msuwx

I think more important, or at least just as important, than the shear is the exceptionally dry air over the western Gulf. So far, Milton has largely fought it off. See how long it does.

I also am interested to see how quickly this weakens. A lot of mesoscale models really show this thing dramatically falling apart as it nears landfall. Big time.

Interesting dichotomy between radar presentation (which still looks quite healthy) and the significantly degraded satellite presentation.

Not surprising. You can usually 'subtract' a category from the intensity impacts for a weakening system. It will be interesting to see how this survives. I think it is going to emerge quite weak from the Yucatan since it was weakening and hit land at the 'wrong' time. Yucatan can often take quite a toll on systems. I always think of Isidore (2002)..... it lost its inner core of the Yucatan and never got it back.

Port Royal/ Kingston could take a really rough hit from storm surge I would imagine, especially if the center tracks near or just south. Shape of the topography would only hurt in this scenario.

Writing off 21 days with tons of arctic air in the pattern is an interesting position.

Clearly seems to be beginning an ERC which will probably help the wind-aspect of this system for coastal Florida. Also, if that is the case, could cause weakening once inland a little more quickly than expected.

Biggest takeaway is that it came in way, way stronger at 500mb than the previous run. I mean a lot stronger. Exactly how that closes off, and how the vort energy causes the ULL to wobble, to make a big difference for folks in the western Carolinas.

Stronger system, much more pronounced warm nose ahead of it at 60-63 hours. ULL is much deeper at that point over MS/AL compared to 6z.

This (12z) NAM run looks like it will turn out fun.

Folks complaining about the overnight runs must not have been paying attention this winter. At least it's something.

Not exactly correct.

The Euro took a big step west with the diving energy in the Plains compared to its 0z run. Significant adjustment IMO. 0z: 12z:

6z GFS is definitely still a hit of snow for a lot of the region. But yes, it is a later, further east phase/ digging.... not what most would want. 6z compared to 0z: