yoda

Day 6 SPC OTLK

Seattle has traded Metcalf to the Steelers https://www.profootballrumors.com/2025/03/seahawks-steelers-agree-to-d-k-metcalf-trade#ref=home https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1898883556031475713

Borrowing this from the Tennessee Valley forum

@Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe Of course the usual caveats... but LWX AFD this afternoon already mentioning concern for severe thunderstorms next weekend LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather will prevail through the end of the week. A backdoor front will slide north to south Wednesday, then lift back north as a warm front late Thursday. There is an outside chance of a shower as the front lifts back north at the end of the week. A powerful area of low pressure and strong associated cold front will develop over the Plains later this week, then track east by next weekend. Current guidance has a strong FROPA next Sunday. Increasing moisture ahead of the front combined with increasing low-level winds raises concerns for severe thunderstorms, but the magnitude of the threat will depend on the exact timing of FROPA and how much instability is able to develop.

Day 8 mention in this mornings SPC day 4 to 8 disco

Wow, Maryland women got destroyed in the 1st half... then got close, then destroyed in the 2nd half

The Capitals are set to acquire pending UFA winger Anthony Beauvillier from the Penguins, per Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. They’re sending their 2025 second-round pick to Pittsburgh in return, Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic reports. After losing Jakub Vrána on waivers to the Predators yesterday, Washington had an open roster spot, so they won’t need to make a corresponding move. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2025/03/capitals-to-acquire-anthony-beauvillier-from-penguins.html#ref=home

Now if we can only get rid of this wind nonsense... URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 244 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ053-054-501-502- 505-506-526-527-061545- /O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0009.250306T1300Z-250307T0500Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 244 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, north central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Can't wait till next Tuesday for 70s

We'll see... some pickup in lightning and warned cell in W MD

Just had loud thunder

Been so for almost an hour now

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1226 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 100 PM EST. * At 1226 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of Stafford, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Lake Ridge, Montclair, Roseville, Triangle, Dale City, Independent Hill, Garrisonville, Quantico, Ramoth, Woodbridge, Dumfries, Cherry Hill, Heflin, Aquia, Storck, Holly Corner, Occoquan, Glendie, Hartwood, and Ruby. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3834 7760 3839 7762 3842 7765 3850 7766 3872 7738 3871 7737 3873 7736 3870 7732 3871 7730 3866 7722 3866 7720 3864 7722 3863 7720 3863 7714 3861 7718 3862 7722 3849 7731 TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 226DEG 48KT 3844 7756 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0027.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 27 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Maryland Eastern/Southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1025 AM until 600 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A convective line is expected to continue eastward/northeastward into more of eastern/southeastern VA and southern MD over the next several hours. Strong wind fields across the region will support the potential for damaging gusts within this line. A low probability for a brief tornado or two also exists

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 27 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC009-017-019-037-039-045-047-052300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0027.250305T1525Z-250305T2300Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER SOMERSET ST. MARYS WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-085-087-097- 099-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-137-145-147-149- 159-177-179-193-570-630-670-730-760-052300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0027.250305T1525Z-250305T2300Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK AMELIA BRUNSWICK CAROLINE CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX FLUVANNA GLOUCESTER GOOCHLAND HANOVER HENRICO KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUISA LUNENBURG MATHEWS MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY ORANGE POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WESTMORELAND VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE COLONIAL HEIGHTS FREDERICKSBURG HOPEWELL PETERSBURG RICHMOND

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for S MD and C VA in the LWX CWA

HCPS to Dismiss 3 Hours Early TODAY, WEDNESDAY, March 5, 2025 Harford County Public Schools, schools and offices, will close 3 hours early today, Wednesday, March 5, 2025. While weather is unpredictable, this early closure is necessary as the current weather forecast includes 40-60 MPH gusts of wind during dismissal hours. As you know, many students utilize our bus transportation and these weather conditions would make it unsafe to transport students during regular dismissal hours. All field trips are cancelled. All afterschool/evening activities are cancelled. 3/5/2025 9:15:27 AM

We'll see what's left of it when it gets up here... but watching that stuff down by Roanoke moving NE. TWs and STWs up down there

Maybe where you are, but its nearly 60 at IAD/DCA

Sounds like tor watch coming soon https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0146.html Mesoscale Discussion 0146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...much of central South and North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051222Z - 051445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The environment is beginning to rapidly change, and a ramp up in severe storm potential is likely. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes may develop through midday. DISCUSSION...A strongly forced line of convection continues to push east across the western Carolinas and southeast GA this morning, with strong gusts on the order of 40 kt common with this wind shift. Although bulk CAPE values are currently low, this will likely change over the next few hours, as low-level moisture streams in from the south. Local radar indeed shows showers now evident in a north-south streamer off the ocean. As the front interacts with the moistening air mass, conditions will continually become more favorable for rotation within the line, with brief tornadoes and damaging winds expected. Shear is extremely strong with 0-1 SRH over 500 m2/s2 over the entire region. Further, as pockets of heating develop, additional more discrete supercells may develop, most likely during the afternoon and perhaps to the east of this early day regime. ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

Pretty cool jersey tbh https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2025/03/04/capitals-cherry-blossom-jerseys-screaming-eagle-50th-anniversary/

LWX AFD from this morning on the dual threat tomorrow SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Come tomorrow, attention will turn to a very potent storm system approaching the area from the west. As of early this morning, low pressure is in the process of rapidly deepening over the Central Plains. This area of low pressure will track northeastward toward the Great Lakes tonight into tomorrow, while eventually deepening into the lower 980s hPa. A powerful upper level trough will accompany this system, with a large closed low developing in the mid-levels. Winds will be very strong through the depth of the troposphere in association with this system, with a low-level jet at 850 hPa strengthening to around 60-80 knots. A band of showers and thunderstorms is in the process of developing now over the Southern Plains. This area of showers and thunderstorms occurring coincidentally with the strong warm advection in association with the core of the low-level jet will race eastward across the southern US today, eventually approaching the area from the southwest later tonight. This activity is expected to weaken into primarily stratiform precipitation by daybreak tomorrow as it starts to move into southwestern portions of the forecast area. As this area of precipitation coincident with the core of the low-level jet/strong warm advection at low-levels progresses east of the mountains tomorrow morning, it will encounter an airmass with slightly higher dewpoints, which may lead to reinvigoration of the convective line late tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon as it moves across the area from southwest to northeast. Surface based instability appears to be minimal (100 J/kg or less), if existent at all, but most CAMs show an impressive squall line developing toward the back edge of the precipitation shield as very strong synoptic scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper trough arrives. As this occurs, a very strong wind field will be in place, with 60-70 knots at 850 hPa. Model soundings show very long, curved hodographs, with ample SRH. Such an environment raises concerns that damaging winds and potentially even a QLCS tornado or two may possible as the convective line moves through the region. SPC currently has us outlooked with a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms to account for this potential. The aforementioned band of showers and thunderstorms will exit off toward the north and east along with the core of the LLJ by mid-afternoon, with a mid-level dry slot overspreading most of the area from southwest to northeast. Additional surface heating will occur within this mid-level dry slot as clouds clear out, resulting in the development of surface based instability within a still highly sheared environment. With the best synoptic scale ascent moving off to our north and east, questions remain regarding how much development of additional showers and thunderstorms will occur behind the first round of showers and storms. However, if storms were to occur, they`d potentially be supercellular in nature (given very long, straight hodographs), and capable of producing both damaging winds and hail. It currently appears as though western portions of the forecast area would have the best chance of seeing storms with the second round later tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening, as they`ll clear out first and have the longest duration of surface heating. They`ll also have greater forcing at low-levels as a pre-frontal trough, and eventually the surface cold front move in from the west late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025