famartin

In central NJ the benchmark ice storm was Jan 7 1994. Very pretty. Was lucky to not lose power but lots did. Would like to see something like it again... Including the not losing power part of course

IAD did good yesterday... I had 1.75" nearby so seems close.

You missed the 1.6" on 7/8/2015.

Yes, but IAD, DCA, etc are ASOS's maintained by NWS, while JYO, OKV, etc are AWOS's maintained by someone else (FAA or the state DOT usually)

AWOS's have a history of warm biases, be careful using it.

Ocean water temps probably have something to do with that.

Here are the odds for all months: November - 2% December - 14% January - 32% February - 33% March - 18% April - 3% That adds up to a bit over 100 because I counted the cross-over storms between months once for each month (double count).

BTW, this calculates to an 18% chance that the biggest snow of the winter will be in March.

1967-1977 was even worse.

Someone was aghast that PHL might get their biggest snowfall in March. So, I put together these stats to show, its not *that* uncommon. 1884-1885 6.9 on Feb 24-25 1885-1886 9.3 on Feb 3-4 1886-1887 5.0 on Jan 5-6 1887-1888 10.5 on Mar 12 1888-1889 2.0 on Feb 25 1889-1890 3.0 on Mar 31-Apr 1 1890-1891 3.5 on Mar 3 1891-1892 6.0 on Mar 16-17 1892-1893 10.4 on Jan 5-6 1893-1894 4.3 on Feb 25-26 1894-1895 7.3 on Feb 7-8 1895-1896 3.3 on Mar 23-24 1896-1897 7.1 on Dec 16 1897-1898 4.5 on Jan 10 1898-1899 17.7 on Feb 12-13 1899-1900 11.2 on Feb 17-18 1900-1901 3.2 on Jan 25 1901-1902 11.0 on Feb 17 1902-1903 6.8 on Feb 16-17 1903-1904 6.8 on Jan 29-30 1904-1905 9.1 on Jan 24-25 1905-1906 6.0 on Feb 8-9 1906-1907 12.5 on Feb 4-5 1907-1908 6.8 on Jan 23-24 1908-1909 6.0 on Dec 22-23 1909-1910 21.0 on Dec 25-26 1910-1911 9.2 on Dec 5-6 1911-1912 4.7 on Jan 12 1912-1913 7.5 on Dec 24 1913-1914 8.0 on Feb 13-14 1914-1915 19.4 on Apr 3-4 1915-1916 6.6 on Feb 2-3 1916-1917 7.6 on Mar 3-4 1917-1918 10.2 on Jan 27-28 1918-1919 3.0 on Mar 14 1919-1920 6.0 on Feb 4-5 1920-1921 7.0 on Feb 20 1921-1922 12.3 on Jan 27-28 1922-1923 5.8 on Feb 6-7 1923-1924 6.8 on Apr 1-2 1924-1925 6.7 on Jan 2-3 1925-1926 9.3 on Feb 9-10 1926-1927 5.3 on Jan 15-16 1927-1928 10.4 on Jan 28-29 1928-1929 8.3 on Feb 20-21 1929-1930 2.6 on Dec 23 1930-1931 2.1 on Dec 23 1931-1932 4.7 on Mar 21 1932-1933 8.4 on Feb 11 1933-1934 7.8 on Feb 25-26 1934-1935 14.8 on Jan 22-23 1935-1936 6.2 on Dec 29-30 1936-1937 3.5 on Mar 11 1937-1938 3.6 on Feb 20 1938-1939 7.2 on Nov 26-27 1939-1940 7.8 on Feb 14-15 1940-1941 15.1 on Feb 28-Mar 1 1941-1942 4.5 on Jan 4 1942-1943 2.9 on Dec 9 1943-1944 4.8 on Mar 4-5 1944-1945 7.7 on Jan 15-16 1945-1946 9.2 on Dec 19 1946-1947 10.6 on Feb 20-21 1947-1948 8.1 on Feb 4-5 1948-1949 7.4 on Dec 19 1949-1950 0.9 on Feb 1 1950-1951 1.8 on Jan 30-31 1951-1952 6.0 on Mar 1 1952-1953 7.1 on Mar 8 1953-1954 10.0 on Jan 10-11 1954-1955 3.9 on Feb 1-2 1955-1956 8.7 on Mar 18-19 1956-1957 2.0 on Jan 14-15 1957-1958 13.0 on Feb 15-16 1958-1959 2.9 on Jan 26-27 1959-1960 8.2 on Mar 3-4 1960-1961 14.6 on Dec 11-12 1961-1962 6.8 on Mar 6 1962-1963 4.4 on Jan 26 1963-1964 7.2 on Jan 12-13 1964-1965 6.6 on Jan 10 1965-1966 8.3 on Jan 29-30 1966-1967 12.7 on Dec 24-25 1967-1968 4.9 on Nov 30 1968-1969 4.6 on Feb 19-20 1969-1970 5.1 on Dec 25-26 1970-1971 5.5 on Dec 31-Jan 1 1971-1972 3.7 on Feb 19-20 1972-1973 Trace on many dates 1973-1974 6.0 on Feb 8 1974-1975 4.6 on Feb 4-5 1975-1976 6.9 on Mar 9 1976-1977 4.4 on Jan 14 1977-1978 13.6 on Feb 6-7 1978-1979 14.3 on Feb 18-19 1979-1980 5.2 on Jan 4-5 1980-1981 8.8 on Mar 5 (my birthday!) 1981-1982 9.1 on Jan 13-14 1982-1983 21.3 on Feb 11-12 1983-1984 7.3 on Mar 8-9 1984-1985 3.5 on Jan 17 1985-1986 4.0 on Feb 11 1986-1987 8.8 on Jan 22 1987-1988 3.9 on Jan 25-26 1988-1989 5.1 on Jan 6 1989-1990 4.6 on Nov 22-23 1990-1991 6.4 on Dec 27-28 1991-1992 2.1 on Mar 22 1992-1993 12.0 on Mar 13-14 1993-1994 5.6 on Feb 8-9 1994-1995 8.8 on Feb 3-4 1995-1996 30.7 on Jan 7-8 1996-1997 3.9 on Mar 31-Apr 1 1997-1998 0.5 on Jan 23-24 1998-1999 4.8 on Mar 14-15 1999-2000 8.5 on Jan 25 2000-2001 9.0 on Dec 30 2001-2002 4.0 on Jan 19-20 2002-2003 18.7 on Feb 16-17 2003-2004 4.8 on Dec 5-6 2004-2005 12.6 on Jan 22-23 2005-2006 12.0 on Feb 11-12 2006-2007 4.3 on Feb 13-14 2007-2008 3.2 on Feb 22 2008-2009 9.0 on Mar 1-2 2009-2010 28.5 on Feb 5-6 2010-2011 15.1 on Jan 26-27 2011-2012 2.3 on Jan 21 2012-2013 1.5 on Jan 25 2013-2014 13.5 on Jan 21

Rayno?

I think he's referring to EPAWA. Quite a few of their forecasters are not degreed meteorologists.

Well, where they *thought* they went wrong, anyway... (I didn't read it myself as I avoid them like the plague, but I'm told by other meteorologists who did read it, that the explanation was not really correct... but again, that's heresay)

Technically nothing is out of the realm. That doesn't mean its a good forecast. 18:1 ratios is a total reach. Not getting that.

You must've missed my post about the EC QPF in ABE and RDG... 9" is not supported by the EC.

I don't think so.

Granted he just wrote " -1" " on his map, but a cursory examination of his map would suggest that its really "up to 1 inch", and the 1" line is actually over ABE. That said, I still don't see how they get much of anything. Certainly his forecast snow map is NOT supported by the 0Z GFS or NAM or the 12Z Euro.

No, they don't. Its done before the cold air moves in. Gotta look at soundings and not just the 850 temps. Low levels stay warm til its all done.

That seemed to be a better surge of cold advection than this one. This system is stronger and holds it up. NW of I-95 it will probably make it... along I-95 itself...

The old thread was over 1,000 replies... So... what's JB think for this summer?

I have placed a topic in the general forum regarding the revised NWS snow measurement guide... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41853-new-nws-snow-measurement-guide/

We had a SCEP who was hired as an intern here in Elko from 2009-2010. He went on to be a forecaster at HPC very quickly.

Here's a good essay which suggests that the situation in Meteorology is not at all dissimilar to what's going on in most other college majors... http://www.cracked.com/blog/5-ways-we-ruined-occupy-wall-street-generation/ I quoted the 5, 4 and 3 below as they are related to this discussion topic...