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AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1020 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday. A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make another brief return early next week before unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The focus of the near term will be on the potential for severe thunderstorms with the primary threat being damaging winds and the potential for an isolated tornado and large hail. The main uncertainty for this event will be how much instability is realized, and if it is rooted within the boundary layer. 12Z CAMs continue to show an upward trend in potential instability this afternoon/evening along and east of I-81. If this instability comes to fruition, given the ample shear in place and height falls along the trough/cold front, strong to severe thunderstorms could be more widespread in nature. The LLJ will be pumping Gulf Moisture into the area at 55-70 kts at 850 mb and 40-60 kts at 925 mb. There is the potential for cellular storms ahead/along the cold front before they congeal into a linear feature that may include the potential for mesovorticies along the leading edge. Again, this all depends on if modeled instability is realized. Previous discussion follows...

Ah okay, makes sense... though probably means the US will be making it out of the group as the runners up IMO

LCLs were basically in the 500s... so yes lol

Agreed. Not exactly sure what is meant by pots as described here... but US and Mexico are in Pot 2 and Canada is in Pot 4. Groups will be announced tomorrow at noon https://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-world-cup/story/4628652/world-cup-finals-draw-pots-and-seedings-confirmed-for-fridays-ceremony

Interesting re bolded .Southeastern CONUS to Hudson Valley region... The earliest threat area is ongoing -- across portions of the FL Panhandle, southern GA and northwestern FL. See SPC tornado watch 85 and related mesoscale discussions for details on the near-term threats with this activity. A broad plume of low-level theta-e advection will combine with muted diurnal heating to at least marginally destabilize the boundary layer today, in a broad swath from the Carolinas into the northern Mid-Atlantic. This will support additional bands of scattered to numerous showers, and widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms, expected to develop from the southern Piedmont to the central Appalachians and move quickly northeastward across the outlook area today. A mixed mode of QLCS (bows, LEWPs and embedded mesovortices) and a few supercells are possible, supporting a threat for damaging gusts (a few severe at 50+ kt intensity) and a few tornadoes. With weakly unstable lapse rates, preconvective dewpoints reaching the mid 50s north to mid 50s south will be counterbalanced by somewhat colder air aloft in the mid-Atlantic, warmer over the Carolinas to Delmarva. The 12Z IAD sounding sampled a likely narrow ribbon of a remnant of the southern Plains EML, within a broader area of weak 600-800-mb lapse rates. Peak warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 100-500 J/kg range over the Mid-Atlantic and 500-1000 J/kg over the Carolinas, and 1000-1500 J/kg in southeastern GA and northern FL. As noted above, the strongest mid/upper winds will be over the middle parts of the outlook area today, while a 60-75-kt LLJ takes shape from the Carolinas into the eastern Mid-Atlantic. This will foster effective-shear magnitudes peaking around 60-75 kt in the NC/VA/MD region, decreasing but still strong northward and southward. Meanwhile, lengthy hodographs will support effective SRH in the 200-400 J/kg range over much of the corridor. Strongest forcing for ascent should be ahead of the front in the northern parts of the area where buoyancy is weakest, in a strong-shear/ low-CAPE scenario. Uncertainty remains as to coverage of severe gusts reaching the surface given some constraints on low-level lapse rates, but even subsevere winds will be capable of minor structural damage and trees down. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 03/31/2022

5% tor added on 1300z OTLK

FWIW, both 09z HRRR and 10z RAP suggest STP values of 1-2 across the i95 region btwn 21z and 00z

06z NAM hodo's and 0-3/0-1km SRH values def would suggest tornado threat this evening

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 530 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ052>057-010930- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 530 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but hail or a few tornadoes are possible as well. Strong winds may lead to isolated instances of wind damage even outside of thunderstorms.

Morning LWX AFD disco on the threat today... hope we can get some more instability then what is being modeled Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 406 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday. A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make another brief return early next week before unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Deepening surface cyclone over the western Great Lks will move into western Quebec by tonight. Ahead of its associated cold front, a strong low-lvl flow will develop over the area with 925 and 850 mb winds increasing to 45kt and 65kt respectively by 18Z today. 500 mb heights will fall around 100 meters in 12 hours today leading to large scale ascent for upward vertical motion. Widespread showers and low-topped thunderstorms are expected beginning by 12Z across the Appalachian region and will spread east through the day, exiting the Chesapeake Bay by 03Z tonight. While instability will be limited (CAPE values generally 250-500 J/kg), magnitude of low-lvl winds is such that any showers or thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Even outside of showers, gradient winds are strong enough to support 40-45 mph winds. While deep layer shear is strong enough to support supercells, limited instability will likely limit tornado potential. Most CAMs indicate a linear mode of convection with a squall line moving through the area in the 18Z-02Z time frame. There will also be a low risk for flooding across northeast Maryland where models indicate some training convection possible. Showers will exit by 06Z but upslope rain/snow showers will persist into Friday.

2/5/15 on the new Day 1... but disco says higher probs possible depending on instability ...North Carolina into the Lower Hudson Valley... A mid-level impulse will eject into the Hudson Valley during the afternoon and overspread the core of the low-level jet, promoting an intense tropospheric vertical wind profile and associated strong deep-layer shear. Enlarged hodographs from the Carolina Piedmont northward suggest storm organization with any convection that can intensify and become surface-based. The primary factor limiting the introduction of higher probabilities this outlook is scant buoyancy. 5.5-6.5 C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates atop 55-60F surface dewpoints may promote SBCAPE up to 750 J/kg across North Carolina, to 250-500 J/kg into the Hudson Valley. Damaging gusts and a brief tornado may accompany any sustained, robust updrafts, hence the maintenance of a Category 2/Slight risk. Given 50-60 kt flow at/just below 500 meters AGL and the enlarged hodographs, higher wind/tornado probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if it becomes evident that greater surface-based instability will be realized.

Some of those 00z NAM soundings (21z THUR and 00z FRI) are a bit ominous... especially since its March still

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1008 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ALC091-310330- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220331T0330Z/ Marengo AL- 1008 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY... At 1008 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Linden, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Linden, Uniontown, Thomaston, Faunsdale, Dayton, Freddie Jones Field, Chickasaw State Park and Octagon.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 958 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ALC007-021-310345- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0036.000000T0000Z-220331T0345Z/ Chilton AL-Bibb AL- 958 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN CHILTON AND SOUTHEASTERN BIBB COUNTIES... At 957 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Talladega National Forest, or 10 miles southeast of Brent, moving northeast at 60 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Calera, Centreville, Jemison, Thorsby, Maplesville, Lawley, Ashby, Brierfield Ironworks Park, Talladega National Forest, Chilton County Motor Sports Park, Randolph, Minooka Park, Trio, Six Mile and Bibb County Airport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

USA in the World Cup even though they lost 2-0 to Costa Rica tonight Finish 3rd behind Mexico and Canada in the table

5/5/15 is my guess on what the new Day 1 OTLK from SPC will show for our region tomorrow

That escalated quickly @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1035 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong area of low pressure will move from the Mississippi River Valley to the Great Lakes through Thursday. A warm front associated with the low will lift northward through early Thursday, then a strong cold front will cross the region from west to east Thursday night. High pressure is expected to return Friday into Saturday before another area of low pressure moves up and off the coast Sunday. High pressure likely makes a return to start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Current surface analysis shows an area of low pressure centered over IL. This area of low pressure will rapidly deepen as it lifts northward into the Great Lakes overnight. As it lifts to the north, it will move a surface warm front northward through the area overnight. This will keep temperatures mild overnight, with temperatures falling off briefly this evening, before rising through the 50s to near 60 by daybreak. Winds will increase out of the south and become quite gusty. Skies will remain cloudy, with lower clouds moving in throughout the night. However, most locations should remain dry through much of the overnight. Low pressure will continue to lift northward through southern Quebec into western Ontario tomorrow. Showers will start to break out across the area tomorrow morning as forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching upper trough starts to overspread the area. These showers will be focused primarily across western portions of the forecast area during the morning hours before gradually spreading eastward during the afternoon hours. Skies should stay mostly cloudy, but a few filtered breaks of sunshine may occur between the showers. By afternoon, most locations should make it into the 70s (primarily due to advection), with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s to around 60. This will lead to the development of limited surface based instability (on the order of 200-500 J/kg). Gentle height falls downstream of the trough, coupled with the instability present will lead to the development of thunderstorms across the area, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. Some CAMs (notably the 00z HRRR and 00z FV3) have hinted at a relatively cellular convective mode, which seems plausible given the relatively gentle height falls and lack of a stronger shortwave to encourage rapid upscale growth. Given the very strong shear in place (70-90 knots of flow at mid-levels), any isolated cells would become supercellular in nature. All hazards (tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds) appear possible, especially if the storm mode is primarily supercellular. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, given the very strong low- level jet that will be in place (50-70 knots at 1 km). Winds will be very gusty, even outside of storms, with southerly winds in clear air potentially approaching Wind Advisory criteria. There may also be a threat for localized flash flooding. If the convective mode does turn out more linear, there is a large component of the flow aloft parallel to any initiating boundaries, so there could be some localized training of storms (in spite of the very fast storm motions). Any storms should progress eastward throughout the evening hours. We`ll continue to monitor the threat for severe storms through the night and into the day tomorrow.

70/50 tor probs... >95/50 wind probs https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0080.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 80 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Alabama Middle Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of storms will continue quickly east-northeastward this evening into Middle TN and northern/central Alabama. Very strong low-level/deep-layer winds will support the potential for tornadoes and widespread damaging winds as additional moistening occurs into the region.

Well that escalated quickly Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast States. All severe hazards are possible, including significant gusts over 75 mph and strong (EF2+) tornadoes. ...SEVERE-WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA... ...Synopsis... A strong southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from central KS through the TX Hill Country early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward/northeastward throughout the day, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this through, with 100+ kt at 500 mb stretching from southeast TX northeastward through the Mid-South Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, very strong low-level flow will precede this feature, with a large area of 60+ kt at 850 mb expected across the MS Valley Wednesday afternoon. Low-level moisture advection will also precede this shortwave trough, bringing at least low 60s dewpoints through the Mid-South/TN Valley. Upper 50s dewpoints will likely reach into the Lower/Middle OH Valley. These dewpoints will help foster at least modest buoyancy and thunderstorms are anticipated as the shortwave ejects northeastward over this moist and buoyant airmass. Given the strength of the wind fields, severe thunderstorms are likely, particularly across portions of the Lower MS Valley and Southeast where a regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is anticipated. ...Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the Ozark Plateau southwestward into East TX early Wednesday. Expectation is for this line of storms to quickly move eastward, outpacing a cold front moving southeastward into the MS Valley. Widespread clouds will limit diurnal heating downstream of this line of storms, but strong moisture advection will still result in at least modest buoyancy and airmass destabilization. At the same time, wind fields will strengthen considerably. This combination of buoyancy and very strong wind shear is forecast to result in a strengthening of the line as it moves into eastern AR and LA during the early afternoon, before then continuing quickly eastward across MS and AL during the evening and overnight. The kinematic fields, especially in the low-levels around 850 to 700 mb, are forecast to be very intense. Mean wind speeds from the HREF show a corridor of 70 kt at 850 mb from central LA into southeast AR at 18Z. Deep-layer mean winds are forecast to be 65+ kt across much of LA, MS, and AL as the line moves through. Expectation is that these robust wind fields will result in an intense convective line capable of widespread wind damage. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes are also likely within this environment, including the potential for strong tornadoes (EF2+). Fast storm motion could result in longer-track QLCS tornadoes than are typically observed. In addition to the strong wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes, discrete supercells ahead of and/or south of the primary convective line are also possible. Any discrete storm that is able to mature and deepen would likely become an intense supercell capable of producing severe wind gusts and strong tornadoes. However, the forcing for ascent and fast-moving character of the shortwave (as well as the convective line) do not favor a discrete convective mode, and the current expectation is for the linear mode to dominate.

Ah yes, a nice cold and crisp 23 degrees at 525am on March 29th lol

So you need to continue going during the playoffs then

Afternoon LWX AFD seems to like the threat LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very dynamic system associated with a strong nearly negatively tilted upper level trough will impact our region on Thursday. A strong cold front associated with the trough axis is forecast to pass through our region Thursday afternoon and into the evening periods. Ahead of the frontal passage, strong warm air advection will lead to temps in the mid 70s with models forecasting CAPE values potentially over 800 J/KG. Most model guidance is also indicating a strong wind field especially with nearly 70s knots between the 850 and 700 mb layer. Strong speed shear along with CAPE around 1000 J/Kg will likely lead to an increased risk for strong to severe storms on Thursday. SPC has been highlighting areas east of the Blue Ridge Mtns for the past two days with a 15% slight risk in their day 4/5 outlook which they only reserve for enhanced threats. Looking at model precipitation, it seems there will be two threats for storms on Thursday, one associated with the strong low level jet ahead of the front and then also when the boundary moves through our region. We will need to monitor model trends to determine timing and magnitude of the SVR threat for Thursday.