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yoda

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  1. yoda
    00z NAM and 00z NAM NEST look pretty good to me sim radar wise
  2. yoda
    Afternoon AFD from LWX suggests maybe some late night storms north of DC metro as well As we head into the overnight hours, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over western and central PA will try to push southeastward into western and central Maryland and parts of northern West Virginia. This activity, despite being in the middle of the night, could be on the strong side. Gusty winds and hail possible with this activity. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A strong cold front dropping southeastward out of the Lower Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley will slide across our region on Thursday and pass through the region Thursday night. Morning showers and thunderstorms may fizzle some and become more isolated and weaker. However, as daytime heating evolves and the front comes closer to the mid-Atlantic region, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of and along the cold front. The more persistent and heaviest thunderstorm activity should be from mid-afternoon through mid- evening, such as 2pm to 8pm. There could be two rounds of intense showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. One would be near or east of US 15 to the Chesapeake Bay and the second would be over the western mountains that would eventually propagate eastward during the course of the early evening hours. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail. A close second in terms of threats would be flooding rains due to training thunderstorms. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out later Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should exit the area by midnight Thursday night with high pressure building in Friday and Friday night. The high pressure will lead to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures just in time for the weekend.
  3. yoda
    DCA: 102 IAD: 100 BWI: 101 RIC: 102
  4. yoda
    Afternoon discussion from LWX about our next chance of severe on Thursday LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A strong cold front will dive southeastward from the Lower Great Lakes, across the eastern Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic region Thursday into Thursday night. A large amount of instability expected ahead of the front. Mid and upper level energy will be joined by a strong jet aloft to set the stage for potential strong or damaging thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. SPC currently has the eastern three-quarters of our region in a 15% threat for severe weather. There are timing issues once again as to when the strongest thunderstorms develop and move through the region. The GFS is 12 to 18 hours faster than both the NAM and EURO deterministic models. The GFS has the main event from mid-morning through late afternoon Thursday. The NAM and EURO have it mid- afternoon through about midnight. Nonetheless, whichever model you believe, the instability ahead of the front and the lift from the surface front, mid-level energy and jet aloft could cause for an active Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be a couple degrees above average, reaching the middle 80s with humid conditions.
  5. yoda
    Is this our first one of the year? Or did I miss one already from earlier this year? Also high probs across the board on everything
  6. yoda
    PDS maybe? Since the "higher end" wording? Mesoscale Discussion 0980 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Areas affected...extreme eastern SD into southern/central MN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 301906Z - 302030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for strong tornadoes and widespread intense gusts is increasing across extreme eastern South Dakota into southern/central MN. A tornado watch will be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A surface warm front over southern MN will continue to lift northward through the afternoon. Dewpoints will increase into the mid/upper 60s as this occurs, resulting in rapid destabilization with northward extent over the next few hours. Recent visible satellite imagery shows increasing/vertically developing cumulus across portions of southern MN to the south of the warm front. A recent RAOB near Tyler, MN indicated weakening surface-based and MLCIN with very steep midlevel lapse rates in place. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will support organized supercells, while strong forcing may tend to favor bowing segments, and a mixed convective mode is possible. Enlarged low-level hodographs evident in regional RAOBs/VWPs and forecast soundings show 30-40 kt 0-1 km shear amid enhanced low-level vorticity. This will support intense rotation with any discrete or line-embedded supercells, and a couple of significant tornadoes will be possible into early evening. Hi-res operational CAMs guidance and the experiment Warn-on-Forecast ensemble has been persistent in developing at least a couple of discrete supercells ahead of linear convection. While convective evolution/storm mode remains somewhat unclear, the overall parameter space will support storms capable of producing strong tornadoes and widespread intense (greater than 75 mph) outflow winds. A higher-end tornado watch will likely be needed within the hour. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR
  7. yoda
    My gripe with Obi-Wan is this: How did he not know Darth Vader was Anakin and that he was alive? When the 4th sister told him "He hasn't forgotten you! That's right, Anakin is alive..." it's like, um, is Obi-Wan that cut off from the Force that he didn't know? You see Obi-Wan struggling with the Force when he reaches out to save Leia when she is falling... so I guess that's its possible? And you see Darth Vader basically "come alive" in his bacta tank when he feels Obi-Wan's presence... so did he not know Obi-Wan was alive either? But the 4th sister as above, said that he hasn't forgotten about you... so... i dunno then? Did Yoda know before Obi-Wan went to Tattooine with Luke and didn't tell him?
  8. yoda
    Yikes Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service North Platte NE 929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 NEC071-089-300300- /O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220530T0300Z/ Garfield NE-Holt NE- 929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN GARFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES... At 929 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 13 miles northeast of Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 16 miles north of Burwell, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and grapefruit size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Carson Lake. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4193 9917 4204 9923 4207 9922 4208 9921 4219 9900 4194 9884 TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 247DEG 26KT 4202 9911 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...4.50 IN
  9. yoda
    21/10/6
  10. yoda
    Seems next threat for severe will be on Thursday of next week per afternoon LWX AFD
  11. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 837 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern St. Marys County in southern Maryland... West central Calvert County in southern Maryland... Southeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Eastern Charles County in southern Maryland... * Until 900 PM EDT. * At 836 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Golden Beach, or near Hallowing Point, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Prince Frederick, Golden Beach, Huntingtown, Hughesville, Aquasco, Benedict and Eagle Harbor. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
  12. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 830 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Calvert County in southern Maryland... Southeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Northeastern Charles County in southern Maryland... * Until 900 PM EDT. * At 830 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Golden Beach, or 7 miles west of Hallowing Point, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Dunkirk around 855 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lower Marlboro, Eagle Harbor, Aquasco, Hughesville, Bryantown, Huntingtown and Baden. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
  13. yoda
    Um, so you issue a SWS saying confirmed TOG over Dalghren at 806pm for TW in King George... and then 811pm issue another SWS saying that the warning will expire at 815 instead of reissuing?
  14. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 800 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Orange County in central Virginia... Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 845 PM EDT. * At 800 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mineral, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Orange and Spotsylvania Counties, including the following locations... Mine Run, Brokenburg, Parker, Snell, Alsop, Gold Dale, Gatewood, Thornhill, Logan and Glenora. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3801 7771 3803 7773 3802 7775 3805 7775 3805 7777 3808 7779 3808 7781 3811 7784 3810 7784 3812 7791 3812 7798 3814 7800 3814 7803 3833 7772 3822 7740 3801 7768 TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 227DEG 19KT 3800 7793 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  15. yoda
    TOR POSSIBLE added to the STW in NW VA in latest SWS update
  16. yoda
    They have a STWarning now... should have a TW shortly lol
  17. yoda
    On path to DC metro around 9pm Severe Thunderstorm Warning VAC049-065-075-085-109-280030- /O.NEW.KAKQ.SV.W.0087.220527T2340Z-220528T0030Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 740 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Louisa County in central Virginia... North central Cumberland County in central Virginia... Northwestern Goochland County in central Virginia... Northwestern Hanover County in central Virginia... Eastern Fluvanna County in central Virginia... * Until 830 PM EDT. * At 739 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Boswells Tavern to Kents Store to near Duncan, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Ferncliff around 745 PM EDT. Louisa around 755 PM EDT. Hadensville around 800 PM EDT. Mineral and Gum Spring around 805 PM EDT. Bumpass around 815 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Orchid, Dixie, Pendleton, Louisa Airport, Green Springs, Stage Junction, Zion Crossroads, Mabelton, Cuckoo and Caledonia.
  18. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 742 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central King George County in central Virginia... * Until 815 PM EDT. * At 741 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over King George, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... King George around 750 PM EDT. Dahlgren and Nanjemoy Creek around 805 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Ninde, Berthaville, Weedonville, Dogue and Lambs Creek. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
  19. yoda
    No Tuckahoe jokes either
  20. yoda
    45% ABV? Better only be a few shots lol
  21. yoda
    Mesoscale Discussion 0943 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Areas affected...central and southern Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279... Valid 272322Z - 280045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts, hail and a tornado or two continues with severe storms across parts of southern/central VA. DISCUSSION...Over the last 90 minutes, regional radar imagery showed a cluster of severe storms including several supercells becoming organized across parts of southern/central VA. Located within a pocket of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis, sufficient buoyancy exists to support robust updrafts for a few hours as storms track to the north and east. Co-located with the favorable buoyancy, area VAD VWPs show 40-50 kt of effective shear supportive of continued supercellular and short line segment modes being observed. Damaging wind gusts and some hail remain likely with the strongest storms as they are forecast to track northeastward into eastern VA and southern MD area over the next several hours. Additionally, subtle backing of the low-level southerly flow suggests somewhat stronger low-level shear as storms move north and east. This is also reflected by an increase in STP values to 1 on SPC mesoanalysis. A tornado or two will remain possible with the more dominate supercells inof the I-95 corridor over the next few hours. ..Lyons.. 05/27/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
  22. yoda
    Hmmm... outside the watch box this is BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 723 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... Southwestern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... South central Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 815 PM EDT. * At 722 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winchester, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Inwood, Stephens City, Middleway, Brucetown, Greenwood, Gaylord, Clear Brook, Ridgeway, Bunker Hill, Stephenson, Wickliffe, Wadesville, Summit Point, Cedar Hill, Albin and Stringtown.
  23. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 722 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Goochland County in central Virginia... Northwestern Henrico County in central Virginia... West central Hanover County in central Virginia... Northeastern Powhatan County in central Virginia... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 721 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Sabot, or 8 miles west of Tuckahoe, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Tuckahoe around 730 PM EDT. Wyndham around 735 PM EDT. Montpelier around 740 PM EDT. Ashland around 750 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Rockville, Gilman, Crozier, Fine Creek Mills, Johnsons Springs, Goodall, Elmont, Short Pump, Subletts and Vontay.
  24. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 706 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Caroline County in north central Virginia... Northwestern Essex County in east central Virginia... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 705 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Ladysmith, or near Milford, moving northeast at 25 mph. This storm has a history of producing a tornado near Beaverdam in Hanover County. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Milford around 720 PM EDT. Bowling Green around 725 PM EDT. Fort A.p. Hill around 730 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Rappahannock Academy, Supply, Villboro, Woodford, Guinea and Corbin.
  25. yoda
    This could reach DC metro in 90 mins or so... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 701 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Louisa County in central Virginia... Northeastern Cumberland County in central Virginia... Northwestern Goochland County in central Virginia... Fluvanna County in central Virginia... * Until 745 PM EDT. * At 701 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles west of Lake Monticello to near Centenary to near Dillwyn, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Fork Union and Lake Monticello around 715 PM EDT. Troy around 720 PM EDT. Palmyra around 725 PM EDT. Kents Store, Boswells Tavern and Lakeside Village around 735 PM EDT. Cartersville, Columbia, Duncan and Ferncliff around 740 PM EDT. Fife around 745 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Green Springs, Shores, Central Plains, Bremo Bluff, Cohasset, Waldrop, Tabscott, Trevilians, Hardware and Wilmington. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 757-899-2415, posting to the NWS Wakefield Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSWAKEFIELDVA. && LAT...LON 3806 7826 3813 7821 3814 7812 3815 7809 3792 7799 3767 7804 3758 7829 3764 7825 3769 7824 3774 7843 3776 7847 3780 7849 TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 240DEG 29KT 3790 7846 3773 7842 3758 7849 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
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