Chrisrotary12

My apple weather app never said it was going to snow. So I guess we should have known.

Amazes me that this thread continues to grow by 5-8 pages every time I check in.

It never even gave us a chance!

I’m not sure why folks are complaining about the model guidance and stating “they can’t figure it out”. Across the board there is unanimous agreement on the double low scenario and a whiff for all but far eastern areas. Now should the storm significantly impact the majority of the forum, then we can bemoan the inability of the guidance to resolve the event at a 72 hr lead time. I suppose we should give it till 00z Sunday before writing off?!?

Is it possible to show trend GIFs with the off hour runs removed?

This is so unbelievably dumb. Hooray record high gas bills.

Too bad it’s probably real and we’re cooked.

Boxing Day

Are EPS LP tracks are product anywhere? Would be curious which of these are the primary from NC coast and which are the convective Bermuda bound.

Question.... can we take that Euro run seriously? It has a 1001 mb LP off the NC Coastline at 72 hours. 12 hours later, that same LP hasn't move but is 977 mb... hooray bombogenesis. At the same time that convectively induced LP off Bermuda is nuking and 6 hours later it is 967 mb heading for landfall on Nantucket. 6 hours later, the NC LP is now sub 970 and skirting east towards Bermuda while the convective LP dies off ACK. Then suddenly at 102, we have a 965 mb beast looping near ACK. Like WTF is going? Fujiwara effect I suppose but my god.

On mobile, but that trough is positively tilted. Maybe neutral.

This actually happens in all models. At hour 66 they are initiating cyclogenisis in the Bahamas in response to the southern stream energy moving through the gulf. This then rips northeast ahead of the northern stream bowling ball paving the way for the escape e-ne.

How anomalous is this set up though? As the lobe drops into the U.S. it is oriented positive 90 degrees E-W. Tilting negatively to a neutral N-S orientation. Most of our troughs start out slightly positive and tilt to a slightly negative orientation. The CIPS analogues show big hits because those bowling balls over the southeast are in the process of tilting negatively past N-S neuteal and climbing the coast. Wheras this system has already tilted negatively 90 degrees which only gets us to neutral. Thus the escape is primarily east-northeast versus north-northeast. Do I think it is going to snow? Yes. But probably not because the whole thing comes north, but rather the models are under predicting the expansion of the precipitation shield as the storm occludes and drifts.

Wasn’t complaining but stating storm ended up being a good one. Thank you for measuring. I’m too lazy. Can’t believe we got near 20.

Yep. Give me a 990mb LP over a 960mb LP all day.

It’s definitely a unique setup. The vort max drops due south from Hudson Bay to Atlanta and detonates off Charleston, SC.

I’d like to propose a new storm rating scale: Post Storm Cleanup Street Quality Index (PSC SQI). Can alway tell the biggies from the quality of the street the morning after it stopped snowing and the plows stopped cleaning. The messier the street, the more severe the storm. What a mess, nearly busted my ass three times doing end of driveway. No pavement in site.

Just counted…. ASH observations registered 39 straight hours of snow. That’s definitely something I probably won’t see again.

Yes. We need this thing to keep gaining latitude like that storm did. As shown, it’s an occluded mess as Scott said.

April Fools 1997…. The appendage in Plymouth County…. I was 6 but remember having more than 14” in Brockton. Can anyone confirm? Deny?

A left hook into NYC and rain?

Best dendrites of the storm

So that’s what a dendrite looks like!

Canadian does seem more realistic from an upper atmospheric perspective? It keeps the bowling ball chugging whereas the Euro and GFS anchor it off Hatteras.

Dare I say… could use some confluence to our northeast….