yoda

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 222 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build overhead tonight into Friday. An area of low pressure will track to our south Friday night into Saturday bringing light snow to the area. High pressure will build back in for Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Aside from a few mountain snow showers across the Alleghenies, dry conditions are expected with sunny skies. Well below normal temperatures continue despite the sunshine as Arctic high pressure builds in. Have gone well below NBM guidance tonight across typical areas the radiate efficiently in high pressure given the snowpack across the region. Generally along/north of US-50/I-66 the winds area forecast to remain elevated. Therefore, temps are going to be warmer (relatively speaking) than those in the Shenandoah Valley and Culpeper area. Feels like temperatures will be several degrees above the air temperatures, but generally marginally above Cold Weather Advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure overhead will slide east Friday while an elongated longwave upper trough digs into the Southeast US. Guidance has been very consistent with taking an associated surface low south of our area and then off the coast of the Carolinas. With this track, the bulk of precipitation associated with this system will also fall to our south. However, there remains uncertainty with several features of the system as depicted by model guidance. What is certain, is advisory level snow is likely for the Alleghenies (have a Winter Weather Advisory from Friday evening through Saturday evening for yet another 2-4" of snow out there with up to 6" possible on the higher ridges). This area is in a favorable position of the synoptic UL jet (left exit region) which should yield a period of light to moderate snow Friday night. Behind the system, upslope snow showers and gusty winds will continue. Considerably blowing and drifting snow is likely. Elsewhere, confidence is increasing for light snow accumulation (1-2 inches) for most of the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Generally speaking, Nelson County, VA to St Mary`s County, MD has the best potential for 2-3" of snow (or slightly more depending on the northern extent of heavier banding). Winter Weather Advisories likely needed in subsequent shifts to cover this threat.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 VAZ060-065>067-079>083-085-514-516-518-520-100345- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/ Prince Edward-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Brunswick-Dinwiddie- Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Middlesex-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Eastern Henrico-Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen- 231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 4 inches expected, with locally higher amounts of 4 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, eastern, and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 NCZ012-VAZ084-086>090-092-093-099-100-523>525-100345- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/ Northampton-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Accomack-Northampton-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected, with the potential for a light glaze of ice. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations less than one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and southeast Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

zardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 127 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-101830- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 127 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters until 6PM this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Accumulating snow is likely Friday night. A general 1 to 2" is expected across the area, with amounts of 3" possible in southern Maryland.

https://x.com/iembot_lwx/status/1877428147832164418

I could see a WWA coming for E of i81 and S of i66 later this afternoon

LWX calling for 1-2 inches in their morning AFD FXUS61 KLWX 090826 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 326 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cyclonic flow will continue across the area through Thursday. High pressure will build overhead on Friday. An area of low pressure will track to our south Friday night into Saturday. High pressure will build back in for Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upslope snow showers continue this morning along the Alleghenies, and Winter Storm Warnings/Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect until late this morning. Strong NW winds persist as well, and combined with temperatures in the teens and single digits in the mountains (including the Blue Ridge), sub- zero wind chills are expected through the day. Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect until mid-morning for apparent temperatures near 10-15 below zero. To the east of the mountains, dry conditions are expected with sunny skies. Cold temperatures continue despite the sunshine as Arctic high pressure builds in. High temperatures struggle to breach the freezing while wind chills sit in the teens and 20s. Lows tonight fall into the teens with single digit wind chills. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure overhead will slide east Friday while an elongated longwave upper trough digs into the Southeast US. Guidance has been very consistent with taking an associated surface low south of our area and then off the coast of the Carolinas. With this track, the bulk of precipitation associated with this system will also fall to our south. Confidence is increasing for light snow accumulation (1-2 inches) for most of the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Upslope snow could continue along the Alleghenies into Saturday afternoon/evening, totals closer to 2-4 inches. Temperatures remain in the 20s to low 30s across the area, so this will be in addition to any existing snowpack.

06z NAM increased qpf and snow amounts a bit

Good luck guys... hope you get a nice snowfall

Loudoun county changed to closed tomorrow "After further assessment of neighborhood roads and sidewalks this evening after sunset, we have determined that Loudoun County Public Schools will remain closed Thursday, January 9 due to additional freezing and icy conditions."

Hr 54? Sounding says snow at DCA

I'll take some mod to heavy snow in DC metro at 54 at 25 degrees on the NAM lol

Just a few hundred miles different in SLP placement between 00z 48 and 18z 54

Oh I definitely agree it should be done that way, but I don't think Fairfax has a law like that

Seems Prince William got overwhelmed too https://x.com/PWCSNews/status/1877137224891855292

Hello FCPS Staff and Families, As we navigate through another day of cold weather and icy roads, I want to express my deepest appreciation for your patience as we work to reopen our schools to students and staff. I also remain inspired by our outstanding custodial, facilities, transportation, and grounds crews who continue to work around the clock to ensure the safety of our schools and vehicles. I want to provide an update on tomorrow’s school status. The Virginia Department of Transportation has been prioritizing clearing secondary roads, however clearing bus stops and sidewalks has continued to be problematic. Many sidewalks and bus stops (we have 45,000 bus stops!) continue to be covered in snow. With that in mind, we feel that closing all Fairfax County public schools tomorrow, Thursday, January 9, 2025, is the best decision until we can ensure safe travel to and from school. While schools will be closed, school offices and central offices will open to the public at 10 a.m.

Most of N VA besides Loudoun is still closed tomorrow. Reid sent out a message explaining why apparently

@mattie g is pleased with no school tomorrow

Fairfax/Loudoun/Prince William and Fauquier all closed tomorrow

Only if you bring snow now

I'd take the 18z GFS and run

18z RGEM looks a bit better too IMO