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weatherbear5

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Everything posted by weatherbear5

  1. weatherbear5
    For what little it’s worth, the 18z NAM is much less aggressive with heights along the East Coast
  2. weatherbear5
    Yeah. Surface will be probably be colder than progged since winds are probably more northerly than indicated Mid levels though? Most sad
  3. weatherbear5
    It’s painful. You look at the 24 hour panel on tidbits and it looks so glorious for the entire forum. If only it was 12 hours faster so as to not allow the blocking to escape
  4. weatherbear5
    He’ll be right for the wrong reasons, but yes. It’s a curse
  5. weatherbear5
    GFS VERBATIM, is predominantly snow for central Long Island, based on soundings I would give it a 5% of verifying that way though. The models ALWAYS under-do warm air intrusion in the mid-levels
  6. weatherbear5
    Yup. GFS more amped and with higher heights. At this point, we hope for a front-end dump to drizzle at the coast
  7. weatherbear5
    I’m going with 2-8 across Long Island with the front-end stuff, most in NW Suffolk and northern Nassau where there’s a little elevation, least along the immediate south shore and eastern Long Island
  8. weatherbear5
    Yup. The confluence exited stage right. Without that, there was nothing to prevent the stronger shortwave from raising heights ahead of it. Only hope is a hellacious front-end dump
  9. weatherbear5
    Slowed down too much + confluence exiting = bad news for the coast At this point, we hope that the front end dump is intense and anything after it is minimal. You can still get several inches of snow from this kinda thing, but it won’t be 12-18 Sad, this was looking so promising for so long
  10. weatherbear5
    Warmer than 18z
  11. weatherbear5
    No italics. 6/10 impression
  12. weatherbear5
    Doesn’t mean diddly without knowing the thermals as much as I would like it to be all snow
  13. weatherbear5
    If you look at the NAM and just run through the past several runs, the HP trends stronger and stronger each run
  14. weatherbear5
    Is it chasing convection? Or is it a result of a brick wall of confluence
  15. weatherbear5
    Heights slightly higher along the east coast through hr 48 vs 12z in addition, the S/W is much sharper over western Kentucky gonna try to come NW a little bit, methinks
  16. weatherbear5
    Through 36, 500mb would seem to indicate GFS will tick northwest a bit
  17. weatherbear5
    Link/picture?
  18. weatherbear5
    That is the 12z run. the origin date for some reason is changing from 18z to 12z at hour 49
  19. weatherbear5
    The ULL is stronger, but heights are being squished ahead of it. The confluence is strongeR edit: also, as pointed out, less interaction between the shortwaves
  20. weatherbear5
    NAM coming in... a bit early to call, but looks like it may come in south of 12z
  21. weatherbear5
    A bit early to call... but I think the NAM may come in a bit further south than 12z
  22. weatherbear5
    Yeah, I agree. He just said 700 which I took literally, but it’s probably just below that in reality haha
  23. weatherbear5
    Looks to me like the warmest 700mb gets on LI is about -5C? Def much colder than the 6z run
  24. weatherbear5
    Euro is gonna be interesting... a few conflicting signals... higher heights along the east coast, but the 50/50 low is in a better spot which should, in theory, help to better lock the high in place
  25. weatherbear5
    I can almost guarantee it’s under-doing CAD there. Models NEVER handle that right
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