Jump to content

yoda

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    62,534

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 Satellite images and earlier satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the central Atlantic now has a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The depression has a partially exposed low-level center with a small area of deep convection to its west. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving just north of west or 280/9 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn to the west-northwest and accelerate on the southern side of a mid-level ridge for the next few days. After that time, the depression is forecast to turn northwestward towards a weakness in the ridge east of the Leeward Islands. The model guidance is fairly well-clustered, and the NHC official forecast lies near the model consensus aids. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening over the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next day or so. Beyond 72 h, global models agree the vertical wind shear should increase significantly and weaken the cyclone. The NHC intensity prediction starts out conservatively and is near lower end of the guidance envelope, most similar to the LGEM model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 10.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 11.3N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 12.0N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 13.1N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 50.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.6N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 20.9N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 23.3N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
  2. yoda
    BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 41.1W ABOUT 1395 MI...2240 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 41.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to increase with a turn toward the northwest during the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to remain east of the northern Leeward Islands through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
  3. yoda
    Morning's AFD from LWX regarding Monday sounds tasty By Monday, a trough digging across the Great Lakes and Midwest will pivot toward the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Height falls and DCVA ahead of the trough, modest diffluence aloft in the right entrance region of a neutral to slight negative tilt upper trough, and low- level convergence along and ahead of an associated surface cold front will likely trigger showers and at least scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The 00Z GFS/CMC/UKMET all show mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km (though note the 00z ECMWF is weaker around 6.5.7 C/km) attendant to a remnant EML plume. These values are noteworthy for this part of the country in late June, perhaps an indication of heightened potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Additionally, 850-500 hPa winds of 30-40 kts with some low-level veering may lend to both low and deep layer shear, which would aid thunderstorm organization. Timing and strength differences remain, especially beyond Monday night regarding just how quickly the upper trough and surface cold front exit the region. Kept PoPs in the forecast during the favorable afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday with the front nearby.
  4. yoda
    Finally some talk of severe starting this weekend into next week from both SPC and LWX
  5. yoda
    Guess I beat @snowman19 to this lol
  6. yoda
    Guess we shall see...
  7. yoda
  8. yoda
    Don't forget that the KLWX radar will be out of service until the end of the month (it's already down to start maintenance)
  9. yoda
    Pretty good day for the region and into AKQ CWA for severe weather reports, SLGT definitely verified
  10. yoda
    Nickel sized hail reported in Clifton, VA
  11. yoda
    Numerous reports of funnel clouds in downtown Norfolk as well 000 NWUS51 KAKQ 162120 LSRAKQ Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Wakefield VA 520 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0515 PM Funnel Cloud 1 S Downtown Norfolk 36.84N 76.29W 06/16/2023 City of Norfolk VA Public
  12. yoda
    Was rainwrapped as well 000 NWUS51 KAKQ 162056 LSRAKQ Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Wakefield VA 456 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0455 PM Tornado 3 ENE Carrollton 36.97N 76.52W 06/16/2023 Isle of Wight VA Public Public reports rain wrapped tornado in Carrolton.
  13. yoda
    Warrenton cell should get a warning soon IMO
  14. yoda
    Centreville storm looks nice and STW
  15. yoda
    Confirmed TOR in SE VA right now BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 456 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Tornado Warning for... The western City of Norfolk in southeastern Virginia... The northern City of Portsmouth in southeastern Virginia... Northeastern Isle of Wight County in southeastern Virginia... The northeastern City of Suffolk in southeastern Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 455 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Crittenden, or near Carrolton, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Crittenden around 500 PM EDT. Churchland around 515 PM EDT. Portsmouth around 520 PM EDT. Old Dominion University and Norfolk NAS around 525 PM EDT. Norfolk and Ghent around 530 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Huntersville, Hobson and Carrollton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Please report severe weather by calling 757-899-2415, posting to the NWS Wakefield Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSWAKEFIELDVA. && LAT...LON 3683 7632 3685 7639 3687 7640 3687 7642 3686 7643 3690 7657 3699 7656 3698 7647 3695 7643 3697 7639 3696 7628 3688 7628 TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 285DEG 22KT 3694 7653 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
  16. yoda
    Ping pong ball sized hail in the new SWS
  17. yoda
    Is its just because close to radar or is the Loudoun cell hooking?
  18. yoda
    ^ 2.50" hail tag on thar cell on Radarscope
  19. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 432 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Stafford County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Orange County in central Virginia... South central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... North central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 432 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles south of Bealeton, or 13 miles east of Culpeper, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Flat Run, Chancellorsville, Ramoth, Lignum, Storck, Holly Corner, Dunavant, Lake Of The Woods, Richardsville, Glendie, Hartwood, Goldvein, Sumerduck and Cookstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
  20. yoda
    New storms with lightning firing back in W MD
  21. yoda
    I don't think so
  22. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1111.html
  23. yoda
    Ping pong ball sized hail with the storm now per trained spotters
  24. yoda
    Seeing some hooking tendency on the cell and some purple showing up on Radarscope
  25. yoda
    Looks right it made a SE turn from its prior east movement
×
×
  • Create New...