Understanding you are using statistical probabilities based on assumptions it will be a Nina but so much can change over the next several months not sure it’s worth discussing. Except for the fact it gets on Mersky’s nerves.
Northern DE averages 6 inches in Jan- 20 for the winter. You have had above normal snowfall 6 of the past 7 winters. Who cares if it didn't happen in January? No rule it has to happen that way. There is no historically bad run