yoda

06z GFS soundings are quite decent... ML lapse rates are 6.5C/KM to 7.0C/KM at 21z THUR

@Kmlwx Early Step 4 alert?

SPC has outlooked the majority of the region for severe on Thursday (Day 5)

Uh oh Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes. On Wednesday, an increasingly moist air mass is expected across the region ahead of an upper-level trough that will take on an increasingly negative tilt, with very strong deep-layer/low-level winds coincident with a modestly unstable air mass. The potential for extensive early day precipitation/cloud cover ahead of the cold front casts some uncertainty in terms of destabilization details, particularly with northward extent into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Regardless, the extremely strong wind fields are concerning for the potential for long-lived supercells/fast-moving bowing segments where modest destabilization does occur. The most-concerning severe-favorable ingredients currently appear most probable across sizable portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

00z GFS soundings for 18z THUR to 00z FRI look decent

LWX AFD from this afternoon mentioned the threat By late Thursday, a strong cold front will approach the area and may introduce some heavy showers and even thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday. 40-50 knot bulk shear coupled with 200-300 MUCAPE values are being observed for this system in some of the guidance. This, coupled with >60 meter 500 hPa 12 hour height falls have triggered a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday. Main hazard for the event looks to be damaging winds along with isolated large hail. Main locations of interest where instability parameters look more favorable would be south of I-66 in central VA. SPC has a D6 15% outlook for severe weather, the first of its kind across portions of the area. Behind the cold front Friday morning, colder/dry airmass will build in for a brief period.

Graupel and rain and snow shower here now

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance remains in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Southwest into the southern Plains on D4/Tuesday, before then trending towards a more negative tilt while moving through the Lower/Mid MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley on D5/Wednesday. This shortwave is then forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Thursday. Severe potential will accompany this shortwave as it progresses eastward, beginning across the southern and central Plains on D4/Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will precede the shortwave across the Plains, with low 60s dewpoints potentially reaching through eastern OK by Tuesday evening. A well-developed EML atop this returning moisture will support moderate buoyancy. A sharp dryline will intersect with this buoyancy to support thunderstorm development, with the mesoscale ascent along the dryline aided by strengthening large-scale ascent. Supercell wind profiles will support updraft organization and the potential for all severe hazards. The severe weather threat will continue into the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D5/Wednesday. Buoyancy will be weaker here than farther west on D4/Tuesday, but both low- and mid-level flow will be very strong. Current guidance suggests mid-level flow within the now negatively tilted trough will exceed 100 kt at 500 mb. A large area of 60-65 kt 850 mb winds is expected. This will result in large, looping hodographs that support organized severe thunderstorms. Convective mode will have a large influence on the dominant severe type, but a discrete mode would result in the potential for long-lived supercells. Even if the mode is more linear (which appears most likely at this point), the strong wind fields support the potential for numerous severe gusts as well as embedded QLCS circulations. The shortwave will likely lose some definition by D6/Thursday but remain strong enough to support thunderstorms as it interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant environment across the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields are expected to support organized severe thunderstorms across portions of central VA and central NC. Variability (both run to run and between models) increases after D6/Thursday, limiting forecast confidence and predictability on D7/Friday and D8/Saturday. ..Mosier.. 03/26/2022

Southern part of LWX CWA down by EZF outlooked by SPC for Day 6 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance remains in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Southwest into the southern Plains on D4/Tuesday, before then trending towards a more negative tilt while moving through the Lower/Mid MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley on D5/Wednesday. This shortwave is then forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Thursday. Severe potential will accompany this shortwave as it progresses eastward, beginning across the southern and central Plains on D4/Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will precede the shortwave across the Plains, with low 60s dewpoints potentially reaching through eastern OK by Tuesday evening. A well-developed EML atop this returning moisture will support moderate buoyancy. A sharp dryline will intersect with this buoyancy to support thunderstorm development, with the mesoscale ascent along the dryline aided by strengthening large-scale ascent. Supercell wind profiles will support updraft organization and the potential for all severe hazards. The severe weather threat will continue into the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D5/Wednesday. Buoyancy will be weaker here than farther west on D4/Tuesday, but both low- and mid-level flow will be very strong. Current guidance suggests mid-level flow within the now negatively tilted trough will exceed 100 kt at 500 mb. A large area of 60-65 kt 850 mb winds is expected. This will result in large, looping hodographs that support organized severe thunderstorms. Convective mode will have a large influence on the dominant severe type, but a discrete mode would result in the potential for long-lived supercells. Even if the mode is more linear (which appears most likely at this point), the strong wind fields support the potential for numerous severe gusts as well as embedded QLCS circulations. The shortwave will likely lose some definition by D6/Thursday but remain strong enough to support thunderstorms as it interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant environment across the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields are expected to support organized severe thunderstorms across portions of central VA and central NC. Variability (both run to run and between models) increases after D6/Thursday, limiting forecast confidence and predictability on D7/Friday and D8/Saturday. ..Mosier.. 03/26/2022

Decent storm here at work... had to close the yard due to lightning rules XD

@high risk Any chance for some severe tonight into tomorrow? I see MRGL risk nearby... maybe some WF fun late tonight?

00z GFS early April blizzard FTW

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 655 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Williamson County in south central Texas... Northwestern Lee County in south central Texas... * Until 715 PM CDT. * At 655 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles east of Coupland, or 8 miles northeast of Elgin, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Tanglewood, Knobb Springs and Blue.

18z GFS is ugly temp wise for the weekend... heavy upslope snow out west in the Allegheny Front and highs around 50 on Saturday for most and 40s for highs on Sunday across the region Don't know if growing season has started yet, but frost/freeze concerns Monday morning... highs in the 45-50 too... yuck

70/50 tor probs https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0054.html

Wednesday evening maybe?

If only the 00z NAM sounding at 21z SAT would come true lol... would be good enough for damaging winds... maybe some hail and isolated weak spinup. 06z NAM continues it... but decreases the low level shear and suggests more of a damaging wind threat

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models continue to depict likelihood for a multi-day -- and potentially widespread -- severe weather episode across the south-central and southeastern U.S. through the first part of next week. Deterministic global models, as well as both GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means, are in good agreement with pattern evolution through Day 6 and into Day 7, lending confidence to the evolving scenario. Day 4/Sunday, a digging upper trough will shift across the western U.S., with a closed low expected to evolve over New Mexico vicinity overnight. Low-level moisture will be returning into the southern Plains at this point, but in an incomplete manner, and thus any risk for severe weather late Sunday night/Monday morning should remain rather low, and likely confined primarily to hail with elevated overnight storms. By Day 5/Monday, as the upper low moves northeastward across New Mexico toward the High Plains, a surface low is forecast to evolve over western Texas, and move toward western Oklahoma. As this occurs, continued advection of high theta-e Gulf air into roughly the eastern half of Texas will occur ahead of an advancing cold front. As the airmass diurnally destabilizes, an increase in storm coverage an intensity is expected. With very strong southwesterly/south-southwesterly flow aloft, atop south-southeasterlies at low levels, deep-layer shear will favor supercells, along with sufficient low-level shear to support potential for tornadoes -- a few possibly strong. Large hail and damaging winds are also expected. As the upper system makes only slow eastward progress Day 6/Tuesday, another day of severe weather is expected, displaced somewhat to the east as the surface front progresses. Continued influx of Gulf moisture into the warm sector will permit ample CAPE to develop, while strong low-level and deep-layer shear will again be present across the warm sector. This will again favor an all-hazards severe event, including tornado potential, that will continue through the evening and into the overnight period.

BDCF's ftw

@mappy That map is

As in 850s or the column lol

Luckily this is happening tomorrow... if it was Sunday that extra hour of daylight would screw us

Probably going to wait for the rest of the 12z suite

Could see them push it towards HGR