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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Latest RWR as of 10am shows 70 degree DPs reaching just south of DC
  2. yoda
    More video of damage in Bedford county from possible TOR earlier this morning
  3. yoda
    And Baby Yoda?
  4. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 906 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Nelson County in central Virginia... The City of Charlottesville in central Virginia... Albemarle County in central Virginia... * Until 945 AM EDT. * At 905 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles south of Afton to near Spout Spring, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Charlottesville, Crozet, Shipman, Schuyler, Free Union, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Nellysford, Ivy, Arrington, Scottsville, Esmont, Lovingston, Allens Creek, North Garden, Covesville, Yancey Mills, Stony Point, Buffalo Springs and Flordon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central Virginia.
  5. yoda
    Rarity around here to see the word tornadoes in the LWX ZFPs... Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 735 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 DCZ001-VAZ054-271500- District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church 735 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 ...TORNADO WATCH 276 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning, then showers with thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall, then some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
  6. yoda
    The storm down SW of CHO seems to be strengthening... hail up to quarter size is now in the STW and continuous CG as well
  7. yoda
    LSR says tstm wind damage for right now 000 NWUS51 KRNK 271206 LSRRNK PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 806 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0725 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE GOODE 37.39N 79.36W 05/27/2022 BEDFORD VA LAW ENFORCEMENT DAMAGE TO RESIDENCES, TREES, AND POWER LINES IN THE AREA OF LANGFORD LN, BETHANY CHURCH CIRCLE/CROCKETT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
  8. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 755 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 VAC009-271215- /O.CON.KRNK.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220527T1215Z/ Amherst VA- 755 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM EDT FOR CENTRAL AMHERST COUNTY... At 753 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Naola, or 8 miles west of Amherst, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Damage has been reported per dispatch and scanner traffic in the vicinity of northeastern Bedford County.
  9. yoda
    Possible TOR damage being reported in NE Bedford County per scanner traffic and dispatch
  10. yoda
    It begins BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 754 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Nelson County in central Virginia... Southwestern Albemarle County in central Virginia... Southeastern Augusta County in western Virginia... The City of Waynesboro in western Virginia... * Until 900 AM EDT. * At 753 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pleasant View, or 7 miles south of Forks Of Buffalo, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Crimora, Sherando, Shipman, Schuyler, Wintergreen, Afton, Fishersville, Lyndhurst, Nellysford, Arrington, Esmont, Lovingston, Piney River, North Garden, Covesville, Yancey Mills, Tyro and Jonesboro. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm may cause serious injury and significant property damage. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central and western Virginia. && LAT...LON 3767 7897 3768 7897 3768 7898 3770 7898 3770 7903 3772 7906 3777 7907 3779 7909 3779 7911 3781 7914 3781 7915 3820 7884 3786 7855 3760 7893 TIME...MOT...LOC 1153Z 220DEG 38KT 3758 7922 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  11. yoda
    Yes indeed! What did you think about the trailer for Andor?
  12. yoda
    That storm that is currently TW'd in LYH should be entering the LWX CWA shortly
  13. yoda
    We do pick and stage at my work (I am at Amazon Delivery Station full time now at DDC3 in Springfield) from 9am to 1230pm every day... which is basically getting the bags and packages set and put on the vans for delivery... so apparently it has become my job to alert for any bad weather this morning so they can hold vans or bring in any drivers from outside for their safety if needed
  14. yoda
    I already had a message from work come through half an hour ago (after I had alerted them to the Tornado Watch) asking if I could monitor the weather and please let them know when any severe weather approaches (STW or TWs)... so I'm on my way to Starbucks soon for coffee lol Its my day off... but since the whole building knows I am a weather nerd and management knows I'm a storm spotter for the NWS... I get drafted to assess and assist for DDC3 operations
  15. yoda
    I dunno... the watches on 4/27 were big as well for our area and the 4 were all 40/20 probs. Probably overthinking it lol
  16. yoda
    True... just with the 50% of 2 or more tor probs on the watch I was thinking maybe. Granted watch probs don't translate to SPC OTLK probs, but would be interesting to see
  17. yoda
    Rare 10% tor probs on 13z SPC OTLK?
  18. yoda
    I know this is nothing like April 27 2011 at all.... but I was intrigued in seeing what the tor probs were on our tornado watches that day... the first was 40/20, second was 40/20... the third one was 40/20... and the final one was also 40/20. So... i don't think we have seen a 50 prob for 2 or more tornadoes in our region... unless someone says otherwise?
  19. yoda
    Nice call
  20. yoda
    50/20 tor probs are pretty beefy for a early morning tornado watch...
  21. yoda
    Already TW up down by Martinsville, storm moving NE... should be entering LWX CWA in about an hour
  22. yoda
    Tornado Watch issued till 2pm
  23. yoda
    @Eskimo Joe discussed this last night briefly @Kmlwx are you mehing now?
  24. yoda
    Making itself known... LWX describing the QLCS lol in their morning disco re threats today .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... Surface low pressure is churning just west of the Ohio Valley early this morning, showing up nicely on IR/WV satellite imagery. Extending eastward from the low is a cold front sliding south southwest into the lower Mississippi Valley with a warm front bisecting West Virginia and Virginia from west to east. This synoptic setup allows for the Gulf to be open for business in terms of moisture transport northward across the Southeast and the Mid- Atlantic. Surface dewpoints locally are in the low to middle 60s this morning, right on pace with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Skies are cloudy with a light southeast wind across much of the CWA. Precipitation so far this morning has been relegated west of the spine of the Blue Ridge Mountains, with scattered showers tracking northward. The remainder of the morning will feature increasing rain chances from west to east as the aforementioned warm front lifts northward and the surface low/front pushes eastward from the Ohio Valley. With the plentiful moisture in place thanks to the increasing southerly flow and low level jet, allowing precipitation to overspread the area. With the ample cloud cover in place and limited instability this morning, heavy rainfall appears to the primary concern the first half of the day as this activity pushes across the area. PWATs will range in the 1.5-1.75 range per latest model guidance this morning and early afternoon, pooling along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Given the anomalously moist airmass in place, the approaching cutoff upper low and PVA, as well as favorable MBE velocities, do see the potential for flash flooding this morning and early afternoon with the first round of convective showers/thunderstorms. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches, locally higher, will be possible in a short amount of time within the strongest activity, yielding flooding concerns. As such, we have issued a Flash Flood Watch for a good portion of our CWA, starting this morning across our southwestern zones, extending north and eastward including the metro areas closer to midday and lingering into this evening. With the increasing low level jet this morning, strong to severe storms will be possible, even if instability is a bit limited with cloud cover and prior shower activity. Increasing wind shear and low LCL's also provide a favorable environment to produce a tornado threat as well, particularly in any discrete cell structures that are able to form. Damaging wind gust do appear to be the primary threat given the wind field aloft, with the potential for isolated large hail as well. In the wake of this first round of showers/storms through mid afternoon, a secondary line of activity is expected to be focused along the front, making itself known during the late afternoon and evening hours as it crosses the region. A more organized QLCS structure is favored along the front, and is highlighted by the most recent hi-res guidance filtering in this morning. Damaging wind gusts again will be the primary threat with this feature, but an embedded spin-up cannot be ruled out. With the multi-threats on the table today, be sure to closely monitor the latest trends in the forecast, as well as having a way to receive warnings throughout the day and evening hours as the Memorial Day weekend travel kicks off.
  25. yoda
    5/5/15 on new Day 1 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for wind damage and possibly a couple tornadoes are expected to develop today from the Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the northern High Plains. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/New York/New England... An upper-level low will move east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the system, flow will be southwesterly at mid-levels across much to the Eastern U.S. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop to the east of the Appalachian crest today, as moisture advection takes place to the east of the trough. Surface dewpoints should be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F from the eastern Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Elevated storms or bands of rain may be ongoing at the start of the period along some sections of the Eastern Seaboard. Areas that remain somewhat clear of morning convection, should be able to heat up sufficiently for moderate destabilization. The latest model forecasts develop two corridors of moderate instability by midday. The first is forecast in eastern Virginia and Maryland, with the second located from southeast Georgia to central North Carolina. These two corridors will likely be favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts associated with multicell line segments. Supercells will also be possible, mainly from north-central North Carolina northward into southeastern Pennsylvania, where strong deep-layer shear will be present. A low-level jet of approximately 35 to 45 knots is forecast to move across Virginia during the day. This should increase low-level shear enough for a tornado threat with any supercells that can develop. The tornado threat could extend north-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic near the axis of the stronger low-level flow.
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