yoda

Besides the isolated strong storm Tuesday to Thursday... sounds like Friday could be quite active per the afternoon LWX AFD: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A strong upper level trough axis is forecast to pass over the Great Lakes region on Thursday and shift eastward into the NE US by this weekend. A surface low associated with the upper trough is forecast to remain well to the north over eastern Canada but it`s associated front is forecast to drop into our region sometime late Thursday into Friday. Ahead of the frontal passage, warm and humid conditions will lead to an increasingly unstable environment. Weak shortwave energy ahead of the frontal passage combined with the unstable environment will lead to a chance for showers and strong thunderstorms on Thursday. The better chance for more widespread strong thunderstorms will likely be on Friday when forcing from the frontal passage will combine with decent mid level shear and SFC CAPE above 1500 j/kg. If favorable shear and CAPE matches up well with the frontal passage, our region could see a busy day for severe weather.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 409 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0341 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ENE CHARLOTTESVILLE 38.04N 78.45W 07/25/2022 ALBEMARLE VA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE DOZENS OF TREES, WIRES, AND LARGE BRANCHES BLEW DOWN JUST EAST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE IN THE PANTOPS AREA. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2204533

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 424 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0245 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNE LEESBURG 39.14N 77.55W 07/25/2022 LOUDOUN VA 911 CALL CENTER SEVERAL TREES BLEW DOWN AROUND LEESBURG, INCLUDING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF US-15 JAMES MONROE HIGHWAY AND VA-740 TUTT LANE. TREES BLEW DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF VA-703 HURLEY LANE AND MOUNTAIN CREST LANE. TREES BLEW DOWN ON VA-9 CHARLES TOWN PIKE AND VA-662 CLARKES GAP ROAD. && CORRECTED REMARKS EVENT NUMBER LWX2204537

Pantops and Lake Monticello were crushed in Albemarle County into Fluvanna County... numerous wires, trees, and power poles downed

Warrenton AWOS gusted to 58kts (67mph) at 340pm - this is Warrenton Airport in Fauquier County

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 338 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 VAC003-252015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0335.000000T0000Z-220725T2015Z/ Albemarle VA- 338 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY... At 338 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Charlottesville, moving east at 20 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Charlottesville, Campbell, Cismont, Boyd Tavern, Monticello, Keswick and Shadwell. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3794 7837 3800 7848 3803 7845 3803 7846 3805 7845 3806 7845 3805 7846 3807 7845 3806 7826 TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 271DEG 16KT 3803 7838 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

CHO storm has destructive tag on it in SWS Warned for ping pong ball size hail and winds to 80mph

I figure we'll get an MCD soon

I see mostly sunny skies at work this morning

That's a nasty looking h5 in lala land of the 00z GFS tonight

12am temps DCA - 85/71 IAD - 83/72 BWI - 86/73

From updated evening AFD from LWX SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Heat Advisory extended south/southwest to Spotsy and Orange Counties, as METEZF has 101F as a high tomorrow, and 18Z ECMWF has and area of the north central piedmont centered around Culpeper...Fauquier and Stafford Counties reaching 102F.

DCA to 41 mph

I'm seeing 94?

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 651 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Western Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Central Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... East central Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 650 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Paramount-Long Meadow to near Berryville, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Hagerstown, Thurmont, Charles Town, Emmitsburg, Shepherdstown, Municipal Stadium, Purcellville, Robinwood, Brunswick, Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, Ranson, Berryville, Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Braddock Heights, Paramount-Long Meadow, Mount Aetna, Round Hill and Mount Lena. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

There were 2 rotation markers on two parts of the line cresting the Apps on Radarscope

18z GFS pushes upper 90s tomorrow afternoon along i95... possibly reaching 100 Close to 100 again on Saturday... brings 100-105 across most of the region on Sunday

Toasty

12z GFS brings some relief in the afternoon Sunday showing storms on radar reflectivity at 21z SUN... reason being it breaches the ConvT of 102 degrees But at 18z, PW has DCA at a toasty 103 degrees

12z CMC at DCA 18z SUN is 100/70... yuck. HI around 108

Some of the zones now have highs around 100 in them for parts of the LWX CWA... and a few have heat indices approaching 110 in them as well

00z UKIE has 96 at DCA for both 18z SUN and 00z MON... so I would guess upper 90s 00z CMC has 98 at DCA for both 18z SUN and 00z MON... so I would guess it breaches 100 sometime in between those hours

00z GFS says toasty for Sunday... 105 for DCA 00z ICON has 100 to 103 along i95 from BWI to EZF

12z GFS still breaks 100 at DCA Sunday... then brings back the heat last few days of July into August 12z Euro says 101/102 at DCA for Sunday... must be a front nearby on Monday as it's low 100s at EZF but low 80s in W MD