yoda

Good call

Afternoon day 2 from SPC has SLGT risk from i66 corridor and north (all of MD except for S MD) for damaging winds

@weatherwiz ENH on new Day 2

That'd be quite impressive

And it's over Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data indicate that the well-defined low pressure area located about 40 miles southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, is producing only minimal shower and thunderstorm activity at this time. The low is likely to move inland during the next several hours, and the chances of the system becoming a tropical depression are decreasing. However, interests along the coasts of Georgia and northeastern Florida should continue to monitor the progress of the system until it moves inland. For more information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent

00z GFS says DCA reaches 100 on Saturday

I'm assuming @weatherwizis drooling over some of the 00z NAM soundings for Sunday in Massachusetts at 18z and 21z

Its at the end of its run, but 00z NAM sim radar looks nice from 21z SUN to 03z MON across the region

Saturday night will be warmer still, with overnight lows in the mid-upper 70s to the east of the Blue Ridge, with lower 80s even possible in DC and Baltimore. This level of heat overnight, when the daytime temperatures are near 100, is especially dangerous because there will be very little relief. Current forecast would only have heat indices below 90 between midnight and 8 AM Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The conclusion of this weekend will mark a temporary end to the lengthy period of above average temperatures. On Sunday, 850-mb temperatures rise to around 21-23C which dry adiabatically mixed to the surface would support some century degree readings. Consequently, the forecast does call for some spots reaching 100 degrees. This is accompanied increasing humidity levels as dew points rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. The resultant heat indices range from 100 to 107 degrees across the forecast area. If this were to be maintained, Heat Advisories may be needed for much of the region. An additional threat will be some strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon to evening hours. After over a week of continued heating of the surface, instability levels should be maximized as mixed-layer CAPE values reach 2,500 to 3,000 J/kg. The guidance vary in convective coverage which suggests there could be some capping issues. After around 9 to 10 days without a cold frontal passage, the guidance does bring a boundary through during the second half of Monday. This would bring an additional threat for some severe convection, especially for those east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The added clouds and thunderstorm activity does carry Monday`s high temperatures back down into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Through Tuesday, this boundary eventually settles off to the south across the coastal Carolinas. Another round of hot temperatures ensue toward mid-week as highs rise into the mid/upper 90s again. Heat indices begin to approach advisory levels again. Another cold front races across the local area by Thursday which helps usher temperatures down. This would again come with another risk of severe thunderstorms.

LWX mentions severe weather quite a few times in its afternoon disco today

I am guessing we could see EHW's maybe in the metros for Sunday? Zones have HX near 110 Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 133 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 DCZ001-202100- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 133 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. South winds around 5 mph. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 70. South winds around 5 mph. .FRIDAY...Sunny, hot with highs in the mid 90s. South winds around 5 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds around 5 mph. .SATURDAY...Sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Hot with highs around 100. Chance of rain 30 percent. Heat index values up to 110. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Hot with highs in the upper 90s.

Wagons north for damaging wind though... going to travel?

Highs next week are back in the upper 90s by Wednesday per LWX... but SPC made it sound like a bunch of severe MCS may start appearing next week too in the Northern Plains and moving east or SE in their Day 4-8 disco

Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1036 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 DCZ001-191800- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 1036 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .REST OF TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. .TONIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows around 70. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Sunny, hot with highs in the upper 90s. South winds around 5 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. .SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot with highs around 100. Chance of rain 30 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 70. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.

100 has entered the zones for Saturday at DCA Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1033 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 DCZ001-171800- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 1033 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .REST OF TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. South winds around 10 mph. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows around 70. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .JUNETEENTH...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. .THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. .SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Hot with highs around 100. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Geez, sorry Orioles fans https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/06/kyle-bradish-to-undergo-testing-on-sore-elbow.html

LWX radar showing 70-80 dBZ pixels

TOR possible tag added in new STW BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 549 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 548 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of Paw Paw, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Capon Bridge, Slanesville, Bloomery, and Timber Ridge. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather including large hail, straight line winds and possibly a tornado. Move quickly to a safe shelter such as an interior room, a bathroom, closet or basement. && LAT...LON 3951 7846 3949 7841 3946 7835 3943 7835 3941 7836 3938 7835 3936 7837 3935 7834 3926 7842 3937 7860 3952 7851 TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 302DEG 18KT 3944 7856 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Storm warned for ping pong ball sized hail and 60mph winds. Also made a hard right turn. Was moving east... Now SE Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 542 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 WVC027-142200- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-240614T2200Z/ Hampshire WV- 542 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL HAMPSHIRE COUNTY... At 541 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of Fort Ashby, or 9 miles southwest of Paw Paw, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Springfield, Green Spring, Levels, Higginsville, Points, and Three Churches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

DCA 102 IAD 101 BWI 101 RIC 102

Meanwhile, winter storm watches have been hoisted in Montana... granted it's for the mountains but still

Probably top 5? I mean it's behind Isabel and April 2011 at least in the region April 2011 had 19 - https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_2011042728

Radar says otherwise