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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Should move eastward a bit as we continue to have heating IMO
  2. yoda

    Winter 2022-23

    yoda replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    I know this is more SNE-centric... but they really do have great disco in here about upcoming winter... really good discussion about everything and a really good read
  3. yoda
    1630z disco ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... An active severe-weather day is expected across the region, with essentially all convective modes/hazards possible. Steady large-scale height falls, along with a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies, will occur via the approach of the upstream trough over Ontario. Upstream regional 12z soundings/upper-air data sampled 50+ kt mid-level winds early this morning over Lower Michigan into Illinois (and likely Indiana). A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is in place across the Northeast, where daytime highs well into the 80s F and dewpoints near 70F will yield MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg with little capping inversion. General thinking remains that thunderstorms will form this afternoon along an approaching cold front, initially from western/northern New York into northwest Pennsylvania into eastern/central Ohio, with additional development possible within the warm sector in vicinity of the mountains and/or lee trough. Low-level winds are not forecast to be particularly strong, but favorable deep-layer shear and degree of instability suggest that discrete supercells will be possible, capable of very large hail and possibly a few tornadoes. This activity will spread east/southeastward during the afternoon/evening especially across the Enhanced Risk area that includes much of New York and Pennsylvania. Upscale growth into short bowing segments can be expected as storms spread toward additional parts of the Mid-Atlantic this evening, although a more stable air mass will likely persist for coastal areas.
  4. yoda
    Yup re SLGT risk... moved south a tad along i95 coprridor and now includes all of W VA
  5. yoda
    I could see the SLGT risk being moved south another 50-100 miles or so on the 1630z OTLK... down the i81 corridor towards CHO... ENH risk maybe just a tad nudge south too
  6. yoda
    For all you youngins
  7. yoda
    12z NAM NEST goes nuts from DC metro to BWI metro from 00z to 06z
  8. yoda
    Saw this on twitter... so thought I'd share
  9. yoda
    Updated morning AFD from LWX .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cluster of storms continues to move across far northeast MD. Given recent radar imagery and trends upstream, main threat is for a brief period of soaking rain. The 12Z RAOB from IAD had a PW of just under 2.0" indicating an anomalously moist airmass. Issued a heat advisory for portions of the eastern panhandle of WV, western MD, and northern Shenandoah Valley. A similar setup as yesterday should result in criteria being met for several hours this afternoon (heat indices of 100-104 degrees). The anomalously high dew points as of mid-morning in the mid 70s have already resulted in heat index values in the mid 90s in this area. If outdoors today, stay hydrated and practice heat safety. See weather.gov/heat for more info. Regarding the severe weather potential today, there are two periods of interest. The first is from late this afternoon into this evening along a lee pressure trough. High res guidance has trended in a more robust environment this afternoon from US-15 east with sfc CAPE of 2000 J/kg+ and deep layer shear of 35-45 kts. Should any storm form in this area/environment, it could quickly become severe posing a damaging wind and large hail threat. These storms would also likely be efficient rain producers due to the anomalously moist airmass, though storms should remain progressive to some extent. The second period of interest is late this evening into the early parts of tonight. A cold front will be positioned across the southern Great Lakes. Storms will develop along the Lake Erie lake breeze and progress southeast. Uncertainty arises with the areal extent of the storms in part due to the warm air aloft since these storms will not be on the actual cold front. Will continue to monitor this potential as storms approach the region from Pennsylvania. Additionally, the timing of this approaching convective activity may be after peak heating.
  10. yoda
    Well that's not a super helpful 12z IAD sounding per SPC site... anybody have a better one? Says everything is M except for a few things
  11. yoda
    Clearing here with nice sun
  12. yoda
    13z SPC OTLK now includes all of N VA north of around EZF and includes BWI/DC metro in SLGT risk... 2/15/15 5% TOR now includes C and W MD and E WV into extreme NW VA
  13. yoda
    Those are some ridiculous soundings once again on the 18z NAM for 21z THUR to 03z FRI (but particularly 00z FRI aka Thursday night at 8pm)
  14. yoda
    Seems like our next chance for severe storms is tomorrow night per the afternoon LWX AFD
  15. yoda
    Ji hasn't canceled winter yet?
  16. yoda
    So... Wednesday maybe? Lol Or maybe Thursday?
  17. yoda
    Very disappointing after watching earlier this evening into the night
  18. yoda
    Day 2 10 percent hatched tor in most of C WI into UP of MI
  19. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The western Maryland Panhandle Extreme southeast Ohio Southwestern Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Tuesday morning from 1245 AM until 600 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-developed squall line with bowing characteristics will likely persist for a few more hours in a zone north of prior convection across West Virginia. Damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the main threat, though isolated large hail may also occur for the strongest embedded updrafts.
  20. yoda
  21. yoda
    11pm OBS across the region has DPs in the 72-76 range for most stations across VA/DC/MD
  22. yoda
    weee BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1104 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Putnam County in west central Ohio... South central Paulding County in west central Ohio... Van Wert County in west central Ohio... West central Allen County in west central Ohio... * Until 1145 PM EDT. * At 1104 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Convoy, or near Van Wert, moving southeast at 35 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM!. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Van Wert, Delphos, Convoy, Ottoville, Ohio City, Middlebury, Middle Point, Fort Jennings, Scott, Venedocia, Elgin, Wetzel, Tipton, Cavett, Dull and Jonestown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm has produced widespread wind damage across Allen county Indiana with 100 mph winds reported at the Fort Wayne airport at 1040 pm EDT. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! &&
  23. yoda
    STWatch issued for much of Ohio until 3 am with 80/60 wind probs URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 361 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central, northern and east central Ohio * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1000 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms will continue to move quickly east-southeastward across Ohio through the early overnight hours. The environment is favorable for swaths of damaging winds up to 75 mph, and the strongest embedded storms could also produce isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter. An isolated tornado or two may occur with embedded circulations.
  24. yoda
    @Weather Will posted it in the disco thread instead of in here lol
  25. yoda
    Tasty
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