yoda

BWI at 101 at 4pm obs DCA 99 IAD 98

3 STWs up from LWX right now

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and Arizona. The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern Iowa into Illinois and Indiana. ...Midwest... Both tornado and wind probabilities have been increased with the 20z update to 10 percent, and 45 percent SIG, respectively. Latest satellite imagery shows a modified outflow boundary draped across far eastern IA into northern IL. A very moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s amid strong heating is resulting in a corridor or strong to extreme instability across the region. Favorable vertical shear will support initial supercells, organizing into a bowing MCS with time as low-level flow remains orthogonal to the developing band of storms. The greatest severe wind potential is expected along the instability gradient in the vicinity of the remnant outflow boundary, extending from far eastern IA into extreme southern WI, northern IL, and far northwest IN into this evening. Widespread gusts of 60-70 mph are expected, with some gusts to 85 mph possible. Given favorable low-level shear, mesovortex tornadoes are likely along and near the apex of the developing bow late this afternoon into evening. For short term details on severe potential across this area, reference MCD 1630.

Looks like 98 at both DCA and BWI at 1pm... 95 at IAD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1255 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 DCZ001-MDZ006-008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506>508-VAZ053>055-057- 527-160100- /O.UPG.KLWX.EH.A.0005.240716T1500Z-240717T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.EH.W.0007.240716T1500Z-240717T0000Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.EH.W.0006.000000T0000Z-240716T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Dahlgren, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 1255 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...During the Excessive Heat Warnings, dangerously hot conditions with heat index values around 110 expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northeast, northern and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...For the first Excessive Heat Warning, until 8 PM EDT this evening. For the second Excessive Heat Warning, from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very warm and humid conditions will persist into the overnight hours, adding heat stress to those without air conditioning. Ensure to stay hydrated and find ways to stay cool.

100+ guaranteed

Downtown Minneapolis about to get rocked BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1236 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Hennepin County in east central Minnesota... East central Wright County in central Minnesota... * Until 100 AM CDT. * At 1235 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Otsego, or 13 miles east of Buffalo, moving southeast at 35 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR THE WESTERN TWIN CITIES METRO. HAZARD...Three inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Brooklyn Park, Maple Grove, Champlin, Anoka, St. Michael, Otsego, Rogers, Albertville, Corcoran, Medina, Dayton, and Hanover. This includes Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 199 and 205. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 4527 9355 4524 9352 4524 9350 4523 9349 4521 9342 4514 9331 4505 9362 4526 9373 4530 9364 TIME...MOT...LOC 0535Z 319DEG 31KT 4525 9360 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...3.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 139 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ037>040-050- 051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527-140145- /O.NEW.KLWX.EH.A.0004.240715T1500Z-240716T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 139 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 110 possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, northern and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia and central, northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From Monday morning through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very warm and humid conditions will persist into the overnight hours. Ensure to stay hydrated and find ways to stay cool. Another dangerously hot day is expected on Tuesday.

The forecast this morning was 88/89 I believe. It hit 97

Or the Wegmans

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 224 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 MDZ011-014-508-130230- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0016.000000T0000Z-240713T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Southeast Harford- Including the cities of Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Baltimore, Severna Park, Odenton, Severn, Aberdeen, Arnold, and South Gate 224 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland, including the following areas, in central Maryland, Anne Arundel. In northern Maryland, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore. * WHEN...Through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A couple rounds of heavy rainfall are likely this evening, and again late tonight into Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will average around 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts around 3 to 4 inches possible. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

FFW up for Calvert/Charles/St. Mary's in MD and King George in VA Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 301 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 MDZ016>018-VAZ057-120715- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0016.240712T0600Z-240713T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-King George- Including the cities of Dahlgren, Chesapeake Beach, St. Charles, Dunkirk, Waldorf, Huntingtown, North Beach, Lusby, California, Prince Frederick, and Lexington Park 301 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland, including the following areas, Calvert, Charles and St. Marys and central Virginia, including the following area, King George. * WHEN...From 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move across the area starting late tonight and continuing through Friday evening. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated higher amounts possible. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

No 80+ low today... DCA is 79 at 3am

00z GFS is toasty for DC metro... 100 Sunday, 103 Monday, 104 Tuesday. Wednesday looks like a front nearby or a backdoor front as its 80 at BWI but 97 at EZF. Bit of a "break" for a few days before the heat returns at the end of the run with 100 degrees reappearing

No thanks

TOR possible tag on it now

20/5 tor probs... 70/10 wind probs on the watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Southern Pennsylvania Virginia Far Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to develop and intensify across the region, with the most sustained storms potentially focused across southern Pennsylvania, interior Maryland, into northern/central Virginia. Damaging winds will be the most common severe concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Hagerstown MD to 40 miles east southeast of Lynchburg VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

STW until 10pm

@weatherwiz Mesoscale Discussion 1570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/northern New York Concerning...Tornado Watch 517... Valid 101715Z - 101845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues. SUMMARY...Discrete storms in central New York will encounter increasingly favorable environment for tornadoes as the move northeast the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms have formed north-northeast of Binghamton. With the more dense cloud cover shifting northward, temperatures are beginning to rise into the low to mid 80s F ahead of these storms. Given the favorable storm mode and low-level shear near the warm front (effective SRH around 200 m2/s2 per objective mesoanalysis), the tornado risk with these storms will likely increase over the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

The tornado in W NY seems to have been on the ground for a while... I see three separate warnings from BUF with confirmed damaging tor on the ground

Mesoscale Discussion 1569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...South-central Pennsylvania...central Maryland...northern/central Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101652Z - 101845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered storms will pose a threat of mainly damaging winds and a tornado or two. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is in place across the Mid-Atlantic. Dewpoints are in generally in the low/mid 70s F. Morning observed soundings from the region suggest even limited heating would lead to surface-based destabilization. Current surface observations already show temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F which should be sufficient. Visible satellite shows a few updrafts beginning to deepen within the Blue Ridge. Modest mid-level ascent will occur this afternoon, particularly for northern Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania. Coupled with the approach of a cold front from the west, widely scattered to scattered storms are expected. The greatest potential for supercells will be in south-central Pennsylvania into central Maryland/northern Virginia where effective shear will be 35-40 kts. Farther south, multicells will be the predominant mode. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard this afternoon. A low-end tornado threat will also be present for northern Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania, where low-level shear will be slightly greater nearer to the surface low. This is also supported by KCCX/KLWX VAD data. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, though uncertainty is greater with southern extent. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

Watch coming soon