Shenanagins1091

Another season in the books - hoping for some more stable weather soon to get in on the YFT bite

Hurricane and typhoon numbers are decreasing, study finds, even as they become more destructive | CNN A very interesting read here

I am not a big fan of people measuring a hurricane season based on dollars. Everything cost more every single year - houses, properties, cars, boats, etc, and then there is just simply more 'stuff' at the coast year over year. Not really surprising the financial cost increases. I live on the coast and I take our environmental concerns very seriously, but just do not like the idea that total cost of storms = worse hurricane season than XYZ year - if that makes sense.

Wasn't everyone complaining this was a weak nothin burger? Typical internet. Prayers for those in the area being affected

I wonder where NWS gets the 6" comes from, even with kuchera ratio still haven't really seen more than 3-4.7" on any models. We shall see maybe they are onto something. 2-5" feels like such a solid call for everyone.

Been following along for weeks here, it's pretty cool how even in December we knew 1/5 to 1/22 would be a good period. I don't see the 4-6" happening as an amateur, none of the guidance really shows it unless you start nit picking around for stuff like the HRRR using kuchera ratio. 2-4" is such a solid bet for PHL S&E and maybe 3-5" N&W, ready to lock that in.

Not sure why everyone hates the GFS. I stuck with the old gal and feel pretty good about what I told folks since it played out basically perfect per my expectations. Guys like WXrisk and EPAWA plus kuchera map weenies are to blame for pissing people off. This wouldn't be considered a bust if people weren't told to expect a foot or more when they got 8"

It played out as expected in most places like I said. Don't really care about CNJ, only really look at PA, SNJ and DE since those are where my friends and family are. Cannot really comment on CNJ sorry. I did tune into the local channels and alot of them just didn't really mention the mixing anywhere except the shore. There's a feel to weather forecasting, it's not all pretty maps. NWS erroneously called for up to 12" in spots in SNJ and all but guaranteed a foot at a minimum in alot of SE PA. Never bought in, didn't buy in to the storm that wasn't before Christmas either. People will never learn either!

Eh, my personal predictions of 5-10 Philly s&e and 7-14 n&w look great. I didn't hug the Euro and kuchera ratios like some did. Certain models always had the precip being mixed for lengthy periods of time right into PHL, but it did go a little bit further than inland than expected. It's only a bust if you hugged the wrong models and maps and ignored others.