yoda

For Thursday into Friday time period for possible strong to severe from morning LWX AFD. .. yikes at the 100 kts A continued southerly advection of warm and moist air will lead to PWs increasing up into the 1.35 to 1.50 range which is 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal. The frontal passage will be driven by a strong upper level trough that will approach from the plains states. Models aren`t agreeing on the strength and positioning of this trough but all models agree that a strong wind field will be in place with the frontal passage. Models are forecasting 60 knots in the 850 to 925 layer with some models having close to 100 knots aloft. Increasing temperatures and moisture will likely lead to some marginal CAPE values up to 200 to 300 j/kg. Considering that shear values will likely be well above 60 to 70 knots with this frontal passage, even a few hundreds of CAPE could lead to a strong to severe thunderstorm threat. I believe the biggest hazard for our region Thursday into Friday will be flooding as this system will have a lot of moisture associated with it along with increasingly neutral to nearly negatively tilted trough. This suggests that the frontal zone will intensify over our region leading to an enhancement in precipitation production. Somewhere in our region has the potential to see banding precip amounts above 2 inches but there remains a lot of uncertainty at this time. I could also see the threat for wind advisory level winds but there remains a lot of uncertainty at this time range. High temps as the front pass through the region will likely warm up into the 60s once again with potential for a strong background wind field. The impacts from this system should be focused in the Thursday to Friday period.

We got another one

The answer is nope, never

70 to 80 kts at 850mb

Too bad no CAPE... that's a decent sounding at 132 on the 12z GFS

12z RGEM and 15z RAP look good to me... 12z ggem isn't bad either

Lol widespread 3 to 6 ftw

Caps always suck

Thanks Ji

I'd bet the 06z NAM must have been the same then

Actually looks better than 00z Euro I believe

Morning AFD from LWX SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ...Uncertainty plagues potential snow threat this weekend... After a couple of very mild days in the 50s to perhaps 60s, an Arctic front will cross the region late Saturday. An initial wind shift is expected to cause a change in direction from south to west during the morning, but the brunt of colder air is unlikely to arrive until very late at night east of the mountains. Cold air chasing precipitation behind a front is not normally an ideal setup for heavy snow east of the Appalachians. This is in part due to the drying effects of downsloping, not to mention compressional warming effects of downsloping that tend to delay temperatures dropping east of the higher terrain. Without a strong frontal wave nearby to hold in moisture, prospects for significant snow would be low. However, strong lift in the mid levels near the ideal snow growth zone, and an area of low pressure developing near the Carolina coast could act in tandem to produce a period of accumulating snow late Saturday night into Sunday. Questions remain regarding the strength of the offshore low. Its strength will depend on how the northern and southern branches of the jet stream interact, and just how quickly temperatures drop. A large ridge over the western U.S. is in a favorable position for downstream troughing and low pressure near the East Coast, with some ridging evident near Greenland; the orientation of the latter is not quite in the most ideal spot to hold or "block" a storm`s path keeping it close to the Mid-Atlantic coast. That being said, energy in both branches of the jet stream is rather potent, and if they interact or phase quickly enough, a stronger storm closer to the coast is still possible. This scenario is most evident in some of the GEPS (Canadian Ensemble/CMCE) guidance from the 00z suite, with the GEFS still bullish but somewhat less than its 12z cycle, and the EPS (Euro Ensemble/ECE) flatter, weaker, and drier. A consensus approach (i.e. NBM) to all of the above smooths out the swings from cycle to cycle and differences between individual model camps, resulting in a 40-50% chance of measurable snow across much of the area east of the mountains late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow may mix with rain, especially at the onset. Most likely snowfall amounts are currently projected at less than 2 inches for most areas, but both a low end scenario of little to no snow /and/ a high end scenario of several inches are still on the table. Potential impacts from this system may linger into Sunday. More on that follows in the Long Term section below. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... To conclude the upcoming weekend, the forecast remains unresolved regarding the threat for wintry precipitation as alluded to above. 00Z guidance and their ensembles paint a mixed picture of how much, if any, snow will occur with the weekend system. The 00Z GFS/GEFS mean have been the most bullish on the snowfall potential given a more favorably placed surface wave and associated mid/upper forcing. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF and its ensemble mean are flatter with little to nothing over the region. Sandwiched in between would be the CMC solution. With forecast highs in the upper 30s, some locations along the I-95 corridor may see rain mixing in with any snowflakes. Given the inherent model spread, much can change in the next 24 to 48 hours, so continue to check back on the latest forecast at weather.gov/lwx/winter.

Just needs to come north 58 miles Have the 06z GFS and 06z NAM meet in the middle

Alrighty then 06z GFS

Looks at 06z RGEM - "Take that!" Looks at 06z NAM - "OBJECTION!"

WWA up for the BR mountains URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 205 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 VAZ507-508-080100- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0014.220207T1905Z-220208T0100Z/ Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 205 PM EST Mon Feb 7 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Light wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Total snow and sleet accumulation a coating to an inch. A glaze of ice accumulation from freezing rain. * WHERE...Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

I mean I'm not expecting anything... but still would be cool to get an hour or two of wet snow falling

What do you do during the summer then?

weak front with developing SLP riding it? I mean SLP forms down in NW NC and then runs NE... gets to 995mb just east of us and 980s into NE

V-Day idea is still there... though is a rain to snow idea now on the 12z GFS and better for the crew west of i95 corridor

I was half expecting some coastal low lol... but 3-6 would be lovely

@mattie g's profile image is basically what I am doing the next 10 days

Barring some shift in guidance... I think its blinds closed for snow for the next 7-10 days or so.