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yoda

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  1. yoda
    I wasn't really counting on a tornado threat tomorrow... but LWX has it in their afternoon AFD SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will approach from the Great Lakes region Tuesday. A low pressure trough of low pressure should set up on the leeside of the mountains late Tuesday morning and into the afternoon. Winds will increase out of the south to south- southwest, leading to increasing warmth and humidity where temperatures will climb into the 90s with dewpoint temperatures punching into the lower to middle 70s. This will be the fuel for the thunder that is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening as the cold front approaches the region. CAPE values will rise into the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The combination of this CAPE and some added wind shear as mid-level energy sweeps in from the northwest will get developing thunderstorms to possibly become severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing any one of the severe weather aspects such as flooding downpours, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. SPC has the northeastern one-third of our region in the Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. Depending on additional model data late this afternoon and this evening, this area may be brought farther south and east into eastern Virginia and parts of southern Maryland. The timing on any severe thunderstorms on Tuesday will be from mid- afternoon through early evening, especially for the metro areas. The actual cold front should pass through the region later Tuesday night, perhaps an hour or two before daybreak on Wednesday. Afterwards, the front could stall near the Virginia and North Carolina border on Wednesday.
  2. yoda
    Looks like Tuesday afternoon may be our last chance for some storms or even severe storms for the next 10 days or so -- from this afternoon's AFD: With southerly flow and moisture return ahead of a cold front Tuesday, temperatures will soar toward the low 90s for most locales. PWs will increase through the day to near 1.75-2" east of I-81 by the evening. Profiles show a decent overlap of CAPE in the -10 to -20C layer on soundings, so there could be a large hail threat in combination with a damaging wind threat in any thunderstorm. There could be two rounds of thunderstorms: 1) Along a lee-side pressure trough near and east of the Blue Ridge and 2) With the frontal boundary itself. There is also noteworthy shear for this time of year (40-50 kts of bulk shear).
  3. yoda
    What are the ARIs that LWX AFD talks about?
  4. yoda
    Before Isabel weakened to a Cat 2... I was very concerned for the Mid Atlantic considering it was an annular Cat 5 for a while. It's only a matter of time before DC gets visited by a 1933 Chesapeake Hurricane redux
  5. yoda
    @WxUSAF has turned on the drought magnet
  6. yoda
    DPs are already in the low 70s out... yuck
  7. yoda
    Morning AFD update from LWX as of 1035am NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Latest surface analysis show a quasi-stationary front stalled near the VA/NC border with a cold front draped across the Great Lakes. The stationary front will gradually lift north through the day and into tonight and eventually interact/collide with the approaching cold front. Through the early afternoon, the local region is going to be positioned between two shortwaves with subsidence. Guidance continues to suggest showers and thunderstorms develop on the lee-side pressure trough late this afternoon as a weak shortwave moves through. These showers/thunderstorms then slowly advance to the northeast, posing an isolated flood/flash flood threat for any storms that train over the same area. Uncertainty in coverage and placement of the lee-pressure trough and therefore the thunderstorm placement is somewhat uncertain. Current thinking is anywhere from the Shenandoah Valley to east of the Blue Ridge. Any thunderstorm is capable of producing gusty winds. As the aforementioned frontal boundaries begin to merge nearby, a line of convergence will develop overnight. A stronger shortwave with low-level to surface based broad low pressure will move over the frontal boundary this evening into the overnight. This low will continue advancing along the front through Saturday. PWs will be near record levels for the day, with widespread 2-2.5" values (2-3 SA above climo). The WCL will be high (above 4 km), with a high FZL indicating warm rain processes will be dominant. Given the forecast low-level forcing, the PWs in guidance seem realistic. There are two variables leading to some uncertainty: 1) The amount of instability (generally 100-750 J/kg) and 2) The spread in models with where exacting the positioning of the front will be and the amount of low-level and fgen forcing present with the low as it moves nearby. Should the higher magnitudes of forcing be realized, a higher-impact heavy rain event would be plausible, however should the lower magnitudes of forcing come to fruition, this may be more of a beneficial light to moderate soaking rain. The area of greatest concern remains over the largely hydrophobic Baltimore/Washington Metro areas. FFG is lowest in this area. Will continue to assess latest 12Z guidance before making any headline considerations.
  8. yoda
    Closer view
  9. yoda
  10. yoda
    12z FV3 Hi-Res is for DC metro
  11. yoda
  12. yoda
    12z NAM NEST still drops 3 to 5 in DC metro into S MD
  13. yoda
  14. yoda
    FWIW... that's some heat on the 18z GFS in the Day 10 to 15 range
  15. yoda
    1-3"
  16. yoda
    18z GFS likes BR to i95 corridor for the heaviest rains... 18z 3km NAM is i81 corridor... 18z NAM is basically everyone lol 18z RGEM likes W into C MD with a E WV panhandle bullseye
  17. yoda
    Afternoon disco from LWX about the threat SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Confidence is increasing in a potentially high impact heavy rainfall event Friday night into Saturday morning. A slow-moving cold front remains situated over the region, meanwhile a reinforcing cold front will be pushing in from the NW. Additionally, a potent shortwave will be sliding by overhead during the Friday night into Saturday timeframe. This results in almost all guidance developing a low either overhead or very closeby. There will also be an abundance of low-level convergence given the two frontal boundaries colliding as well. Almost all guidance dumps heavy rainfall over some portion of our region especially after midnight on Saturday morning. The question still remains as to exactly where this occurs. A lot of the uncertainty is related to exactly how the system evolves to our northwest. Flash flooding will certainly be a concern, especially given the antecedent conditions as a result of the heavy rainfall over the past several days in different parts of the region. The QPF forecast has come up greatly, and it is anticipated that our ERO category from WPC will likely expand and/or increase in coverage with the afternoon update. In addition to the flooding rainfall threat, starting to grow a bit more concerned with the severe thunderstorm threat as well. Timing will be key with this system, and if it comes through a bit slower into Saturday, could even have some decent CAPE to work with. The environment will be very well-sheared with the frontal boundaries nearby and decent upper-level support. Most concerned with a few damaging wind gusts, and perhaps even an isolated tornado along the boundary itself. The majority of the rainfall should be to our south by Saturday afternoon as the front marches south. However, given the remaining uncertainties, going to keep some chance POPs in the forecast for now as things can and likely will change to some degree.
  18. yoda
    Hmmm... sneaky severe tomorrow? SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As the initial front continues to sag on Friday, it will likely start to be pushed along by a stronger cold front later Friday into Saturday. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible both Friday and Saturday afternoons and evenings. Given some of the recent rainfall totals in the early 12z guidance late Friday into Saturday morning, flooding is starting to become a real concern. There is still a lot of uncertainty with exactly what happens though given ongoing MCS`s potentially moving into the area or nearby. Lots of moving parts to take into account. Some guidance even brings in a remnant MCV into the region and tries to spin up a low along the stalled frontal boundary. Guidance is really struggling to pick up on much instability obviously given the time of day, but should this occur at the right time (perhaps even into the day Saturday), we could be looking at an isolated severe threat as well. Again, lots of uncertainty here, but some guidance has a conditional tornado threat on Saturday should that above scenario play out, so it is something we are watching. For now, now outlook from SPC, but may have to revisit that with the overnight update should that trend continue. For now though, given the antecedent conditions coupled with any slower moving, training showers and thunderstorms, flooding/flash flooding appears to be the primary concern. This is highlighted by WPC`s Excessive outlooks in the D2 and D3 periods. May be looking to collaborate some changes there if the 12z guidance continues to come in bullish on precipitation amounts. Hoping for some more details with the afternoon package, but keep an eye on the forecast for any significant changes.
  19. yoda
    PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 930 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0533 PM TORNADO 1 N BOWIE 38.98N 76.73W 07/05/2022 PRINCE GEORGES MD NWS STORM SURVEY STRUCTURES DAMAGED ALONG WITH TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED, AND POWERPOLES SNAPPED. AT THIS TIME, THERE HAVE BEEN NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF INJURIES. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 90 MPH. A COMPLETE PNS WILL BE ISSUED WEDNESDAY JULY 6TH, WITH MORE DETAILS. && CORRECTED REMARKS...SOURCE EVENT NUMBER LWX2204101
  20. yoda
    PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 554 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0533 PM TORNADO 1 N BOWIE 38.98N 76.73W 07/05/2022 PRINCE GEORGES MD 911 CALL CENTER STRUCTURES DAMAGED WITH INJURIES REPORTED NEAR ANNAPOLIS RD AND SUPERIOR LANE && EVENT NUMBER LWX2204101
  21. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 616 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... South central Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... * Until 645 PM EDT. * At 616 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Deale, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Shady Side and Deale around 625 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lothian, Friendship, Tracys Landing and Galesville.
  22. yoda
    In furtherance of the post above Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 606 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 MDC003-052230- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220705T2230Z/ Anne Arundel MD- 606 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY... At 606 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Shady Side, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Anne Arundel County, including the following locations... Galesville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3886 7648 3882 7649 3880 7651 3884 7654 3889 7651 3886 7647 TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 293DEG 22KT 3884 7648 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  23. yoda
    A lot of our weather over the next few days is going to be tied to what happens out there IMO
  24. yoda
    New TW issued... off duty NWS met reports seeing funnel cloud BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 544 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Northeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 544 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Londontowne, or near Bowie, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...An off duty meteorologist reported a funnel cloud. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Mayo, Shady Side and Rhode River around 600 PM EDT. Deale around 605 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Harwood, West River, Davidsonville, Tracys Landing, Lothian, Galesville, Riva and Edgewater. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3875 7651 3873 7651 3872 7652 3877 7662 3889 7675 3899 7666 3886 7647 TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 305DEG 23KT 3889 7665 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  25. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0440.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a weak boundary. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds late this afternoon. A fast-moving bow echo over northwest Iowa will approach parts of the watch area by early evening, resulting in an increased risk of widespread damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Waterloo IA to 35 miles north of Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
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