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weatherbear5

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Everything posted by weatherbear5

  1. weatherbear5
    In the wise words of my girlfriend, “size isn’t everything”
  2. weatherbear5
    Sandy was a HUGE storm with a huge wind field, this is a relatively tiny storm with a small wind field, not surprised the waves are much smaller that stationary rain band was what I was worried about. LBI looks like it’s getting hammered
  3. weatherbear5
    If this thing does end up stalling like the NAM suggests, wherever those bands pivot and train over are gonna be in trouble… I think there’s at least a chance that happens over the island, which is where my comment about “severe flooding” from before came from of course, it could also stall with the bands north of the Island as well
  4. weatherbear5
    I’d wager someplace on the Island will see a foot plus of rain
  5. weatherbear5
    I’m beginning to get VERY worried about severe flooding on the Island… this could be very bad… And with that threat, even if winds aren’t that strong they could still take down trees
  6. weatherbear5
    Well yeah, my point was at this point in time it wasn’t crazy. With that being said, it looks as good as it has structurally, and convection is finally starting to burst in the southern half of the eye wall… need to watch this closely since if it does manage to strengthen rapidly it would change the equation
  7. weatherbear5
    18z GFS had it at 984 at 00z, doesn’t seem like it was unexpected
  8. weatherbear5
    Let’s see if that deep convection that fired in the southern eye wall can wrap around the eye. Seems like it may be trying to ward off some dry air. If it can do so, it still has some room to strengthen
  9. weatherbear5
    Deep convection just fired along the southern edge of the eye. We’re not out of the woods yet when it comes to potentially strengthening
  10. weatherbear5
    Pretty much right on the Nassau/Suffolk border starting to accumulate on the driveway now
  11. weatherbear5
    All snow here in NW Suffolk doesnt appear to be sticking to anything attm though
  12. weatherbear5
    Yeah. Water on ice = crazy correlation coefficients
  13. weatherbear5
    I think you’re confusing the mixing ratio line with the 0C temperature line
  14. weatherbear5
    Looking at soundings, that could easily be FRZA
  15. weatherbear5
    On Tidbits it’s only “model derived”. That map is 10-1 also, it only seems to show rain and snow. 2-M temps are below freezing verbatim, even on the Island until after 12z Tuesday
  16. weatherbear5
    The scary thing about this setup is that models are notoriously bad at estimating WAA above the surface and CAD at the surface Methinks this has the makings of the biggest ice storm a lot of areas have seen in a while, particularly at the coast Heres hoping it trends colder aloft for more sleet or snow than FZRA
  17. weatherbear5
    That high is in a perfect spot to lock in cold air at the surface. That’s the look of an ice storm right there, unless we can get the mid levels to cool
  18. weatherbear5
    Also, with that banana high to the north, be wary of surface temps being warm on the models... 99% of the time winds are more northerly than the models show, and therefore colder temps
  19. weatherbear5
    We need more of the PV to stick around because we NEED that confluence to keep this from cutting. You have a beautiful split-flow which will result in strong high pressure to the north, but without that confluence it becomes a risk for a major ice storm Energy from the Pacific rotates in and pulls the PV, elongating it and eventually opening it up and sending it into the North Atlantic. If we can keep that anchored over Quebec, it will allow the low to cut under us, rather then into the Lakes that’s the difference between, say, the 12z GFS (cutter) and 12z CMC (coastal)
  20. weatherbear5
    Pouring snow in northeastern Northeastern Nassau
  21. weatherbear5
    Lots of heavy precip lining up near KDIX radar. If extrapolated, looks like it’s heading towards the western half of the Island for the moment, but should spread the love eastward with time
  22. weatherbear5
    Maybe it’s just the weenie in me, but the radar down by DC doesn’t look so bad
  23. weatherbear5
    Yes, like I said, an ugly run. Slightly weaker, slightly east, less heavy precip. Idk what you want from me lol
  24. weatherbear5
    It’s more like 9 hours, and more like Suffolk County has the severe mixing issues verbatim on the RGEM for the first 2 hours Once the heavier precip moves in it flips everyone at the coast to snow. Problem is there’s not a ton of heavy precip around at all on the RGEM. Ugly run for sure
  25. weatherbear5
    RGEM looks slightly weaker, slightly SE, and less precip. Though it’s tough to get exact numbers on that CMC collar page
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