yoda

12z EPS just a tad different than the Euro OP at Day 9 lol

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 VAZ025>027-029-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-506-131645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0007.221215T0000Z-221216T0300Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations in excess of one quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 MDZ001-501-502-WVZ050-055-501>504-131645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0007.221215T0300Z-221216T0600Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Hampshire-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral- 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations in excess of one quarter of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice and strong winds. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes.

12z EC Ensembles should be fun

I81 and i66 corridor get smoked with ice if you accept the 12z CMC

Everyone goes to rain by 132

12z CMC starts frozen at 114 Still frozen i95 and west at 126

Hmmm

LWX morning disco on the threat .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... H5 riding will briefly build in Tuesday as a 1036 mb + high remains over eastern Quebec. This will result in subsidence at the surface with dry and sunny conditions. Temps will be in the low 40s for most (30s mountains). Now for the main focus of the long term, the highly advertised storm system. There remains considerable spread between different global guidance - with the GFS having more of a suppressed/progressive wave while the Euro is much more amplified. Overall ensemble guidance continues to support the Euro with a parent ULL moving through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Northeast/offshore into the Atlantic by Friday/Saturday. Uncertainty remains regarding any coastal low formation and associated wintry precipitation. Given the anomalous high pressure north of the region and surface ridge extending down the spine of the Appalachians, wintry precipitation (all types) is possible across the entire area in the late Wednesday to early Friday timeframe with higher chances along and west of the Blue Ridge mountains. Will continue to monitor this system as it gets closer and confidence increases. As the ULL moves offshore, there is the potential for a long- duration upslope snow event. Models hint at 24+ hours of QPF across the mountains starting near 12Z Friday into Saturday. This will be highly dependent on the aforementioned system and ULL pattern, will continue to monitor. Strong winds are possible areawide on the backside of the low. Temps will be below normal behind the system.

Only 7 of the 50 members support the OP run

Euro Control is going to support the OP... lets see what the individ ensembles say in a few

What's also interesting are the soundings during this storm on this 00z EURO run. Mostly below zero until you reach about 950mb to the surface for the areas that are breach 32 degrees... so its a very small warm layer at the very bottom

Through 240, 8 members drop greater then or equal to 2" of snow at DCA. 4 members drop 6"+... while 2 members are full fledged snowstorms (one member for all and one member for N VA/C MD)

There are a couple loltastic 12z EURO ensemble members for next Friday into Saturday FWIW

50/50 low, -NAO... cold air coming in from Canada...

This looks good to me unless I'm wrong... which is possible lol.

Question though -- PW shows 0" for me on its 10:1 and Kuchera snow maps. But snow depth has me over 2". Does snow depth count sleet?

Yeah I know its 9 days out... but there's just enough of a warm nose at 800mb that DCA mainly sits with sleet for the "event". Rest of the column is fine lol

Nevertheless... its a frozen event for most Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Unfortunately it's mainly sleet and freezing rain, but we all will take what we can get ETA -- Pivotal suggests N MD near the M/D line sees some decent snow with a BRUTAL cutoff... 0" for me, 3" in DC... 8" in BWI FWIW

h5 energy is pretty much going over us at 234. SLP in W PA. dryslot for most of us. Transfer off Ocean City by 240

The HP is weakening slowly and moving north by 225. Sleety mess through 225 ETA -- Sleet storm still at 228... 1040 HP way up in N Quebec. EZF dancing with FRZ RN but RN is close by. 998mb SLP in OH

18z GFS is taking too long with developing the storm for next weekend. Stout HP is right where we need it going into the weekend in a perfect place though

Mmmm yes Suarez... cry some more for me

12z GGEM has some arctic cold at the end of its run west of the Mississippi River behind what looks to be a future cutter at 240 looking at h5 I think with a 1034 HP up in Canada but I don't think that will save us... granted I am probably wrong lol This run of the GFS takes away our Dec 8-10 threat as the SLP manages to sneak through between one HP leaving and one incoming. Onto the ensembles though