yoda

Says it was 83 at 2pm per the hourly weather obs 87 at CHO though 85 at RIC

Slight taste of summer today... now if we could only get an evening storm to go with it

Tornado Watch coming shortly Mesoscale Discussion 0476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 131732Z - 131930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Rapid destabilization is expected across portions of the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley DISCUSSION...A stable airmass is currently in place across the lower Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley in the wake of a morning MCV. However, low-level moisture is expected to improve significantly over the next several hours. The leading edge of richer Gulf moisture can now be seen on visible satellite where the cu field is expanding north across Mississippi and western Alabama. Extrapolating northward movement of this better moisture and northeastward movement of ongoing thunderstorm activities, it appears better low-level moisture will arrive prior to the convective line east of the Mississippi River and possibly slightly west. Expect this better moisture to reach the Missouri bootheel around 19-20Z, southern Illinois 20-21Z and southern Indiana around 22Z. MLCAPE is expected to increase to the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range ahead of these storms which should be sufficiently unstable to not only support a significant severe weather threat with the squall line, but also potentially allow for some more discrete convection to develop ahead of the line. In addition, surface winds are expected to back across the warm sector as the upper-level trough advances northeastward. Therefore, significant elongation of the low-level hodographs is anticipated. Therefore, all severe weather hazards are expected this afternoon/evening including the potential for 75+ mph wind gusts and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the next 1 to 2 hours. ..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LZK...

BWI was 82 at 1pm obs

For a few severe wind gusts

Tornado Watch up for S IL into SE MO

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours.

Sounds like SPC was tossing the HIGH risk around reading the 1300z SPC OTLK Guyer/Smith co-wrote the 1300z SPC OTLK FWIW

Nice morning for a long doggie walk

ENH risk now just in TX including DFW metro... SLGT risk in OK

Per 1300z OTLK from SPC: Mod risk added to N IA... 45% hatched hail added and 45% hatched wind added to W into N IA 15% tor probs added as well in IA

Maybe sneaky severe storm on Wednesday too? Morning AFD from LWX A warm front will return back north on Wednesday. Therefore, WAA will increase once again. If the warm front moves north of the region as indicated by most guidance, sun could aid in bringing temperatures towards the 80 degree mark east of I-81, with a few locations a degree or two higher. Rain chances on Wednesday are highest along the Mason-Dixon line closer to where a shortwave trough will pass through. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm across the far northwest given the forecast instability, though uncertainty remains if the instability will be surface based or elevated. Should greater instability be realized, some rotating updrafts aren`t out of the question given what appears to be supportive deep layer shear, but even then, am not sure that there would be enough CAPE for severe storms. Conditions should stabilize as diurnal heating is lost Wednesday evening into the overnight, with many locations drying out. Thursday will feature a potent cold front passing through the area into the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures Thursday will be highly sensitive to the timing of the cold front passage. Current guidance suggests a later cold front passage, resulting in warm southerly flow ahead of the cold front bringing temperatures to near 80 degrees again east of the mountains. The dynamics associated with the cold front will yield the next opportunity for rain showers and thunderstorms. This is another HSLC set up, with 50-60 kt bulk shear and mean CAPE less than 300 J/kg. A few ensemble members continue to bring CAPE values significantly higher near the metros late Thursday, but confidence is low at this time if the instability would be rooted within the boundary layer. Will maintain the potential for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening, some of which could be strong or even severe.

Thread soon?

MRGL for Thursday from SPC

Everyone gets a frost advisory tonight lol

Sounds like Thursday could be our next date to watch for possible severe per this morning AFD

Frosty! URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 128 AM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022 MDZ003>006-008-507-508-WVZ051>053-111300- /O.CON.KLWX.FR.Y.0001.220411T0400Z-220411T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 128 AM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Maryland, Southeast Harford, Northwest Harford, Northern Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick MD, Washington and Cecil Counties. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Morgan and Jefferson Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Frost could damage sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

Stupid Capitals

If we have some good CAPE to go along with the strong wind fields, sure

Where's the thread from @weatherwiz about this threat?

Can we have some sun and like, low 70s for a few weeks please?

Large 30 percent added on days 4 and 5 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A substantial, multi-day severe thunderstorm event will continue on Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday across much of the central CONUS. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur. ...Day 4/Tuesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest... Medium-range guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement regarding the eastward progression of an upper trough across the western/central CONUS on Day 4/Tuesday. A deep surface cyclone is forecast to eject eastward across the central Plains through the day, reaching the vicinity of the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. Low-level moisture will advect rapidly northward ahead of the surface low and east of a dryline across parts of the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to be present over much of the warm sector, which should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability east of the dryline by Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level height falls and related ascent preceding the upper trough overspread the southern/central Plains, convection will likely initiate along the dryline from eastern KS to central TX. Even with deep-layer shear forecast to remain fairly modest through the day, the large reservoir of buoyancy will likely support robust severe thunderstorms. Large to very large hail should occur with initially discrete convection, and damaging winds will be a concern as convection grows upscale Tuesday night. Greater tornado potential may focus across the central Plains into parts of the Midwest/mid MS Valley, where better low-level shear should be present owing to a strengthening low-level jet. A 30% severe area has been included where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley/Midwest and Southeast... Convection still posing some severe threat may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South in a strong low-level warm advection regime. As the large-scale upper trough ejects eastward over the central CONUS, low-level moisture should continue to stream northward across the lower/mid MS Valley into parts of the Midwest. There are some differences in model guidance regarding the evolution of this upper trough on Day 5/Wednesday. Still, it appears likely that scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will develop across the broad warm sector and to the east of a cold front/dryline through much of the day. Strong deep-layer shear should combine with adequate instability to support updraft organization. All severe hazards appear possible with this convection, and any supercells will pose a threat for tornadoes in addition to large hail and damaging winds. Even with lingering uncertainty regarding the possible effect of early-day convection and some model differences in the placement of the upper trough and related surface features, enough confidence exists to include a 30% severe area for parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. This region appears to have the best chance for substantial destabilization Wednesday afternoon and discrete supercells. An isolated severe threat will probably persist into Wednesday evening/night across parts of the Midwest into the lower OH Valley and Southeast. Even though low-level moisture and instability should gradually decrease with eastward extent across these regions, both low-level and deep-layer shear will likely remain strong. This may support a continued severe threat through much of the overnight hours.

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/summaries_and_publications/extremes.html

Chance of a frost/freeze early next week before that though