yoda

06z GFS is more an east NC hit than anything else of 4-8

My mistake on the deleted post... 06z RGEM went other direction for us and missed

went the wrong way at 06z compared to 00z

So Day 9 and 10 Euro...

Seems to be the intriguing trend that the ensemble means are more amplified than the OP runs tonight

00z GEFS ensemble mean SLP placement looks alot better than 18z imo

Thank you

How about at 49 lol

Not much difference on the 06z EURO at the h5 level through 48 comparing it to the 00z run so far...

06z GEFS snowfall mean was still very nice

Looks like a bit more phasing this time comparing 06z GFS at 84 to 00z GFS 90 at the h5 level... but lets see where it goes from here... Nope... still not there

Morning AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... To conclude the work week, the longwave pattern will feature an upper ridge across the eastern Pacific with a myriad of shortwaves tracking between the Intermountain West and Mississippi Valley. Resolving the complexity of these impulses will be the key to determining the level of threat a winter storm poses to the region late Friday into Saturday. On Friday morning, conditions should be quite chilly in the wake of the cold frontal passage 24 hours prior. A seasonably cold surface ridge sets up from the Great Lakes up into Quebec with pressures around 1041-1043 mb. Starting off, temperatures are forecast to be in the teens east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctins, with single digits off to the west. If any residual wind persists, there may be a threat for wind chill headlines over the Alleghenies where forecasts call for -5 to -15 degree readings. Clouds will be on the increase as southwesterly flow aloft steers a shield of mid/high level moisture toward the Eastern Seaboard. Expect plenty of clouds with highs struggling to escape the low/mid 20s in many spots. The looming question heading into the weekend is whether it will snow, and exactly how much will fall. The 00Z deterministic model suite all show a surface low forming in the vicinity of the southeastern U.S. coast by Friday evening. Surveying the ensemble low plots from the 00Z GEFS/EPS/CMC means yields plenty of menacing low tracks for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm. Most notably, the EPS members are more numerous and deeper than the other solutions. This will continue to be monitored in the days ahead as the parent shortwave currently appears as an innocuous wave over far northern Alberta. Until it moves into a denser observation network, uncertainty will continue to plague the forecast. One thing that is a sure bet is it will be cold heading into Saturday morning with temperatures in the teens to low 20s. For Saturday, the high temperature forecast will highly dependent on the storm track with any resultant snowpack. It does seem certain to be chilly with temperatures around 8 to 13 degrees below average. Conditions remain on the colder side through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. The upper pattern changes very little with the stagnant ridge over the eastern Pacific and broad cyclonic flow over northeastern North America. Reinforcing shots of cold air will arrive with each passing disturbance. This keeps forecast highs in the 30s on Sunday into Monday with the mountains confined to the 20s. Overnight lows stay well below average as well with temperatures in the 10s to low 20s. For the Saturday and Sunday period, the winds will be dependent on the coastal low track. So the forecast has been kept more conservative given the degree of uncertainty.

Looks like better phasing on the 18z

18Z EURO h5 at 90

Not a whole lot of difference between 18z EURO at 60 and 12z EURO at 66

we thank you for your sacrifice

Isnt the CMC closer to the EURO then the GFS?

I think it looks a little bit better at 72 re 18z GFS

When the Euro retakes his throne and is right about this threat

Very nice

FWIW, 12z EPS Control is another huge hit for all

The EURO has had enough of the faux King GFS these past two weeks and is looking to reclaim his throne

Randy said SV maps are 12-18... so... they are close