yoda

40/20 tor probs 30/30 hail probs 70/20 wind probs

Tornado Watch up TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2022 TORNADO WATCH 251 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WVC003-027-037-057-065-202300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0251.220520T1535Z-220520T2300Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY HAMPSHIRE JEFFERSON MINERAL MORGAN $$ TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2022 TORNADO WATCH 251 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-005-013-015-021-023-025-027-043-510-202300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0251.220520T1535Z-220520T2300Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY

MRGL risk for just north of DC into most of N and C MD on new Day 1 OTLK... best chance in PA where there is slight risk... 2/5/15

Sneaky severe Friday afternoon? Updated Day 2 OTLK discussion from SPC... right now it's just north of DC into N MD including Baltimore and S PA into NJ/DE... ..Mid-Atlantic... A remnant MCV from earlier convection should be present over PA at the start of the period Friday morning. Some strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop ahead of this circulation across parts of southern PA/northern MD into DE and southern NJ Friday afternoon. If convection can form, it would pose a threat for all severe hazards given gradually increasing instability and a favorable kinematic parameter space related to the MCV. Confidence in thunderstorms redeveloping is not particularly high, but there is enough of a signal in guidance to include a small Marginal Risk.

45 million SHIB and 100K DOGE... along with some ADA and GALA

Yes I have SHIB. And DOGE

000 NWUS51 KLWX 162206 LSRLWX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 605 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0513 PM HAIL 4 SSE CHESAPEAKE BEACH 38.63N 76.52W 05/16/2022 M3.00 INCH CALVERT MD COCORAHS && EVENT NUMBER LWX2203434

FWIW, 45 wind does include Baltimore

Woah... 45 wind added

Sorry good sir, first Day 1 OTLK is ENH with 5 tor, 15 hail. and 30 wind

Could be a fun week severe weather-wise reading the LWX AFD from this afternoon

You're going to make @weatherwiz lose his shit when he sees this

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A potent upper-level trough will dig from the Ohio Valley into our area Monday and the cold front associated with this system will pass through our region during the afternoon into the early evening. The wind field will increase significantly, causing moderate to strong shear (deep layer shear most likely around 40-60 knots). The increased shear combined with height falls, strong forcing along the front, and moderate CAPE enhances the threat for severe thunderstorms. Convection out ahead of the front is likely to be moving into the Appalachains Monday morning, and the strong to severe storms will most likely form along the differential heating boundary between that convection and growing instability to the east. This is most likely to setup near the I-81 corridor before storms intensify as they move east. Convection will likely develop into line segments with embedded supercells possible. Therefore, damaging winds and large hail are a concern. However, the surface flow will be backed (especially east of Interstate 81), so there is a tornado threat as well. Another round of convection is possible along the front, and given the shear profiles with falling heights some of that can be severe as well. However, confidence is much lower for this since the atmosphere may be worked over by widespread convection associated with the first round. There is also an isolated flood/flash flood threat with the convection as well. Faster storm motion suggests that threat will be limited, but FFG is low due to recent rainfall. Also, if bowing segments develop, the southern portion of the bowing segment could be parallel to the cloud layer wind for a period. If this does occur, that could enhance the flood/flash flood threat.

Surprise ENH I see for Day 2... 5/15/30

Who's ready for the first real heat wave next Saturday? Temps at DCA at 18z SAT: 12z Euro: 95 12z GFS: 93 12z CMC: 89

Sounds like we may finally be getting into some good severe chances next week per afternoon LWX AFD LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong cold front is forecast to pass through our region Monday into Tuesday. An accompanying strong upper level trough is forecast to drop southward toward our region from the upper Great Lakes region. Ensembles and deterministic models have the trough going neutral to slightly negatively tilted with the best forcing mainly focused over PA. Strong warm air advection ahead of the frontal passage will likely lead to CAPE values rising above 1000 with decent speed shear of 30 to 40 knots. The potential for shear above 40 knots and CAPE above 1000 as the front passes through our region may lead to an increased threat for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds. Based on the fact that shear will be unidirectional, the storm mode could be more QLCS vs cellular. There remains some uncertainty on the timing of the frontal passage and upper trough axis and whether it will occur during peak heating. Behind the frontal passage, high pressure is forecast to build back over our region through Wednesday leading to moderating temperatures and mostly dry conditions. A strong shortwave moving through a near zonal flow may bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region on Thursday. Warm air advection along with potential for some directional shear may lead to another threat for strong storms late Wednesday into Thursday.

No Crosby for Penguins tonight, no Wilson for the Capitals

That's pretty cool though tbh

Just a lil gusty storm BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 616 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Pope County in west central Minnesota... Chippewa County in west central Minnesota... Stevens County in west central Minnesota... Swift County in west central Minnesota... Northwestern Kandiyohi County in central Minnesota... * Until 700 PM CDT. * At 615 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Milbank to 6 miles southwest of Appleton to near Hanley Falls, moving northeast at 85 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR APPLETON AND BENSON. HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 608 PM CDT, Madison airport reported a gust of 94 mph. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Granite Falls and Appleton around 620 PM CDT. Maynard and Lake Oliver around 625 PM CDT. Clara City around 630 PM CDT. Hancock and Raymond around 635 PM CDT. Kerkhoven, Chokio and Cyrus around 640 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central and west central Minnesota. && LAT...LON 4575 9625 4576 9514 4533 9512 4489 9525 4489 9548 4477 9549 4477 9551 4480 9551 4491 9568 4491 9572 4493 9573 4495 9580 4516 9604 4518 9610 4541 9612 4542 9625 TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 213DEG 74KT 4517 9662 4514 9613 4471 9566 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 616 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Pope County in west central Minnesota... Chippewa County in west central Minnesota... Stevens County in west central Minnesota... Swift County in west central Minnesota... Northwestern Kandiyohi County in central Minnesota... * Until 700 PM CDT. * At 615 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Milbank to 6 miles southwest of Appleton to near Hanley Falls, moving northeast at 85 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR APPLETON AND BENSON. HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 608 PM CDT, Madison airport reported a gust of 94 mph. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Granite Falls and Appleton around 620 PM CDT. Maynard and Lake Oliver around 625 PM CDT. Clara City around 630 PM CDT. Hancock and Raymond around 635 PM CDT. Kerkhoven, Chokio and Cyrus around 640 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central and west central Minnesota. && LAT...LON 4575 9625 4576 9514 4533 9512 4489 9525 4489 9548 4477 9549 4477 9551 4480 9551 4491 9568 4491 9572 4493 9573 4495 9580 4516 9604 4518 9610 4541 9612 4542 9625 TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 213DEG 74KT 4517 9662 4514 9613 4471 9566 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH

I think the MCD for the watch explained it - here... so I guess that's where the number came from - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0739.html Mesoscale Discussion 0739 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota...far southwest Minnesota...and northwest Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208... Valid 122149Z - 122230Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO "MONTANA" INSTEAD OF "MINNESOTA" The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208 continues. SUMMARY...A very intense squall line will bring likely hurricane force winds across portions of southeast South Dakota into southwest Minnesota this evening. DISCUSSION...A well developed squall line has developed across Nebraska and has already produced multiple wind gusts in the 70 to 90 mph range over the past 1 to 2 hours. This line is moving over 60 knots and is moving into an increasingly favorable environment for severe wind gusts with MLCAPE of 3000 to 4000 J/kg, DCAPE of 1400 J/kg, and effective shear around 50 knots. All signs point toward a swath of high end wind damage across southeast South Dakota and possibly into southwest Minnesota. Widespread velocities of 90 to 100 knots are being sampled around 4000 feet across Yankton and Bon Homme counties as of 4:30 PM. This is the same region where several consecutive runs of the WoFS have shown a swath with ensemble maximum surface winds of 90 to 100 knots. Therefore, widespread 75+ mph winds are likely with some wind gusts approaching 100 mph possible. ..Bentley.. 05/12/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 519 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0500 PM TSTM WND DMG HURON 44.37N 98.22W 05/12/2022 BEADLE SD TRAINED SPOTTER NUMEROUS PINE TREES HAVE BEEN UPROOTED BY THE WIND. POWER IS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF TOWN.