yoda

18z GFS is next week pushing 100 on some days

13 total tornadoes now for the June 5th outbreak https://www.weather.gov/lwx/June052024Tornado

Time to get real toasty .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... In the wake of the cold frontal passage, a ridge of high pressure settle over the Great Lakes to northeastern U.S. this weekend. This allows for a dry forecast along with less humidity than previous days. Each day should bring mostly sunny skies with high temperatures that increase through the weekend. Sunday will certainly be the warmer day of the two as surface winds shift back to southerly. This eventually sets the stages for a hot work week ahead. A building subtropical ridge aloft gradually parks over the eastern U.S. during the early to middle portions of the week. Depending on the global ensemble, some show mid-level heights around 2 standard deviations above average. This sprawling 594-dm ridge will really begin to crank up the heat with widespread mid to upper 90s expected. Some of the more upper echilon solutions carry temperatures to just over 100 degrees. Given dew points ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s, heat indices should easily reach and exceed the century mark most afternoons. If this all holds, heat-related products will likely be necessary ahead of this expected heat wave. While not explicitly shown in the forecast package, there should be some instability forced convection. However, this will be largely dependent on the position of the upper ridge as well as any capping that becomes evident in thermodynamic profiles. This hot and steamy air mass could persist through the entire work week if the ensemble means are taken at face value. The Climate Prediction Center agrees with this notion with a moderate risk for excessive heat in the June 19-21 period.

LWX AFD seems to suggest decent parameters are in place Model guidance have begun to show an increasing signal for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening. This is all in response to a cold front set to slide through the region during the near peak in the diurnal heating cycle. While just outside the realm of the convective-allowing model world, coarser-scale models do show an envelope of ample buoyancy in the pre-frontal environment. Forecast vertical shear values between 35-45 knots would be more than enough to support organized convection. Damaging winds would be the primary threat for any more potent storm or along an eastward propagating squall line. This activity should all exit into the Eastern Shore by late Friday night. In the wake, prevailing northwesterly flow will gradually usher in some drier air from central Canada. However, temperatures do stay slightly above average with widespread 60s expected (50s over the mountains).

Huh, didn't expect to read this in the morning AFD from LWX re Friday LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will slide southeast across the region Friday into Friday night. Warmth and humidity will be increasing ahead of it to help to fuel any showers and thunderstorms that develop ahead of and along the cold front. At this time it is too early to tell if thunderstorms will be typical for June or if they will pack a punch with damaging winds, hail or tornadoes. Expected high temperatures will reach the lower to perhaps middle 90s with slightly cooler temperatures in the western mountains.

Still looks like mid 80s, just less humid

90s coming next week so we enjoy while we can

Note - long post Public Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 943 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...NWS Damage Survey for 06/05/24 Tornado Event... .Overview...On the afternoon and evening of Wednesday June 5th, a warm front slowly lifted northeast across the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia into northern Virginia as well as central and northeastern Maryland. At the same time, low pressure tracked along the warm front causing severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to develop. At this time, the National Weather Service is confirming seven tornadoes in this report. Information is still being collected which could result in additional confirmations in the days ahead. .Inwood WV Tornado... Rating: EF-0 Estimated Peak Wind: 75 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.85 miles Path Width /maximum/: 65 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: June 05 2024 Start Time: 4:04 PM EDT Start Location: 2 SSE Inwood / Berkeley County / WV Start Lat/Lon: 39.3375 / -78.0330 End Date: June 05 2024 End Time: 4:08 PM EDT End Location: 1 SE Inwood / Berkeley County / WV End Lat/Lon: 39.3506 / -78.0298 Staff from the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office conducted a ground survey of storm damage in Inwood WV that occurred on Wednesday afternoon, June 5, 2024. NWS Doppler Radar in Sterling, Virginia showed a rotating severe thunderstorm that developed a tornado. The tornado touched down south/southeast of Inwood in a field where tall grass could be seen disturbed in a rotating pattern. The tornado proceeded to move north across a cow pasture where a line of trees contained tree damage with large branches broken off. The tornado then tracked north across the field, where additional tree damage and shingle damage occurred along Emery Lane. The tornado continued north towards Lucy Drive where gutter damage and additional tree damage occurred. The tornado then crossed Lucy Drive where large tree branched were broken off. It is believed that the tornado lifted before reaching Middleway Pike as no further damage was observed past that point. The National Weather Service would like to thank the citizens of Inwood for their help and support in conducting this survey, and providing storm damage reports to the National Weather Service. .Leesburg VA Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 95 mph Path Length /statute/: 1.0 miles Path Width /maximum/: 125 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: June 05 2024 Start Time: 6:42 PM EDT Start Location: 3 N Leesburg / Loudoun County / VA Start Lat/Lon: 39.1655 / -77.5648 End Date: June 05 2024 End Time: 6:43 PM EDT End Location: 4 NNE Leesburg / Loudoun County / VA End Lat/Lon: 39.1767 / -77.5516 Staff from the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office conducted a ground survey of storm damage that occurred north of Leesburg on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. NWS Doppler Weather Radar in Sterling, Virginia showed a rotating severe thunderstorm that developed a tornado. Radar also showed a tornado damage signature due to lofted debris from the tornado as it was occurring. The tornado touched down southwest of Garriland Drive, north of Leesburg, in a wooded area where broken trees could be seen. The tornado proceeded North/northeast across Garriland Drive, south of the intersection of Garriland Drive and Turning Leaf Lane, where several trees were uprooted in different directions and minor vinyl damage and window damage could be seen. The tornado then crossed over Garriland Drive again into a field where tree damage could be seen in the distance. Garriland Drive turns north at this point where the tornado crossed it at London Council Lane. Near London Council Lane, a small tree was uprooted and small branches had been snapped off. The tornado continued northeast towards Springrun Lane where a small shelter had the plastic roof ripped off. Across Springrun Lane, tree damage could be seen going into the woods, but was not found any further beyond this point. The National Weather Service would like to thank the citizens of Leesburg for their help and support in conducting this survey, and providing storm damage reports to the National Weather Service. .Central Montgomery County MD Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 105 mph Path Length /statute/: 12.0 miles Path Width /maximum/: 125 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 5 Start Date: June 05 2024 Start Time: 7:14 PM EDT Start Location: Poolesville Start Lat/Lon: 39.1302/-77.3852 End Date: June 05 2024 End Time: 7:42 PM EDT End Location: Gaithersburg End Lat/Lon: 39.1391/-77.1854 National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office staff conducted a ground survey of storm damage that occurred in central Montgomery County MD on the evening of Wednesday, June 5, 2024. A mini-supercell thunderstorm formed southeast of the first tornado that impacted Leesburg, VA, west of Poolesville, MD. Videos of funnel clouds near John Poole Middle School were provided by weather spotters. The first damage surveyed was at Tudor Farm along Whites Ferry Road (MD-107). About 2 dozen pine trees with trunk diameter exceeding two feet were snapped or uprooted at this location, laying in various directions. Media reported collapse of doors to a barn on the property. From this location, the tornado lifted before dropping again in the vicinity of the 16000 block of Darnestown Road (MD-28). Here, about a dozen softwood trees were snapped and uprooted, falling in differing directions. These downed trees caused the closure of Darnestown Road for a period of time overnight. The tornado continued on the ground for about 0.5 miles, where additional damage was observed along and near White Ground Road. Here, many pine trees were snapped, with one pine tree debarked of about half of its bark on its remaining trunk. The storm proceeded east across Seneca Creek State Park. Staff at the Washington Suburban Sanitary Commissions (WSSC) Seneca Water Resource Recovery Facility witnessed the tornado moving west-to-east directly adjacent to the south of their facility where power lines leading to the facility were snapped causing the facility to switch to backup power. After its trek south of the facility, it produced large broken branches that fell onto Great Seneca Highway (MD-119), partially blocking the roadway. The storm continued east and entered the City of Gaithersburg. The first damage surveyed was along Desellum Avenue north of Gaithersburg High School. Here, pine trees were snapped, with large limbs downed. A pair softwood trees, approximately 30 yards apart, were snapped and fell directly towards each other, evidence of a tornado. The storm proceeded towards Old Town Gaithersburg, depositing a large limb on top of St. Martin of Tours Church at the intersection of South Summit Avenue and South Frederick Avenue (MD-355). The housing development directly east of the Gaithersburg City Hall was particularly hard-hit, with seven houses being condemned from trees and branches falling onto them. One large oak tree with a trunk of about three feet was uprooted, and fell into a house on Dogwood Drive, where five occupants were injured and transported to the hospital. Several other trees were uprooted including one in the 200 block of Rolling Road, along with numerous large branches downed. One resident interviewed said they heard the Tornado Warning on their phone about three minutes before damage occurred near them. Once notified, their family took action to go to the basement of their home to remain safe. This was the last area of concentrated damage in Montgomery County; it should be noted there may have been additional sporadic damage east of the City of Gaithersburg as the storm continued its eastern heading towards Columbia, MD, where it produced additional damage. The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office acknowledges the assistance of the Montgomery County Office of Emergency management and Homeland Security, Montgomery County Department of Health and Human Services, WSSC Water, and the City of Gaithersburg in helping conduct and provide information to this storm survey. .Columbia MD Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 95 mph Path Length /statute/: 1.0 miles Path Width /maximum/: 75 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: June 05 2024 Start Time: 8:31 PM EDT Start Location: Columbia Start Lat/Lon: 39.2150/-76.8220 End Date: June 05 2024 End Time: 8:33 PM EDT End Location: Columbia End Lat/Lon: 39.2154/-76.8049 National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office staff conducted a ground survey of storm damage that occurred in the Long Reach village of Columbia, MD, on the evening of Wednesday, June 5, 2024. Damage was reported in Columbia, MD, in Long Reach village at Phelps Luck Drive, along High Tor Hill, and the 5600 block of Waterloo Road. First report of damage was at Phelps Luck Drive. A townhouse development near the intersection of High Tor Hill and Tamar Drive experienced concentrated tornadic damage. Here, approximately two dozen trees were snapped or uprooted, falling in various directions. About a dozen cars parked in the townhouse community parking lot were damaged by trees or large limbs falling onto them. Roofing fascia was peeled off of one townhome. Damage was more intermittent but present heading north toward the 5600 block of High Tor Hill. Finally, tree damage was also reported at the 5600 block of Waterloo Road. The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office acknowledges the assistance of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management in helping conduct and provide information contained within this storm. .Southern Baltimore County MD Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind:105 MPH Path Length /statute/: 2.4 Miles Path Width /maximum/: 175 Yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: June 05 2024 Start Time: 8:45 PM EDT Start Location: Arbutus / Baltimore County Maryland/ MD Start Lat/Lon: 39.23 / -76.71 End Date: June 05 2024 End Time: 8:52 PM EDT End Location: Halethorpe / Baltimore County / MD End Lat/Lon: 39.25 / -76.67 National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office staff conducted a survey of storm damage that occurred in southern Baltimore County on Wednesday, June 05, 2024. NWS Doppler Weather Radar in Sterling, Virginia showed a rotating thunderstorm that developed a tornado based on this survey. Weather spotters and residents reported a tornado touchdown in the vicinity of the I-95 and I-195 interchange around 8:45 PM EDT. This was confirmed with ground reports of several large tree trunks twisted and snapped in the vicinity of Riverchase Apartments along Selford Road and Deer Run Court. The tornado continued east northeast along a narrow path toward Friendship Road and Francis Ave. Multiple trees and wires were down along this route in a confluent pattern. The most notable was a large oak tree snapped midway up the trunk. The tree ended up laying in the north-northeast direction onto two cars and a house nearby. An additional large oak tree and its root ball were laying 500 feet nearby closing off Friendship Road. Beyond this point, the tornado continued east northeast between Francis Avenue and Ingate Terrace. Additional large trees were sheared off along with large root balls toppled. Numerous power and phone lines were down as well with BGE and Verizon crews assessing and repairing the damage. Similar damage was observed as the tornado moved east southeast toward Elm and Oakland Road. Several large trees were snapped midway along Elm Road, Huntsmoor Road, Oakland Road, and Ashbourne Road. Wires were down as well with one power pole twisted at its base at the intersection of Oakland Road and Elm Rd. Beyond this point the path widened a bit with two medium spruce trees down along Oregon Avenue and several large branches along Carville Avenue. The tornado proceeded to lift and cycle as it crossed US-1 at I-95 and Potomac Avenue around 7:48 PM. The storm continued 1.4 miles east northeast toward Halethorpe, MD where an additional touchdown was noted around 8:50 PM EDT. This was confirmed with several damage reports in the vicinity of the 3600 block of Commerce Drive and Washington Boulevard and Lansdowne Road. Multiple trees were snapped along a narrow path from the Home Depot over toward Alside Building Materials and Amazon HQ. The most notable damage was along Robert A Young Way between Alside Products and Amazon HQ. Four heavy overhead doors were blown out of the distribution warehouse along with pieces of the awning and roofing material removed from the Alside building. Several trees were also sheared at the canopy top within this same area. Additional large trees were taken down behind the LA- Fitness and Store-it storage facility along Washington Boulevard. The damage was a bit broader in this area and most likely the end point to where the tornado finally lifted. Radar indicated the circulation clearing this point around 8:52 PM EDT. The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office would like to thank the Baltimore County Office of Emergency Management for providing helpful information and assisting in the survey today. .Middle River MD Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 105 MPH Path Length /statute/: 0.2 Miles Path Width /maximum/: 110 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: June 05 2024 Start Time: 8:57 PM EDT Start Location: Middle River Start Lat/Lon: 39.34 -76.40 End Date: June 05 2024 End Time: 8:58 PM EDT End Location: Middle River End Lat/Lon: 39.34 -76.40 National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office staff conducted a ground survey of storm damage that occurred in southeast Baltimore County on Wednesday, June 05, 2024. NWS Doppler Weather Radar in Sterling, Virginia showed a rotating thunderstorm that developed a tornado based on the survey. The circulation developed just to the south of Essex, MD at 8:43 PM EDT before racing north and strengthening toward Martin State Airport around 8:57pm. This is where a notable debris signature started to show up on radar as the storm pushed north-northeast. This signature was confirmed with ground reports of multiple mobile homes damaged in the Williams Estates area as the strongest winds pushed through. The damage path was fairly narrow and short lived. Most of the damage included the removal of underpinning from several single and double wide mobile homes in the Williams Estates community. This included several mobile homes along Wagon Train Road and Roundup Road as well as Cowhide Circle. Carports, sheds, and even a trampoline were tossed around the neighborhood as well. Several trees were also snapped and turned in several different directions along Roundup Road and Cowhide Circle. The most notable damage was between Dahlia Lane and Roundup Road. This where the height of the circulation looks to take place right around 8:58 PM EDT. Within this area there were two double wide mobile homes with significant damage. One of the mobile homes had underpinning removed from two sides of the building with the windows completely blown out and a shed tossed 50 yards in the opposite direction from its foundation. The resident who owns this home had roughly 30 seconds of video showing the tornado as it passed through. He recalled a loud boom which was most likely the shed being tossed from the foundation to the other side of the residence. Pieces of the shed and other debris were impinged into the side of the mobile home as well. The neighboring double wide mobile home was also missing a majority of its underpinning along with several shingles and shingle material off the roof of the structure. Strapping on both units appeared to be secured with no other distinct structural damage to be observed. Beyond this point, the tornado continued toward Roundup Road and Cowhide Circle where the path widened. Much of the same damage was noted, but to a lesser extent with underpinning and shingles removed from several mobile homes in the area. The tornado continued toward the back of Cowhide Circle where it eventually lifted. No additional damage was found beyond this point nor any injuries reported. The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office would like to thank the Baltimore County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management for providing helpful information and assisting in the survey today. .Eldersburg MD Tornado... Rating: EF-0 Estimated Peak Wind: 85 mph Path Length /statute/: 4.4 miles Path Width /maximum/: 100 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: June 05, 2024 Start Time: 7:59 PM EDT Start Location: 2 NNW of Eldersburg / Carroll County / MD Start Lat/Lon: 39.4259 / -76.9717 End Date: June 05, 2024 End Time: 8:13 PM EDT End Location: 1 NE of Gamber / Carroll County / MD End Lat/Lon: 39.4726 / -76.9151 On the evening of Wednesday, June 5, 2024, an EF-0 tornado touched down 2 miles north-northwest of Eldersburg, Maryland. The National Weather Service conducted a damage survey and noted an initial area of tree damage near the intersection of Tanglewood Drive and Covington Court. A rotational damage signature was evident as tree damage was pointed in opposite directions. The tornadic storm continued its track toward the northeast with additional damage observed along Bartholow Road near Sarah Drive. This included multiple large trees which were uprooted, one of which fell onto a house. Further damage was noted up the road just north of the intersection of Bartholow Road and Cherry Tree Lane. Dozens of trees had large sections and branches snapped off and topped. Observed tree damage was spread out into multiple directions. Several minutes later, the tornado passed over Morgan Run before causing additional damage to the Lakeland Heights area. A home was seen with siding and shingle damage near Sun Berry Court and Lake Forest Court. Multiple large broken tree branches were noted behind the home. A few trees were damaged along Legacy Drive. The damage signature to the northeast became more intermittent in nature as the tornado began to weaken. By 8:13 PM EDT, the final damage point was noted about 1 mile northeast of Gamber MD. Along Pin Oak Drive, a mid-sized tree was uprooted with multiple downed tree branches. Thereafter, the circulation dissipated while approaching MD State Route 140. No damage was noted along Route 140. A circulation evident on NWS Doppler weather radar corroborated this track as well. The National Weather Service would like to thank the Carroll County Emergency Management Division for their assistance with this damage survey. && EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0.........65 to 85 mph EF1.........86 to 110 mph EF2.........111 to 135 mph EF3.........136 to 165 mph EF4.........166 to 200 mph EF5.........>200 mph NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS Storm Data. $$

12z Euro gets quite ridgy next weekend with 590DM+ h5 heights. Pivotal shows near 90 on Friday and mid 90s on Saturday

I'm not seeing development behind what's in central Maryland right now

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Southern half of New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Eastern and Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop through the afternoon into several broken bands of strong to severe thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage. This activity will likely push east of the Atlantic Seaboard by mid to late evening with the severe risk diminishing from west to east across the Watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of Trenton NJ to 35 miles east southeast of South Hill VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Looks like maybe something just south of Urbana? ETA: and LWX just canceled the warning

Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming soon per MCD - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1181.html Mesoscale Discussion 1181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Virginia into eastern Maryland...far southern New Jersey...Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 061745Z - 061915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the afternoon, as thunderstorms become more widespread. 50-65 mph gusts are the main threat, and are expected to become abundant enough to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance within the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A small mid-level impulse embedded within modest westerlies aloft is traversing the central Appalachians, and is poised to approach the Atlantic Coastline this afternoon. As this occurs, thunderstorms should continue to increase in both coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Strong surface heating has supported low-level lapse rates to reach 7 C/km (per 17Z mesoanalysis), and additional heating should further boost these lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. This will promote efficient evaporative cooling and subsequent 50-65 mph gust potential with any strong storm that can become sustained. A WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours to address the damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

932 NOUS41 KLWX 061148 PNSLWX DCZ001-MDZ001-003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501>508-VAZ025>031- 036>040-050-051-053>057-501>508-526-527-WVZ050>053-055-501>506- 070000- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 748 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...Several Damage Surveys Planned for Today... In response to the thunderstorms yesterday evening, several surveys are planned for today to assess storm damage. Teams are being sent out the following counties...In Virginia...Loudoun ...In Maryland...Frederick, Montgomery, Howard, Baltimore and Baltimore City and Carroll...In West Virginia...Berkeley and Jefferson. $$ CJL

Wow "Stoddard said according to early estimates, 15 tornadoes touched down across the state of Maryland causing several million dollars in damage. He said authorities would have a more complete estimate later Thursday. " https://www.wusa9.com/article/weather/severe-weather/tornado-warnings-issued-in-multiple-counties-across-maryland-montgomery-frederick-loudon/65-47ffde20-f23b-433e-b539-556a12e76eb6

06z NAM Nest and 07z HRRR are kind of boring for most of the region except maybe south and east of DC

Its rain contaminated, but 06z NAM has a TOR sounding near KDCA at 00z from what looks like a single supercell moving through DC metro on sim radar. Not much else going on across the region besides some showers/storms south and east of DC metro by 21z

Its MRGL on the early new day 1 (0600z) but LWX seems to agree with you in their morning disco .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front currently over the OH valley will move across our area today, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. The early morning showers and few embedded storms in WV and western PA will move into the Alleghenies by sunrise. Not expecting any strong storms, though some locally heavy rainfall is possible. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is going to focus along and east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon, though a few strong storms could also develop in the Central Shenandoah Valley. Morning cloud cover is expected to quickly dissipate, allowing for good diurnal heating and destabilization to take place. Temps this afternoon reach the mid to upper 80s, with dew points still in the lower 70s. The atmosphere remains very moist as PWATs hover around 2.0" through the afternoon. Most of the high res models indicate a broken line of thunderstorms developing along the front as it reaches I-81, but especially as it moves east of the Blue Ridge where the better instability will be. Deep layer shear around 20-30 knots should be enough to allow some organized strong to severe convection to get going. SPC currently has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms, though that could be upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas east of the Blue Ridge later this morning. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat from storms. Faster storm motion should prevent any significant flooding issues from occurring, though there will be quick downpours in the stronger storms. The front and line of storms push east of I-95 by sunset, then any lingering showers behind the front dissipate by late evening. Dry conditions overnight as lows settle in the mid to upper 50s along/west of I-81 and low to mid 60s to the east.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 744 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 MDC031-060015- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-240606T0015Z/ Montgomery MD- 744 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY... At 743 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Gaithersburg, moving east at 20 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Olney, Aspen Hill, and Redland around 750 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Derwood, Spencerville, Brookeville, Washington Grove, Sandy Spring, Ednor, Ashton, Brinklow, Burtonsville, and Cloverly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3921 7701 3919 7701 3917 7700 3916 7697 3915 7697 3914 7695 3913 7696 3913 7694 3912 7693 3911 7721 3915 7721 3924 7705 TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 261DEG 17KT 3914 7719 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1019 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather today through Thursday as a series of fronts cross the region. Mostly dry conditions on Friday in the wake of the cold front. A slow moving upper trough approaches the area from the Great Lakes this weekend leading to more unsettled conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MORNING UPDATE: Muggy conditions continue this morning, with much of the area exceeding 70 degree dew points. Flow has turned out of the south to south-southeast ahead of an approaching weather system that will impact the region later today. Showers are ongoing across portions of the region, and will likely continue to increase in coverage in the next few hours. Instability is already decent, even amidst the abundant cloudcvoer, as CAPE values are in the 1000-1500 J/kg range already. So, we should be on track with the early morning forecast, which is below.

12z NAM though has a pretty decent curved hodo in the DC metro at 00z tonight... so could have a weak spinny