least

I don't know about cutting inland. Both the CMC and Euro were showing stout banana highs. I think we're either at a flush hit or being pushed south.

It's better than 00z overall but yes... that h5 low out west is causing the s/w to not dig as far west as we want

DCA was at 18 at 4am

LWX AFD from this morning for the Friday into Saturday potential .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will move east to allow for a cold front to approach the region during the day Wednesday. The front will bring a chance for rain and/or snow showers late Wednesday through Thursday morning. A gusty and chilly northwest wind will develop behind the front as a second area of high pressure builds to our northwest. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal Thursday. Below normal temperatures will continue Friday with high pressure covering the region. Models are indicating a potential coastal low pressure system Friday night into the day Saturday. The GFS develops a coastal low near coastal Carolina, intensifying it but keeping it moving out to sea. Thus, leaving us dry with a winter chill. The European model shows a significant winter storm with wind and heavy snow for much of our region late Friday through Saturday. The Canadian model shows an elongated coastal low pressure system along the Carolina Coast. intensifying it and moving it northward toward southern New England. This would put strong winds in the east and moderate to heavy snow accumulations along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. We still have 5 to 6 days until this potential winter storm, so the exact track and intensity could change quite a few times between now and then.

Looks like DCA gets to 0.35" QPF by 00z on latest HRRR... and sounding shows us flirting with some sleet... so I'm guessing that's all snow before... 2 to 4 before being erased by cold rain would be acceptable

There are some monster hits in the EPS

Um thanks? Enjoy this storm that you are getting tomorrow then while we enjoy the weekend storm if it occurs

CMC had it snow 1 to 3 inches DC metro south and still showed a major storm for us. Euro actually had no snow (actually light rain) and had the monster storm... so I'm not sure it will matter... but I'll let someone more knowledgeable speak up on it

This is just... wow

Only 6 days or so out too

Matt has to be salivating at that run too

Hi Eek! I missed your posts. Hope you are doing well

15 to 20 degrees at DCA 156 and 162 lol