yoda

06z GEFS at 90 h5 looks much better on TT IMO compared to 00z at 96

Yup all day every day

Lol... I'll go with @CAPE

06z RGEM kicks all the energy out at 84 h5

Morning AFD from LWX regarding the potential event By Friday, a deep trough will continue to move further east. Confidence has continued to increase on the negative tilt nature of this trough over the last few runs as it reaches the east coast. The 18/00z runs of the GEFS has backed off the center of low pressure being closer to the coast whereas the EPS/NBM are trending a bit more north-west. A more westward trend could bring a more widespread significant snowfall for portions of the area. For now, there still seems to be some discontinuity in the guidance as to the position of the low which will greatly impacts the snow totals that are received within the Mid-Atlantic region. This system is not a slam dunk by any means with a lack of blocking in the northern Atlantic. Nonetheless, the overall pattern for the event seems to be honing in on a snowy solution for much of the area with areas closer to the I-95 corridor having the higher totals for now, given where the best forcing/moisture availability resides. Do expect the Alleghenies to receive a fairly consistent snowfall for the event due to upsloping. Given the uncertainties with this event, have kept PoPs through Saturday evening but with a potentially fast moving track on pace, we may see conditions begin to dramatically improve during the day on Saturday. Other story will be the winds with this system with a tight gradient between the strong Arctic high pressure that will bring frigid cold temperatures Thursday and as it departs and the upper trough begins to build into the area. Coupled with these winds will be frigid cold temperatures, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Wind chill values may become more widespread in the negatives, even east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Wind Chill Watches/Warnings/Advisories may be needed.

h/t @ORH_wxman

Another small shift west or slightly earlier full phase...

We wouldn't get as much snow as further N and E... but still blizzard conditions would be possible i95 corridor and east 105 to 114

50 to 60 kts at 925mb at 108 and 114 hours is nothing to sneeze at either

00z EPS now just got VERY interesting

I'm guessing either if the SLP was like 50 miles more west we'd do alot better? Or if the full phase was like 6 hours earlier then we'd really be crushed?

Is that what I think I see at 90? Do I see a stronger phase?

Definitely going to be west of 12z... thats for sure looking at 72 h5

Ukie was a nudge in the right direction for snow... especially DC south actually

This board wouldn't survive a day

Cool beans. Have a great rest of the week

Since when?

00z GEFS is better at h5 at 96 compared to 18z at 102

I just saw the CMC early and posted it in here for you guys. Not sure why Ji posted what he did about it

Stay in your lane Huh?

00z CMC did go east by a good amount, but does hit SNE nicely