msuwx

This storm is yet another example of why I never issue my own accumulation forecast, post, or publically show any model accumulation maps on air until at absolute earliest, 48 hours ahead of an event. In many ways, I miss the very old days where all of this data wasn’t available to all of the masses. Just opens the door for fear-mongering, hyping, and click-baiting. I honestly don’t know if I would have developed my love for weather as a child as I did in this current environment as it is today.

Don’t have a great scientific answer for you about the warm noses. It’s just been very difficult of late to get an old school true Miller A type of system. Regarding Atlanta, they got lucky that the forcing set up where it did. Good for them. Just absolute luck of the draw with how this system unfolded.

As a weather nerd, I always find it fascinating watching the various processes at work in the atmosphere causing varying precipitation types and the changes between them.

That is freezing rain. Rain when the temp is below freezing.

From my experience, Gulf convection that is 'positively tilted' like that can actually enhance the moisture transport northeastward. What you don't want is the convection to race out ahead of the system and it take on more of a neutral or negative tilt orientation. Don't know if that makes sense or not. I'm tired.

HRRR hasn't been bad.

That leading band stretching from ATL into SC will mean a lot. Latest NAM completely dissipates it as it tries to push into NC.

Best start in a couple of decades! Yes, you definitely take notice. Even though there are different geographic processes in play here versus there, if the model’s initialization and early frames are already off by a significant amount it has to translate to some extent in the later hours.

There was a storm a while back in which the NAM was way, way more pronounced/ aggressive than most other modeling with the warm nose. I largely discounted it, got badly burned, and vowed to never discount it again. So, here we are again. I think the RGEM is a very good winter weather model with a good track record around here, so I will keep leaning my forecast away from the NAM as long as it holds sway with its colder temperatures aloft. But it's concerning.

And many other places in the GSP FA went slightly higher. But yes, it’s all negligible and well within the noise range.

Just a big bowl of no.

Agreed. CMC is a very good model with CAD situations. It’s idea has some validity even if it might be a touch over done.

I think more important, or at least just as important, than the shear is the exceptionally dry air over the western Gulf. So far, Milton has largely fought it off. See how long it does.

I also am interested to see how quickly this weakens. A lot of mesoscale models really show this thing dramatically falling apart as it nears landfall. Big time.

Interesting dichotomy between radar presentation (which still looks quite healthy) and the significantly degraded satellite presentation.