Chrisrotary12

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

They aren’t though.  Folks are just latching on to the scenarios they want and then get disappointed.  

Like I’m not going to say they are terrible because two runs of the GFS gave me 2 feet at day 5.  You have to throw out the outliers.  

This. Thank you. Thank you very much for saying this.

Selfishly rooting for this thing to rip up through New York state. Driving north on 93 Friday evening from Nashua to Lincoln. Ice storm = do not want.

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lot of divergence on guidance (and within their own ensembles) for next week....could literally be 60F or snowing and 20F next Wednesday/Thursday.

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see the difference between the 00z EPS and the 12z EPS on the midweek setup...fwiw, most other guidance is trending like this too. So we'll have to see if that continues or trends back the other way

 

 

 

We all know where this is headed. Congrats Montreal.

I don't even have the energy to be upset about this winter. If it's going to suck. Let's just move on to Spring shall we. 

I'm determined to get back into fishing. Been about a decade since I really went. So the quicker spring can get here, that'd get me closer to that.

The change in that northern stream vort overnight was impressive. Clicking through the 00z Euro I legit muttered "What the hell was that?"

She gone!

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

wut?  I'm pretty sure it was posted that they were an improvement from 00z and 06z.

Looks pretty much the same to me.

12z EPS not coming northwest is disappointing.

Best I can tell quickly, the biggest change the Euro made was the handling of the 1st northern stream vort. Instead of wrapping it up on Dallas, it comes in much weaker and just floats through the midwest. Toggle 06z.72 versus 12z.66.

The Weather Channel says "No Chance"

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Could happen?  But those are never likely.

Sure. The lead vort that comes out of Mexico is such a piece of crap that it barely has an impact.

Impressive change with respect to the Northern Stream vort. But we're going to need a Boxing Day style comeback on this one.

12 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I was just beginning to make plans for Superbowl Sunday.........have to try to remember: one is an aberration, two is a coincidence, three is a trend. Lets wake up tomorrow with the EPS looking this good.

Looks like 18z EPS was an aberration. Pretty good model agreement from overnight runs. Two of the pieces of energy are still over the northern Pacific south of Alaska if I follow them backwards correctly. There may still be hope.........

I was just beginning to make plans for Superbowl Sunday.........have to try to remember: one is an aberration, two is a coincidence, three is a trend. Lets wake up tomorrow with the EPS looking this good.

12z GFS is exit stage right with the Day 4 & Day 11 system.  We on to spring yet?

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z eps are coming in east of the 00z run. 

00z EPS looked great. 06z EPS was a let down. Really wish something besides the UKMET & 00z GFS would jump on board. 

Is everything onshore with 12z tomorrow's soundings?

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like the overall look a 114 hours on the GFS...the southern stream is in the mix but not bonkers and you have the potent N stream diving in to set it off. Regardless of what happens on the run verbatim, that's the overall look you want to see. Happens on several of our biggies including Feb 2013.

That potent northern stream diving in, but not turning north until Bermuda is disappointing.

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Thinking 12-18", lollis to 24" for SE MA.

Can always adjust up as needed.

6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

I mostly follow their tweets, don't really watch them on TV.

I think this is more what I was thinking when I made my statement.

And to help keep us on topic. I don't hate the ensemble look either. At least this time we're not rooting for it to stay underneath us.  Much prefer wishing for a NW trend than praying for it to trend southeast.

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You would think with 12 SWs, two of them would have to run into each other in a dark ally lol

I want the northern stud breeding...

Can that northern stud just scoop up all of the others ones?

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Good thing nobody watches that station. 

Do people (especially those here on the board) still watch the news for weather forecasts?

I mean, good luck trying to figure this out.

We're on to spring?

21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It's impressive to me how the level of model agreement (at least in the OPs) is decreasing with time.

I don't know diddly about the data assimilation mechanics of the individual modeling systems, but when the system was over the eastern Pacific and really only being sampled by satellite, we had pretty good agreement. (look at 00z Tue runs for example).

But as soon as the system came onshore of the west coast and presumably was sampled by the radiosonde network, the goal posts between the individual modeling systems seem to be widening. Definitely from an OP perspective and a bit from an ensemble perspective. The GEPS is way west compared to EPS and GEFS (00z suite).

It's impressive to me how the level of model agreement (at least in the OPs) is decreasing with time.

EPS definitely ticked north with the ULL.