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yoda

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  1. yoda
  2. yoda
    From the 00z NAM NEST at 19z just SW of DCA
  3. yoda
    00z HRRR seems a bit more ominous IMO, though it has numerous rounds of storms... one around 17z, another at 23z, then finally one flnal sweep at 01z/02z. The 23z ones look supercells that come up from the south 00z NAM NEST leans in the direction of the HRRR IMO
  4. yoda
    00z NAM has two rounds (both severe?)... one around 19z and another around 03z
  5. yoda
    Anyone else psyched to watch the new Star Wars series Obi-Wan?
  6. yoda
    Are we talking about like in 3 to 6 hours or like after sunrise but before noon? Anyway, MCD said they should weaken soon with loss of diurnal heating
  7. yoda
    Good disco by LWX this afternoon re the severe and flooding threat .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday will be an active day -- but not without caveats -- as a cold/occluded front and upper level low approach from the west. Expect two main foci (but not necessarily limited to) for shower/storm development: the first will be along the slowly eastward advancing low level jet/lead wave, and the second closer to the actual front and forcing from the main trough axis. Low level clouds may have difficulty clearing ahead of wave one, but models indicate the moisture rich airmass and diurnal heating could result in moderate instability near and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains by afternoon (this being a potential question mark). Ongoing convection will likely see some increase in intensity as it moves eastward. Even though instability and lapse rates may be lacking, sufficient deep layer shear ahead of the trough will be sufficient to result in storm organization. Damaging winds will be the primary threat due to the wind fields and potential for congealing into clusters, but some hail is also possible. Low level shear magnitude and low LCLs will also be sufficient for a tornado threat, although the mesoscale environment could potentially be messy. Forecast soundings are also indicative of a heavy rain threat with saturated profiles, precipitable water greater than 1.5 inches, deep warm cloud layers, and low MBE velocities with storm mergers and relatively slow eastward propagation possible. Compounding the threat will be the potential for multiple waves of storms. If the storm mode is too disorganized and widespread, it`s possible heavy rain and flash flooding will be the greater threat compared to severe storms. It`s a bit uncertain how much instability the second round of storms will have to work with, as it is not expected until late afternoon in the mountains and evening (should it hold together) east I-81. These storms have a conditional threat to be severe if the atmosphere can recover as shear will still be in place.
  8. yoda
  9. yoda
    ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... Although mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain generally poor, rich low-level moisture characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints will likely be in place ahead of the cold front. Even modest diurnal heating should contribute to MLCAPE generally ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, with somewhat greater instability forecast from parts of MD/VA southward into the Carolinas. Enhanced low/mid-level south-southwesterly flow associated with the upper low is expected to be in place from the Carolinas northward over much of the eastern Mid-Atlantic states ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear of 35-50+ kt will easily support thunderstorm organization, with a mix of multicells and supercells possible. Thunderstorms that will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning should gradually increase in coverage and intensity along/ahead of the front from late Friday morning through the afternoon. With a large southerly component to the low/mid-level winds, convection should tend to grow upscale with time into small bowing clusters as individual updrafts interact with each other. It appears that scattered damaging winds will probably be the main threat as thunderstorms spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and early evening given the messy and mainly multicellular mode. But, enough low-level shear should also be present in association with a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet to support a risk for a few tornadoes with any embedded supercells, particularly from central NC into VA/MD/DE, southeastern PA, and NJ Friday afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. The northern extent of the appreciable severe in NY and the Northeast will be heavily dependent on diurnal heating, the degree of which remains highly uncertain.
  10. yoda
    5% tor definitely was moved westward some on the 1730z SPC day 2 update... with DC metro now more in the middle
  11. yoda
    5/5/15 on day 2 morning OTLK from SPC
  12. yoda
    Haven't seen the phrase "violent thunderstorms" in an AFD from LWX in a while SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The stalled front to our south will begin creeping north as a warm front on Thursday. Early morning low clouds and drizzle may also slide north across southern Maryland and Tidal Potomac and farther into parts of the metro areas Thursday morning. As the day progresses, we should less and less of low clouds and drizzle as daytime heating should mix this out. The warm front will continue to march north during the day Thursday. Winds will become more southerly and increase both at the surface and a few thousand feet above the ground Thursday afternoon. With this increase in southerly winds comes an increase in low level moisture; thus, PWATs could rise quickly from 1.25 to near 2 inches from early Thursday morning through late Thursday evening. This moisture and increase in wind could set the stage for an increased threat for violent thunderstorms and possible flooding Friday into Friday night. The instability will increase through the day on Thursday with the added sunshine and warmth. Temperatures on Thursday will trend upwards with highs expected to reach the middle to upper 70s. A leeside trough of low pressure nearly in sync with a warm front pushing north of our region could be the zone in which showers and a rumble of thunder form Thursday night and mainly across the western zones. Showers and thunderstorms, some on the strong to severe side, could develop over the western zones Friday mid-morning and carrying eastward Friday afternoon with addition development into Friday evening. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding, while the more intense thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening could produce damaging winds and large hail. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday with dewpoint temperatures climbing into the middle to upper 60s.
  13. yoda
    Anyone else catch the error in that discussion? Didn't know EF-10 was weak lol
  14. yoda
    12z GFS was
  15. yoda
    Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 439 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 VAZ025-036>038-508-240445- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0004.220524T0300Z-220524T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Wintergreen, Staunton, Stanardsville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Waynesboro, and Stuarts Draft 439 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia and western Virginia, including the following areas: in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In western Virginia, Augusta. * WHEN...From 11 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Moderate to heavy rain is expected to overspread the Central Shenandoah Valley late this evening through midday Tuesday. One to three inches of rain are likely with locally higher amounts possible. This could potentially lead to instances of flooding of small streams and creeks. - Please visit http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood for safety information.
  16. yoda
    12z Euro says near 90 at 18z Monday... while 12z GFS has lower 70s at same time
  17. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm up
  18. yoda
    Hmmm... from the new Day 1 SPC OTLK this morning... its 0/5/5 right now with us in MRGL... but: Early this morning, a substantial amount of convection has progressed into the TN Valley and there is some indication a weak disturbance could evolve from the middle TN activity by sunrise. If so, this feature would progress northeast and likely contribute to renewed convection over the middle Atlantic later today. At this time will not extend SLGT Risk into MD/VA to account for this threat, as this feature may be more readily ascertained by late morning.
  19. yoda
    EF-3 with 150 mph winds
  20. yoda
    Reached 92... BWI did get to 96 I believe
  21. yoda
    at noon DCA 85 IAD 88 BWI 91 EZF 88 CHO 89 RIC 92
  22. yoda
    DCA hasn't really gone anywhere since sunrise... 82 at 11am... while BWI is already 89
  23. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1241 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... East central Allegany County in western Maryland... Northwestern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1240 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Barnes Gap, or 9 miles west of Hancock, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Hancock around 1255 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Little Orleans, Lineburg and Green Ridge. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
  24. yoda
    Tornado Warning for Allegheny County
  25. yoda
    ENH risk up... 30 wind on 1630z OTLK for E PA
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