Afternoon AFD from LWX hints at maybe a non zero tor threat
The aforementioned area of low pressure lifts and occludes into
southeastern Ontario, with a cold front draped southward through
the southeastern CONUS. The cold front is expected to traverse
the region during the afternoon and evening hours. High
temperatures reaching the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s should provide plenty of instability for
thunderstorms to develop. This, paired with at least 30-40 kts
of deep-layer shear, could bring some severe thunderstorms to
the region during this time. Gusty winds would be the primary
threat with these storms. Will have to watch the areas around
the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River for any small variations in
surface winds however, as this may provide just enough
localized shear to produce a brief spin-up. This is a low-
probability scenario, but something worth mentioning.