yoda

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 187 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 232 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022 VAC003-015-125-540-790-820-070200- /O.NEW.KLWX.TO.A.0187.220506T1832Z-220507T0200Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 187 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA ALBEMARLE CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE NELSON IN WESTERN VIRGINIA AUGUSTA CITY OF STAUNTON CITY OF WAYNESBORO THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CHARLOTTESVILLE, CROZET, GREENFIELD, STAUNTON, STAUNTON, WAYNESBORO, AND WAYNESBORO.

Tornado Watch #187 basically goes from C NC all the way north to the LWX/AKQ CWA border counties. CHO and Staunton are included in the watch (Nelson and Albermarle and Augusta counties) It is in effect until 10pm tonight https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0187.html 60/20 tor probs

@Eskimo Joe maybe this is what the HRRR is hinting at for later? STWarning is out from RLX for part of the line right now Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1021 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will track through the area tonight. Thereafter, an upper level low will linger in the vicinity of the area through the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Widespread showers are moving through our region this morning with embedded moderate to heavy showers. We are seeing rain rates of 0.10 inches per hour in the light rain with rates up to an inch per hour in the heavier bands. Our morning sounding had a PW value of 1.5 inches which is above the 90th percentile climatology value for this time of the year. A strong convective line is currently moving through portions central West Virginia and has a history of producing 2.5 inches per hour rates. This line is currently on pace to reach the Allegheny front between 17Z and 1830Z this afternoon.

Next season

I know the best chances of severe are down south of us... but i wouldn't mind some good storms this afternoon/evening

yay Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 313 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-503>506-VAZ052>054-501-505-506-061515- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0003.220506T2100Z-220507T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Silver Spring, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Damascus, Falls Church, Purcellville, Bethesda, Chantilly, Centreville, Sterling, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, Germantown, Leesburg, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Severn, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Ashburn, Ellicott City, Woodbridge, Washington, Annandale, Warrenton, Lisbon, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 313 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...DC and portions of Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: the District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Northern Fauquier, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From this afternoon through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are expected through tonight. This may lead to localized instances of flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

This is pretty cool and well written by OUN

Well looks like both the Penguins and Capitals are going to be tied 1-1 in their playoff series

3 goals on 7 shots for the Panthers... wow

Hopefully Pittsburgh can win tonight to take a 2-0 series lead back home... and Florida wins tonight to tie the series at 1-1

Reports are Wilson will not play tonight https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/33860999/washington-capitals-injured-forward-tom-wilson-game-2

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 858 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Wilbarger County in northern Texas... * Until 930 PM CDT. * At 858 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 4 miles south of Lockett, moving east at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * Locations impacted include... Oklaunion. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

TOG near Brooksville

Expanded quite alot eastward

Looking at the bracket... Penguins and Capitals won't be able to meet until the Eastern Conference Finals. We'll see who gets there lol

Sounds like a fun night ahead for the region per the afternoon LWX AFD... also never seen thunder mentioned as being disruptive before... is that being said just because it's night time and could wake people up? @high risk @MN Transplant NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of mid afternoon, a warm front was dangling near the VA/NC border, with a few other weak convergence or differential heating zones noted roughly between the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. This setup, combined with a frontal system approaching from the west and south, will result in a likelihood of showers and some thunderstorms for portions of the region through tonight. Central VA and vicinity: A line of towering cumulus was evident in visible satellite imagery along the Allegheny Front, and will likely evolve into a cluster of showers and thunderstorms across west-central Virginia through late afternoon. Any such convection should then track generally eastward to northeastward toward the central Shenandoah Valley and onto the piedmont before weakening as it encounters more stable air in areas that have been shrouded by low clouds much of the day. Given 30 to 40 knots of flow within a few kilometers of the surface, and surface- (or near surface) based CAPE on the order of 1000+ J/kg, a few of these storms could become strong to severe, and capable of gusty to damaging winds and hail. Overall, the threat of severe weather appears to be limited (i.e. marginal/isolated), and mainly focused on this evening. Although forecast soundings indicate a threat for backbuilding, forcing may be too weak and transient and the individual storm motion too quick to allow enough heavy rainfall for flooding, especially given the recent dry conditions in this area. The most likely area/time period for storms is roughly from Shenandoah Mountain to Staunton, Waynesboro, and Charlottesville between 6pm and 10pm, with scattered showers and perhaps a few weaker/elevated thunderstorms likely persisting much of the night given forcing along an approaching warm front. Western MD and vicinity: Areas near and west of the Allegheny Front and north of Petersburg WV will be located closer to stronger forcing from a shortwave trough and associated surface low passing over OH/PA. Similar to areas further south, CAPE likely becomes rooted at or near the surface this evening, eclipsing 1000 J/kg at its peak. Moderate shear is modest low-level curvature to the wind profile could result in transient supercell structures, though the main storm mode will likely be linear bands or clusters with an associated risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, or possibly even an isolated tornado if supercells evolve. Forecast soundings and low-level winds parallel to an approaching cold front attached to the low could result in training convection. HREF probabilities show potential for localized 2+ inches of rainfall, which given somewhat higher soil moisture in this area (relative to further south and east) may result in a few isolated instances of flooding tonight. The greatest risk area appears to be west of the Eastern Continental Divide in Garrett County, closest to the aforementioned trough/low. Timing wise, the threat looks to be focused on the mid to late evening hours (8pm-midnight). East and south of there into eastern West Virginia and western Maryland east of the Allegheny Front, the threat may be more isolated in nature. Elsewhere: Despite a strong near-surface stable layer, forecast soundings indicate 600-1200 J/kg of CAPE aloft (lifting from ~875 mb) late this evening. This, coupled with moderately strong warm/moist advection overtop an approaching warm front could keep storms going well into the overnight. The low-level stability should preclude any gusty winds from reaching the surface, but hail potential may linger. The low-level stable layer/temperature inversion could also amplify the sound of thunder overnight, making it rather disruptive. At least isolated thunderstorms are possible for much of the night, though could end up being more numerous at times given the strength of the approaching warm front; nocturnal convection, however, is notoriously fickle and hard to predict. There will be a fair amount of moisture in the atmosphere, as well, with PWs up to around 1.5" (1-2 SA above normal). That, coupled with moisture flux into the area, could result in some heavy downpours and perhaps an isolated instance or two of nuisance flooding/ponding in urban or poor drainage areas. &&

I think it depends on your PP and goaltending. If Ovie can get a PPG early on in Game 1, I think that will help WSH immensely. Plus, if your goaltending can step up, that will help as well. Florida had the highest goals scored average per game in the regular season (4.11)

12z EURO agrees... says upper 50s to maybe low 60s for most next Friday... 55-60 for most next Saturday as well for highs

Monday's highs 60-65... and then someone ordered the wedge sandwich for next Tuesday on the 12z GFS too

12z GFS for next weekend is quite cool... 55-60 for Friday for BWI into NE MD... near 50 for all Saturday... and near 60 on Sunday

Could be a day 2 mod risk reading Broyles day 3 outlook discussion Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday over the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of west-central Texas and in the western Tennessee Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern and central Plains on Monday, as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will move southeastward into northwestern Oklahoma as a cold front advances southeastward into central Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. A dryline will be located from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas with a warm front in eastern Kansas. Low-level moisture advection will increase across the moist sector with surface dewpoints climbing into the lower to mid 60s F from central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Moderate instability will develop along this corridor by afternoon. Convection is forecast to initiate during the late afternoon along the western and northern edge of the stronger instability from west-central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas. A southwest-to-northeast broken line of severe storms, with discrete elements, is expected to organize from central Oklahoma north-northeastward into southeast Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat will likely continue to the late evening and early overnight period as the storms move eastward into the Ozarks. In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, the mid-level jet will created moderate to strong deep-layer shear from central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense updrafts. Also, low-level shear will dramatically increase during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet strengthens across northeastern Oklahoma. To the west and northwest of the low-level jet, lift and low-level shear will become very favorable for tornadoes. NAM forecast soundings at 00Z/Tuesday near Perry, Oklahoma have 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 450 m2/s2 with long and looped hodographs. As a result, strong tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells, and a long-track damaging tornado will be possible. Wind damage will also be likely with the downdrafts associated with supercells, and along the leading edge of any short line segments that organize. A severe threat will also be possible during the late afternoon and early evening across southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas and west-central Texas. But any threat for large hail and wind damage should remain isolated there from late afternoon to the mid evening. ..Broyles.. 04/30/2022

PDS TOR warning for Butler and Greenwood counties in KS