yoda

Mid 30s is not pretty warm lol

I like the look through 33 lol

Seems to me this may be the best NAM yet for us lol

That seems early... before the afternoon that is

low 20s and snowstorm... only 9 days away lol

Blizzard watches do not exist anymore

You also have a coveted WSW up lol

This was the 06z NAM FWIW

Morning AFD from LWX .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... During the day on Friday, the upper trough will continue to sharpen in nature, with the axis of lift from this disturbance pushing further south and east beyond the Allegheny Front. This is when we start to see PoPs increase for the remainder of the area, with some areas maybe starting out as a wintry mix as temperatures briefly struggle to be below freezing during the day on Friday (mainly east of the Blue Ridge Mountains). Closer to sunset, temperatures should drop below freezing throughout and mostly snowfall will be felt from then throughout the remainder of the event. There has not been a dramatic change with the upper trough timing over the last two cycle runs. The other component to this event continues to be a rapidly deepening low pressure system poised to form off the Carolina's coast. With the continued lack of strong northern Atlantic blocking, the low continues to show a more offshore solution. This continues to keep a widespread high accumulating snowfall out of a large portion of the CWA. As mentioned over the last few days, the gradient though for watch/warning/advisory criteria continues to linger across the I-95 corridor. Confidence remains a bit limited due to the volatility in the model guidance. In terms of totals, higher amounts remain located across far southern MD and points further northeast of there. Still seeing a signal for lesser totals across portions of north-central MD where there is less forcing and lift. The reasonable worst case scenario continues to relay the potential west shift in the low that could bring much higher totals further inland. Another item worth mentioning is the potential for some higher banding as seen in some of the higher-res guidance. This may be due to the upper trough dynamics interacting with the offshore low and intensifying moisture availability with already accelerated lift for the event. Will continue to monitor the latest trends in the guidance and create any needed headlines in the near future. Visit weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest winter headlines. With increased pressure gradient in place for the event, confidence in gusty winds is higher than snow amounts/track at this time. Will likely see the potential for dangerously cold wind chills Saturday night and blowing snow Saturday into Saturday evening. Should see conditions improving from west to east late Saturday morning (just east of the mountains) to Saturday evening (I-95 corridor). Upslope snow may continue slightly longer during the day on Saturday for the Allegheny Front. Behind the low, high pressure returns for the area, leaving dry conditions while still remaining cold. &&

06z RGEM paints a 3-4" over DCA

Hmmmm.... AKQ went WSW including i95 corridor URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 330 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 VAZ064-075>078-080>083-085-511-512-514>522-271630- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.220128T2100Z-220129T2100Z/ Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Dinwiddie- Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Middlesex-Western Hanover- Eastern Hanover-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Including the cities of Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Sandy Point, Westmoreland, Colonial Beach, Leedstown, Oak Grove, Potomac Beach, Potomac Mills, Naylors Beach, Downing, Emmerton, Ethel, Farnham, Haynesville, Kennard, Lewisetta, Alfonso, Beanes Corner, Brook Vale, Kilmarnock, Lancaster, Lively, Regina, Reams, Petersburg, Hopewell, Barnetts, Wayside, Roxbury, Bottoms Bridge, Browns Corner, Mountcastle, New Kent Airport, Orapax Farms, Quinton, Talleysville, Grafton, Harmony Village, Church View, Cooper, Healys, Jamaica, Nesting, Ashland, Mechanicsville, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights, Richmond, Sandston, Aylett, King William, West Point, Beazley, Biscoe, Henley Fork, Indian Neck, Newtown, Owenton, Saint Stephens Church, King And Queen Court House, Tappahannock, and Dunnsville 330 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible with locally higher amounts possible toward the Chesapeake Bay. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph, and up to 40 mph along the Chesapeake Bay. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, eastern, north central and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Just caught up from being at work from 6pm till now .. geez what a model war

It was Buck

And look what he became lol

The rain? LWX AFD mentioned that could happen at the start

THANK YOU! I appreciate it

Thank you for that... I will try and find it so I can read up on it

Anyone know the last time PRE and winter weather were discussed in the same sentence? Interesting mention by LWX in their AFD about it @csnavywx @WxUSAF

LWX has a great and awesomesauce disco this afternoon... hats off to them. Well written as well .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ...SLIGHT TO ENHANCED WINTER STORM THREAT AS MAJOR STORM LURKS OFFSHORE... Overview... The evolving large scale weather/jet stream pattern across the U.S. as well as latest model guidance continue to suggest the potential of a major, rapidly deepening area of low pressure moving northward off the East Coast Friday into Saturday. Although the brunt of the storm looks to be headed for New England, the Mid-Atlantic region will be on the western periphery of the rather large system resulting in an increasing likelihood of accumulating snow. Uncertainty remains in the all important details, and users are encouraged to focus on the broader "low-end" and "high-end" potential snowfall amounts at this time range, with the caveat that the situation is still evolving, the storm has yet to form, and continued variability is likely in the "expected" snowfall amounts as finer scale details come into clearer focus over the next couple of days. For the latest forecast details, please visit: www.weather.gov/lwx/winter. Technical summary... A mid-level jet max and weak isentropic lift well ahead of the large scale trough will impinge on the Allegheny Front beginning as early as shortly after sundown Thursday. At least scattered snow shower activity is anticipated as a result Thursday night over favored upslope areas, with a couple of inches possible mainly along western facing ridges through daybreak Friday. This axis of lift will slip slowly southward and eastward during the day Friday while the upper trough sharpens across the TN/OH Valley. The trough will have 3 embedded shortwaves within it: a shortwave pivoting from SE MO to E KY, a southern stream vorticity ribbon arcing back through the ArkLaMiss to TX, and a trailing northern stream shortwave diving into the upper Great Lakes. It appears the trailing vorticity ribbon will become ingested in the main shortwave trough, phasing sufficiently to result in strong surface cyclogenesis in a PVA regime ahead of the trough as it interacts with a baroclinic zone near the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the trailing northern stream shortwave likely also becomes infused into the large trough, aided in part by very transient/weak blocking from the Arctic high retreating off through the Canadian Maritimes. As all of these pieces conjoin, rapidly deepening surface low pressure will track northward off the Eastern Seaboard. The question is exactly how far offshore the low tracks. A consensus of the latest model/ensemble data as well as the background UA pattern suggest a low track from about 150 miles east of the Outer Banks of NC to just outside (SE of) the 40 N/70 W benchmark off the New England coast. With the lack of a more substantial downstream block over the North Atlantic, the low is more likely to track far enough offshore and deepen far enough to the east and north that the heaviest band of snow would setup toward the NJ/New England coast, with the northwestern edge setting up over southern MD and the Eastern Shore. The infamous gradient between lighter and heavier snowfall may end up near the I-95 corridor, and thus bears a very close watch. Otherwise, most of the accumulating snowfall for the majority of the area will come from the upper trough axis itself. Snow may mix with rain at the onset for lower elevations east of I-81 and south of I-70 Friday afternoon due to boundary layer temperatures progged into the mid to upper 30s. Upslope enhancement over the higher terrain will likely result in locally higher amounts over the Alleghenies. One thing to note, despite an overall relatively lighter expected snowfall across the majority of the area, the overall pattern somewhat resembles that of a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event), where moisture from an intense, distant (offshore) low interacts with a mid- level frontal zone. This may result in a band of enhanced snowfall as hinted at in some runs of higher resolution guidance, but certainty on its magnitude and placement is low at this time. Of greater certainty is increasing winds and plunging temperatures as the low lifts out toward the Northeast heading into Saturday. Dangerously cold wind chills are likely by Saturday evening, and blowing snow is possible as winds increase. Snow may linger in the I-95 corridor through Saturday morning depending on the evolution of the offshore low, but dry conditions should return areawide east of the Allegheny Front by nightfall.

You and I have known each other for years lol... even though we haven't talked much. I think I used to Aol IM you when severe threats came up lol Or FB message you lol

I'll take my 2 to 3 inches for now

Is this good or bad for us?

Yup... I'm focused on that.

I'm trying to make us happy darn it! Euro, you better hold lol