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yoda

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  1. yoda
    New watch up for WI/IA/IN/IL until midnight CDT
  2. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 528 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 MDC003-033-052145- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-220705T2145Z/ Anne Arundel MD-Prince Georges MD- 528 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL ANNE ARUNDEL AND EAST CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES COUNTIES... At 528 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Bowie, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Anne Arundel and east central Prince Georges Counties, including the following locations... Prince Georges Stadium, Riva and Glenn Dale. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3895 7680 3899 7677 3895 7659 3886 7673 TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 309DEG 21KT 3895 7675 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  3. yoda
    Did I miss an image or number?
  4. yoda
    Confirmed TOG over Bowie
  5. yoda
    Tornado Warning for Anne Arundel and PG counties BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 521 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Northeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 520 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Lanham-Seabrook, or near Bowie, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Woodmore around 525 PM EDT. Bowie and Kettering around 530 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Prince Georges Stadium, Glenn Dale and Riva. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. &&
  6. yoda
    Am I using the Radarscope tilts right when I say that rotation looks better on the higher tilts with that storm?
  7. yoda
    Picking up speed moving SE per latest SWS Beltsville to Goddard area looks like decent rotation
  8. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0438.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and central Iowa Southwest to south-central Minnesota Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Long-lived bowing MCS across southeast South Dakota will spread east-southeast across parts of eastern Nebraska, western and central Iowa and far southern Minnesota with severe wind gusts. Additional cells ahead of it will pose a threat for hail and wind. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Denison IA to 40 miles southeast of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
  9. yoda
    Meso/rotation tag on Radarscope just appeared there
  10. yoda
    Maybe a little rotation by Cloverly?
  11. yoda
    Guess we should watch and see what happens back in WI/IL/IA later in tonight
  12. yoda
    Jesus Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 SDC045-049-059-069-107-119-051730- /O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-220705T1730Z/ Edmunds SD-Hand SD-Sully SD-Hyde SD-Faulk SD-Potter SD- 1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN EDMUNDS...NORTHWESTERN HAND...NORTHEASTERN SULLY... NORTHERN HYDE...FAULK AND EASTERN POTTER COUNTIES... At 1203 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Brentwood Colony to 11 miles north of Holabird, moving east at 40 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR NORTHERN HYDE COUNTY. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. These severe storms will be near... Brentwood Colony around 1210 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include Norbeck, Blumengard Colony and Faulkton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4469 9983 4530 9961 4529 9889 4451 9932 TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 280DEG 34KT 4517 9936 4469 9956 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH
  13. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A derecho with embedded significant severe wind gusts appears probable from central to eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa into this evening. ...SD to IA and southern MN... An intense cluster over central SD will likely persist east-southeast across southeast SD. This should evolve into a forward-propagating linear MCS, expanding in latitudinal extent as MLCIN further diminishes ahead of it. A large MLCAPE reservoir in excess of 3000 J/kg across southern SD/MN and northern IA will support potential for embedded significant severe wind gusts exceeding 75 kts. While the majority of CAM guidance appears to be egregiously poor (especially the HRW-FV3) with handling the conceptual model for this event, the 12Z HRW-ARW and NSSL are in the ballpark and suggest bowing linear segments will be maintained into southern MN and northern IA before weakening this evening.
  14. yoda
    2% tor introduced on 1630z OTLK
  15. yoda
    They just did on the 1630z OTLK and large 30 wind hatched with 45 wind as well
  16. yoda
    Its almost like it breaks up the line into supercells as it enters MD/N VA/DC by 20z
  17. yoda
    Looks like 00z HRRR is trying to develop some discrete activity ahead of the bow echo/line at 18z/19z
  18. yoda
    I am gathering we are watching the area where SPC just issued a STWatch, correct? The IA/IL/IN area?
  19. yoda
    STWatch issued till 3am CDT/4am EDT -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0432.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 805 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells will continue to develop this evening from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, and eventually northwest Indiana/southern Lake Michigan. Storms may merge into a linear east/southeastward-moving cluster by late evening, with increasing potential for damaging winds and possibly an embedded brief tornado risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Dubuque IA to 50 miles southeast of Racine WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
  20. yoda
    23z HRRR has a line setting up at the end of its run (17z TUE) in Western PA with what looks to be embedded sups (I think... could just be intense portion of the line forming) and storms initiating in the i81 corridor
  21. yoda
    FWIW, 21z RAP sim radar looks good... squall line crests Apps around 17z... reaches i95 corridor around 19z tomorrow afternoon 18z HRRR looks decent for tomorrow too around 19z
  22. yoda
    Good discussion by LWX in their afternoon AFD regarding tomorrow afternoon SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A warm front is expected to slowly lift northward through the region late this evening and into Tuesday. An upper level ridge will be in place over the upper plains with weak troughing over the eastern US on Tuesday. As the warm front lifts northward through the region on Tuesday, a southerly flow is expected to form leading to increased advection of warm and moist air into the region. The orientation of upper level ridge over the upper plains will place our region in a favorable location for shortwave energy to pass over the ridge and drop down into our region. Model guidance has continued to indicate that CAPE values will be well above 2000 j/kg with shear progged to be between 30 and 40 knots. Multiple waves/shortwaves moving along the boundary may lead to multiple waves of thunderstorms during the afternoon periods on Tuesday. HiRes guidance continues to differ about the threat for severe weather on Tuesday especially on the overall coverage of storms. Based on the environmental setup, any storms that do form will likely become strong to severe and potentially produce damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado. A westerly flow at 850mb could affect storm coverage and mean the difference between bowing segments and isolated supercells. We will need to monitor upstream activity which could affect the initiation of storms over our region. Model guidance may not come into good agreement until later this evening and we will need to monitor HiRes guidance to determine overall SVR threat, whether it be bowing segments or super cells or a minimum threats. A westerly orographic enhanced flow along with multiple shortwaves could lead to enhanced precipitation along the western Alleghenies and flooding.
  23. yoda
    Apparently there was a tornado in last night in Grand Island NE... in a stratiform rain shield
  24. yoda
    12z HRRR was... interesting for tomorrow afternoon 12z NAM NEST isn't bad either for both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon/evening 09z RAP at distance is also decent
  25. yoda
    That was a pretty tasty afternoon AFD
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