yoda

06z GFS still nice.. 2-4/3-5

Snow may be heavy at times has been put in the zones... including DC metro

Morning AFD from LWX says WWA's may be coming soon for metros .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper-level trough and its associated strong cold front will approach the Appalachians through this evening. The southern stream system will begin to phase with the northern stream system, causing the trough to become more neutrally tilted while surface low pressure develops and strengthens along the front. Much of this evening may turn out dry, but rain will quickly overspread late tonight into early Saturday morning in response the cold front and its associated low pressure approaching the area. The low will rapidly intensify as it passes through the area Saturday morning along with the strong cold front. A strong northwest wind will develop behind this system, bringing in much colder air. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front will fall rapidly into the 20s and 30s behind the front Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon (teens and single digits along the ridge tops). The potent upper-level trough will pass through the area behind the cold front Saturday afternoon/early evening. Given the strong dynamics with the upper-level trough, this does cause an anafrontal setup, where a period of precipitation is expected to occur on the cold side of the boundary. Therefore, rain is expected to end as a period of snow for most areas. Latest guidance has shifted slightly east with the track of the surface low, hence allowing the cold air to spill in quicker. With this scenario, confidence increases for accumulating snow across most locations Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Confidence is still highest over the Mountains and west of Interstate 95, but having that been said there is increasing confidence for snow accumulation along and east of Interstate 95 as well. Typically, it is difficult to get a rain changing to snow setup east of the mountains on a northwest flow in the low-levels, especially for this time of year. However, reasons for increasing confidence in this occurring are that there is Arctic air being drawn into this system behind the cold front. Also, there is stronger Fgen forcing in the 850-700mb layer behind the cold front, and there are coupling jet streaks in the upper-levels (right entrance of northern stream and left exit of southern stream). The strong dynamics suggest that a period of moderate to perhaps heavy precipitation will add to the cooling from a dynamical standpoint while the Artic air is rushing in. For these reasons, we have issued a Winter Storm Warning in the Allegheny Highlands and northern VA Blue Ridge Mountains with advisories elsewhere late Friday night into Saturday. For locations farther east (the Washington/Baltimore Metro areas), they certainly may need to be added to the advisory. However, with a slightly later start time, thinking was to re-assess with the latest information later this morning or afternoon. For along/west of the Allegheny Front, there may be a break when the synoptic snow ends around midday Saturday, but additional snow showers are expected, and some may be heavy due to an unstable atmosphere, deep boundary layer that has moisture, and temps in the DGZ. Near blizzard conditions are possible. Confidence was too low for a Blizzard Warning at this time, since it may be more localized. Strong winds are expected behind the cold front Saturday morning through at least Saturday evening. Strong cold advection coupled with rapidly rising pressure behind the cold front and a deep mixing layer suggests that 50 to 55 mph are likely across much of the area during this time. Wind headlines will likely be needed during this time. Dangerously low wind chills around -10 to -20 degrees are possible along the ridges later Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. Elsewhere, wind chills near zero are most likely west of the Blue Ridge Mountains with single digits and teens elsewhere.

WSW and WWA's coming from LWX shortly

06z HRRR smokes the region (4-8 for most)... WSW criteria even into the snow depth maps 13z SAT to 17z SAT is the money time period... at 15z SAT tries for 0.2" QPF at DCA in one hour lol KDCA sounding at 12z SAT is heavy wet snow... QPF ends by around 19z. 06z HRRR shows around 0.6" QPF in the 6 hour time period between 12z and 18z for DCA

2mT would disagree for all of us and no fresh cold air

You dare incur the wrath of @mappy? Good luck sir

00z Ukie wasn't as great as 12z... but still 1-3/2-4 for most

Lol 00z GEFS mean is 3 to 4 inches in DC Snow depth is 1 to 3 on the mean

I'm not expecting much... but it would be nice to end the season seeing a few hours of snow TV. Coveting the grass would be nice, but I know thats not likely

Morning AFD from LWX on the threat on Saturday The low will rapidly intensify as it passes through the area Saturday morning along with the strong cold front. A strong northwest wind will develop behind this system, bringing in much colder air. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front will fall rapidly into the 20s and 30s behind the front Saturday afternoon (teens and single digits along the ridge tops). The potent upper-level trough will pass through the area behind the cold front Saturday afternoon/early evening. Given the strong dynamics with the upper-level trough, this does cause an anafrontal setup, where a period of precipitation is expected to occur on the cold side of the boundary. Therefore, rain is likely to end as a period of snow for most areas. There is still some uncertainty as to how much precipitation will be left by the time the cold air arrives, but it does appear increasingly likely that there will be accumulating snow in the farther northern and western suburbs of Washington/Baltimore toward the Allegheny Highlands. The farther west you go, the higher the confidence is and that`s because the cold air will arrive sooner, and those areas are in a more favorable location given the synoptics (left exit of upper-level jet and just northwest of the 850mb lows track). A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, where several inches of snow are possible. Additional advisories may be needed farther east. For Washington/Baltimore, there is still a chance for accumulating snow, but confidence decreases a bit. Will continue to monitor closely, because any slight change in the track of the low or timing of the cold air will have a significant impact on the potential for wintry precipitation. Another element to the snow for locations along/west of the Allegheny Front will be upslope Saturday afternoon and evening. With very cold air along with the potent upper-level trough, there is a deep saturated mixing layer with temperatures in the DGZ layer. This combined with some instability suggests that heavier burst of snow showers are likely behind the low Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Given the strong winds, very cold air, and potential for heavier bursts of snow, blizzard conditions are possible along the ridge tops. Strong winds are expected behind the cold front later Saturday morning/afternoon through at least Saturday evening. Strong cold advection coupled with rapidly rising pressure behind the cold front and a deep mixing layer suggests that 50 to 55 mph are likely across much of the area during this time. Some higher gusts around 60 mph cannot be ruled out, especially in the ridges. Wind headlines will likely be needed during this time. Dangerously low wind chills around -10 to -20 degrees are possible along the ridges later Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. Elsewhere, wind chills near zero are most likely west of the Blue Ridge Mountains with single digits and teens elsewhere.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 336 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-101645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0006.220312T0800Z-220313T0600Z/ Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 336 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible. Northwest winds around 40 to 55 mph are most likely, with the strongest winds Saturday afternoon and evenining. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From late Friday night through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The combination of snow and blowing snow may reduce visibility to around a quarter mile or less at times, especially Saturday afternoon and evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this

Early morning tornado looks to have gone right through Mobile, AL... PDS warnings were out for a large tornado OTG and had a TDS for a few scans

I thought this was mainly for winter stuff... but now it's for severe chances as well now in the HWO? @high risk @Kmlwx @MN Transplant DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is an enhanced severe storm threat late Friday into Saturday. Scattered storms with damaging wind gusts are possible. Strong northwest winds may cause instances of wind damage through Saturday evening. Gale-force winds are possible over the waters Saturday.

Woo showers?

LWX made a quick mention again in their afternoon AFD... mentions instability as only issue right now Meanwhile, a potent low pressure system looks to develop near the Great Lakes, moving into the northeast Saturday along with a strong cold front. The threat of severe weather is worth monitoring with this system moving forward, as SPC mentions the possibility of severe in the Mid-Atlantic in this time frame. As far as ingredients go, CAPE seems to be the limiting factor thus far.

Highly approved by @nj2va

Looks like the supposed line is early? Based off radar at least to me

What do you think about Saturday? Or too far out for right now? LWX had a quick mention in their morning AFD about it

0600Z spc disco Southern Appalachians through northern Mid Atlantic coast... Modest pre-frontal low-level moistening and, perhaps more notably, relatively warm layers aloft are generally forecast to limit warm sector boundary-layer destabilization today through tonight. However, given at least weak conditional instability, mid-level forcing for ascent along/ahead of the eastward advancing cold front will probably be sufficient to maintain or support new developing lines of fairly vigorous convection, particularly across the Cumberland Plateau and Allegheny Mountains vicinity into the northern Mid Atlantic coast by this evening. Coinciding with one belt of 50-70+ kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer propagating to the west of the Allegheny Mountains, and another developing to the lee of the Blue Ridge into the northern Mid Atlantic coast by this evening, this convection will contribute to the downward transfer of this momentum toward the surface. It seems probable that this will contribute to at least scattered, if not more widespread, damaging wind gusts.

So... maybe Monday night? From the morning LWX AFD: SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sct-nmrs morning showers expected Sunday in association with a strong low-lvl jet, then turning mainly dry during the afternoon. Temps could possibly reach into the low 80s for the first time this year. Remaining breezy/windy Sunday and Sunday night with low temperatures more typical of early June. Some showers are possible over the mountains and across northern areas. Deepning low pressure center over OH valley will track across the area Monday night bringing widespread showers and risk of thunderstorms late Monday through midnight Monday night. Strong low-level winds may pose a risk of damaging winds across the higher elevations where SPC has indicated a slight risk of severe weather Monday.

You should tweet Ian and ask him about going out west towards the Plains if you are going that far west

@nj2va approves From the SNE forum (h/t @brooklynwx99)