yoda

18z 12z

FWIW, 18z UKIE shifted NW with the snow totals and track of the SLP

Anybody going to be at the Pens/Caps game tomorrow? I believe I missed seeing @H2O last year

Looks like no Flowers again for the Ravens https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/43455125/ravens-not-ruled-our-wr-zay-flowers-knee-vs-bills

Hope I'm reading the model sounding right, but looks like good snow growth and decent DGZ for DC metro on 18z 3k NAM at hr 52?

I'll take the 3k nam please

Afternoon disco from LWX has important note about EURO AI SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An Arctic Front will reside in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday as kind of the middle piece of this leader-follower system. The leader system that impacted the area Saturday will leave the trailing cold front behind, but also bring the cold for the Sunday event. For the follower - the potential snow event across the area Sunday - models historically have issues with these set-ups. This case is no different with considerable differences in model guidance just ~40 hours out from the onset of precipitation. Synoptically, an UL trough will move eastward into the Ohio Valley Saturday night. A piece of energy will move ahead of this feature being one of the parts of this storm. The region will reside in the left exit region of a ~100 kt H5 jet. This is favorable for upward motion, as indicated by several methods including the long Q-vectors. Good agreement in FGEN bands across the area as well. It should be noted the differences between global models/ensembles. The CMCE/GEFS are notably more bullish than the EPS. Regional models split differences among themselves. Of note, the AI EURO has been consistent with 0.2-0.4" of QPF across the area for several days. This model tends to overdo the broader field of QPF at further lead times, but this signal is noteworthy based on latest verification research. Given the potential for 5" of snow (6" in the mountains), have coordinated with neighboring offices and WPC in a Winter Storm Watch for climo favored areas. Have concerns about mixing further southeast towards the metros coupled with lower ratios. The current snow forecast will likely change, so please monitor the latest forecast for updates.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1200 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 MDZ001-501-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-180100- /O.NEW.KLWX.EC.A.0001.250120T0900Z-250123T1200Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Highland-Western Grant- Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- 1200 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 ...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...An extended period of temperatures up to 30 degrees below normal. Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero possible. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero are possible for higher elevations. * WHERE...In Maryland, Extreme Western Allegany and Garrett Counties. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From late Sunday night through Thursday morning. * IMPACTS...Periods of dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures. An extended period of well below freezing temperatures could cause ruptured water pipes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside. To prevent water pipes from freezing, wrap or drain or allow them to drip slowly. Keep pets indoors as much as possible. Make sure outdoor animals have a warm, dry shelter, food, and unfrozen water. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

Wes would take this run

I'm worried about the Penguins winning

Probably tomorrow morning in the 4am package if there are any

Don't bother with the 12z CMC unless you are in W MD

Ugh, management just texted me saying what's this about snow on Sunday...

Please sir, I want some more

I'd love another WSW storm... but I'm fine with another 2" at the least

If I'm guessing the scale right... pink is 0.5"+

Sort of falls apart after... but still some snow

426am AFD from LWX A relative lull is expected Saturday late afternoon and evening as the initial Arctic front pushes to the east and a wave of surface low pressure goes with it, at least outside of the mountains, where snow looks to continue. A second wave of low pressure will take shape over the TN Valley, which will become our Sunday winter storm. Precipitation chances continue to increase on Sunday with guidance trending towards a snowier solution areawide. At least a light accumulating snowfall is becoming increasingly likely across most of the forecast area as a fast-moving, yet potent, low pressure system slides by to our south. The arctic front Saturday will have ushered in sub-freezing air to much of the region by the time of precipitation onset. There may be some thermal issues towards southern MD and the VA Piedmont, but for the most part, looks like an all snow event for many. Initial forecast amounts are in the 1 to 3 inch range in those areas where thermal issues may exist at the onset, with 3 to 4 inches seems most likely along and north of I-66/US-50. The upslope areas will of course see substantially more, and over a bit of a longer timeframe. For most, this system will be very quick-moving, lasting around 6 to 12 hours or so.

Will folks want to pay attention?

I guess I wasn't thinking when i posted that I liked hr 69 on the 18z GFS

I like the look at 69

18z ICON was going to be even more suppressed lol.

18z ICON did make a noticeable shift NW though in its QPF field compared to 12z

RGEM steadfast though... unfortunately you have to be NW of i81 corridor